Who’s the Odd Man Out In the Mets’ New Rotation?

With Pedro Martinez coming off the disabled list Friday, the Mets are suddenly in an unusual position. A team that has been applying duct tape and wood glue to the back of its rotation all season suddenly has six viable starters — Martinez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey. Manager Willie Randolph has indicated that he’ll go to a sixman rotation for at least one turn, a good idea in that it will give every pitcher a bit of extra rest and allow him an extra chance to evaluate the staff. Still, doing this only delays the inevitable. At some point the Mets will have to choose someone to go to the bullpen or the minors. Who should it be?Obviously the three veterans at the top of the rotation aren’t going anywhere, which leaves the decision as one between Hernandez, Maine, and Pelfrey. Given Hernandez’s legendary postseason exploits as a starter and Pelfrey’s importance to the team’s future, one would think Maine would be the odd man out, but his recent stretch of 17 scoreless innings and, even more so, the life he’s shown on his fastball since coming off the disabled list complicate things.The factors at play aren’t complicated. In Hernandez’s case, the Mets need to do whatever will make him the most effective in October. That could mean starting him every fifth day to keep him sharp, or it could be putting him in the bullpen and preparing him for a role as a shutdown long reliever similar to the way in which the Chicago White Sox used him last October. In the absence of a surprise acquisition over the next few days, Hernandez will be relied on to play a crucial role in the postseason, and so his needs should probably be given the highest priority.In Pelfrey’s case, the important thing is his development. His main weakness right now is command of his secondary pitches. Given the life on his fastball he can be effective with just one good one, and so moving to a long relief role and focusing on just his curve or slider probably wouldn’t hamper his development in the least; it would also give the team another strong reliever, allowing what’s been a somewhat overworked bullpen a bit of a respite. On the other hand, he’s only been a professional pitcher for just under four months, and he needs innings like any other pitching prospect.In Maine’s case, the question is what exactly the Mets have on their hands. When the Mets traded for him this winter, I figured he’d be about as effective as Trachsel or Kris Benson — good for 180 or so innings with an ERA slightly above or slightly below league average, at a cheap salary. When healthy this year, he’s shown he can do that, and perhaps do a bit better than that — maybe even enough to be counted on as a rotation fixture for the playoffs and next year. He’s the one pitcher out of this group who might have a long-term future in the bullpen, though. As basically a two-pitch pitcher, he fits the same profile Aaron Heilman did last year — someone who may be effective but inconsistent as a starter, but could be devastating if allowed to focus on throwing his fastball harder for short stints.Further complicating everything is Brian Bannister, who will be off the disabled list soon enough. While a decent option as a fifth starter, he’s probably the least among these pitchers — the old baseball law, though, is that even a rookie shouldn’t lose his job due to injury, so he’ll be getting a chance to make some starts at some point, too, given his health.Those are the realities — conflicting priorities as to the long-term good of the team as against the chance of winning a World Series, questions about who’s best suited to actually help the team out of the bullpen, and the mildly unpleasant fact that of everyone the Mets have on hand, Trachsel may actually be the one who, all things being equal (which they never are), least deserves to be in the rotation. His reliable mediocrity is a lot less appealing with younger, harder throwing pitchers of the sort around, and his 17/13 BB/K ratio this month matches the impression you get watching him, which is that he may finally just be losing it.While I expect that this “problem” will solve itself with someone going on the DL at some point (pitching surpluses have a way of working themselves out), I’d say the best option would be sending Pelfrey to the minors. He hasn’t done a thing wrong since his call-up, but the choice between giving him innings and having him focus on his secondary stuff is a pretty silly one when you think about it — in Triple-A, he can do both. Give Randolph credit for being open-minded about the matter, but right now, this seems like a no-brainer.tmarchman@nysun.com

Who’s the Odd Man Out In the Mets’ New Rotation?

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