Alex Rodriguez’s health is a question mark as of this writing. Jorge Posada is grinding through a shoulder injury. The team has a .500 record and a slate of 17 games against Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Mets — none an easy mark — coming up. This would be a bad time for the Yankees to run into a brick wall of strong pitching.

On paper, that looks like what they’ll be getting when they visit the South Side for a three-game set beginning tonight. Somewhat improbably, the White Sox have allowed just 66 runs so far this year, 11 less than any other team in the American League. Even if it’s only three weeks into the season, you have to take that seriously. And while any team’s starting rotation will look a lot better if you ignore the contributions of its least-effective member, it’s worth noting that their worst starter so far has been their ace, Mark Buehrle. He’s been throwing beach balls; apart from him, the rotation’s earned run average stands at a neat, round 3.00, which nicely matches the bullpen’s 3.08 mark. The Yankees, it seems, will have to work to get a rough stretch off to a good start.

This may be so, but the way things line up, the Sox should probably be the more worried of the two teams. Their pitching staff’s hot start isn’t exactly phantasmal, but it likely has a bit to do with a pretty sound defense, some brutally cold temperatures in the upper Midwest earlier this month, and six games against an unexpectedly ice-cold Detroit lineup. The defense might remain sound, but balmy temperatures are expected in Chicago this week, and the Yankees are not the frauds who were running around in Tigers uniforms earlier this month. If anything, the Sox, for stylistic reasons, might invigorate the Yankee attack.

One of Chicago’s main strengths this year has been the excellence of two young starters, 23-year-old John Danks and 25-year-old Gavin Floyd, who have combined for a 2.30 ERA in 43 innings. It’s too early in the year for that to mean all that much, but Danks, a relatively hard-throwing left hander who’s refined a nice changeup, looks to be in the midst of a real breakout. He’s the sort of pitcher who could well give the Yankees fits; fortunately for them, though, they won’t be facing him this week.

Floyd is another story, though. Formerly a top prospect with the Philadelphia Phillies, he can be nasty when he’s on — he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Detroit two weeks ago — but is eminently hittable when he isn’t. His basic problem is that he throws a half-dozen different pitches, none of which is all that distinct from any other in speed or movement. He’ll be starting tomorrow night; look for the Yanks to start the game off looking weak, and to start hammering him once they’ve sorted through and timed his various offerings.

If this prediction holds, the Sox will end up relying on two other starters, former Yankees Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras, both of whom these days follow the Chicago pitching style of throwing the fastball about half the time and otherwise mixing their pitches. Vazquez, who’s struck out 240 against 56 walks in 242 innings since the beginning of last year, these days much more closely resembles the buzz saw for whom the Yanks thought they were trading in 2003 than he does the durable no. 4 they actually got. Contreras, though, is more or less the same chucker the team couldn’t wait to get rid of, and the Yankees should be able to wait him out.

The prospect of getting one really strong start out of these three pitchers would leave things largely in the hands of the Chicago bullpen, which is less intimidating than that early ERA makes them look. Closer Bobby Jenks touches the high 90s on occasion, but his fastball flattens out a bit when he does, and he does it too much. Setup man Scott Linebrink relies on deception and movement a bit more than you’d like to see from someone in his role. Lefty Matt Thornton, who will presumably see some key at bats, is maybe the most consistently hard-throwing pitcher on the staff, but he’s actually showed a reverse platoon split over his career; Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, and Jason Giambi will have less to fear from him than it may seem.

None of this is to say that the Sox will prove pushovers — their offense will have its say, and even if Contreras and Floyd look like easy prey for the Yankees’ patient approach, that’s not necessarily how the games will play out. Still, with a crucial three weeks coming up, and with the season looking like it’s nearing one of those decisive points that always seem to come awfully early for the Yankees, things are looking manageable. Better to lose sleep over Hank Steinbrenner’s yapping than over what is purportedly the best staff in the league.

tmarchman@nysun.com