Here are two hopefully uncontroversial principles:

a) People are likely to do in the future more or less what they’ve done in the past.

b) People are not likely to do obviously stupid or unnecessary things.

If we grant that these two things are true, then we grant that Mets general manager Omar Minaya isn’t likely to make some bold, provocative blockbuster trade this summer, even if the team’s recent abysmal play continues. He’ll cut some deals, and they’ll almost certainly be good ones; they may even be brilliant. There’s no reason to believe, though, that he’s going to do anything big, like trade for Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano, Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn, Houston’s Brad Lidge, or any of the other famous players whose names are starting to circulate as trading season begins.

I’m sure of this because I believe in the two principles listed above. Take the first. Minaya has now been running the Mets for nearly three years, and in that time he’s made a straight baseball trade for a premium player exactly once, when he acquired Carlos Delgado in exchange for three prospects. Even that deal was mostly about Florida’s disinclination to pay Delgado. Every other trade Minaya has made has either been a deal in which he picked up someone like Shawn Green or Oliver Perez, who made more money than their teams wanted to pay them; a deal in which he sent away someone like Kaz Matsui or Mike Cameron, who didn’t have a clear role on the team, or a deal in which he shipped off role players and fringe prospects left over from the Jim Duquette era in exchange for other teams’ role players and fringe prospects.

Minaya’s track record is good not because he’s making the kinds of sexy deals that end up on the front pages of the tabloids, but because he and his lieutenants have simply done a good job of picking out players in need of a fair shot, a new environment, or who might thrive in a certain role. He hasn’t had to deal any really significant talent because he’s targeted players at a low point in their value, either because they weren’t playing well or had a bad contract or were just underappreciated. It’s been a successful approach, and there’s not much reason to expect it will change.

The second principle is equally important. Take the idea of trading for a stud starter like Zambrano, should he become available. I’m sure that if Cubs GM Jim Hendry called Queens claiming a willingness to pay any price and bear any burden, his ace included, to lay hands on Damion Easley and Ben Johnson, Minaya would take him up on it. Short of that, why would the Mets use scarce resources to make a trade of a sort they don’t make for a kind of player they don’t need? Horrible play of late aside, the Mets’ rotation is fine. The only starter who could conceivably be bumped for a new acquisition is Jorge Sosa, and he went into last night’s start 6–1 with a 2.65 ERA. Pedro Martinez, who’s not bad, is also due back later this summer. To a lesser degree, this logic applies to second base and left field. That leaves the bullpen, and when you look at the relievers for whom Minaya has traded — the likes of Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Jorge Julio, and Ambiorix Burgos — there’s little indication that he’s likely to ship off anything of value for a famous name.

Given all this, what sort of Metsimproving deals might make sense? Just as an illustration, I’d look to Chicago’s North Side, past the rambunctious ace and to the minor leagues, where the Cubs, with their usual deftness, have buried two players the Mets might find pretty useful. Just yesterday, the Cubs demoted 25-year-old left fielder Matt Murton, who’s hit .294 with middling power in his career. He’s a passable regular with the potential to be a bit more, but the Cubs have a crowded outfield and, well, they’re the Cubs. One of Murton’s teammates in Iowa will be 24-year-old second baseman Eric Patterson, brother of unloved former Cub Corey Patterson, who’s hitting .310 BA/.367 OBA/.509 SLG, is probably an average or better major league second baseman right now, and is blocked behind pricey veteran Mark DeRosa and 432 other lighthitting utility infielders.

These aren’t sexy names, admittedly. Mets fans groaning over the death of a thousand cuts the team has endured aren’t looking for a slow, oafish left fielder who’s hit .252 with one home run this year and a minor league second baseman. They are though what the Mets could actually use — solid young players who just need a chance, won’t cost the jewels of the farm system, and can be used as reserves. I don’t recall anyone doing backflips over the acquisitions of John Maine, Duaner Sanchez, or Oliver Perez, but those deals worked out pretty well.

Big names are big names; the Mets trade for ballplayers.

tmarchman@nysun.com