Other than Mariano Rivera,there isn’t a better or more consistent closer in all of baseball than Billy Wagner. With the exception of 2000, when he was injured, Wagner has never posted an ERA higher than 2.85 or struck out less than 10 batters per nine innings in any season. His career save rate is 87%, just a hair lower than Rivera’s 88%.He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 1.51 ERA, struck out 87, and walked just 20 in 77 2 /3 innings while pitching in a bandbox in Philadelphia. (On the road, his ERA was 0.90, and he allowed opponents a .118 batting average.) In all, there isn’t a better bet among closers to be worth his money next year.

That’s a good thing, because he’s getting an awful lot of it – $43 million over four years.

Given the context in which the Mets are operating, the money isn’t a big deal. The team still has another $5 million or so to spend before it even hits last year’s payroll. Last season, more people saw baseball at Shea Stadium than in any year since 1989.Also, the Mets are starting their own sports network this year, and, due to a quirk in baseball’s labor agreement, they won’t have to pay the luxury tax this year no matter how much they spend.

Maybe more important is the fact that the Mets are now, arguably, the favorites for the National League pennant. Assume, for the sake of argument, that Wagner is worth five wins more than a bargain basement closer during the course of a season. If those five wins take a team from 65 to 70 wins, they’re obviously not worth $11 million. If they take a team from 80 to 85 wins, they’re still probably not. If they take a team from 90 to 95 wins, they probably are, especially for a rich team like the Mets.

When one considers a) the fact that the Mets’ runs scored and allowed were in line with those of an 89-win team this year, b) expected improvements from Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, and c) the replacement of the worst corps of first basemen in baseball with Carlos Delgado, they were a 90-win team on paper before signing Wagner.

Right now, they look like one of the elite teams in the game, and a reasonably good bet to win the World Series – probably a better bet than the Yankees, though that’s a column for another day. If Wagner helps them win it all, which is what he’s being paid to do, no one’s going to care what he does or what he’s getting paid when he’s 38.

What should trouble Mets rooters isn’t the money being spent here, or even the commitment to an old player. Rather, it’s that general manager Omar Minaya has yet to show he can do anything other than swing for the fences. There’s a lot to be said for his approach – last year, the Mets got less from their first basemen and closers than any other team in baseball, and he went right out and got the absolute best available players for the roles, which will make an enormous difference in the standings.

But the downside of that approach is that it isn’t always needed. The old saw about how every problem looks like a nail when all you have is a hammer applies here. Rumors have Minaya interested in trading prospects for all sorts of superfluous and expensive veterans like Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Javier Vazquez, when at this point all the team needs are finishing-touch players found on the lower ends of the free agency and trade markets: a solid defensive catcher who will hold up over 130 games, a good defensive second baseman who can cover for the flawed defense of Reyes and Delgado, and perhaps a middle reliever or two.

The Mets don’t need to trade top prospect Lastings Milledge for Soriano or Ramirez; they need to trade some pitching depth for Orlando Hudson, the Blue Jays’ 27-year-old Gold Glover. They don’t need Vazquez; they need to commit to giving Jae Seo 30 starts. They certainly don’t need Ramirez; they need to commit to seeing what Victor Diaz can do in right field, and keep a few dollars in the kitty should they end up needing to trade for a veteran replacement in June.

All credit to Minaya for understanding that great teams are driven by great players, for identifying great players, and for going out and getting them. This team has made a habit in the past of spending incredible money on bad players it thought were stars. But the Mets have a unique opportunity. Wagner’s and Delgado’s contracts will be up after the 2008 season. In 2009, Reyes and David Wright will be 26, Diaz 27, and Beltran 32. Milledge will be all of 24. There’s no reason not to go for it all right now, but there’s also no reason to act as if there’s no tomorrow. Bright as the Mets’ immediate future looks, the more distant one looks still brighter.

tmarchman@nysun.com