Before the 2005 season started, this certainly looked to be the Year of the Old Pitcher.

The Yankees and Red Sox each imported a left-handed geezer – Randy Johnson and David Wells, respectively – in their eternal bid to become still more like Itchy and Scratchy. The Mets were depending on Tom Glavine, whose former teammate Al Leiter had joined the Marlins; the Rangers were hoping that Kenny Rogers would stay strong; and the Mariners pinned some of their slim hopes for a return to relevance on the ancient Jamie Moyer.

Some teams were even hoping for big things from righthanded oldsters.The Cubs were counting on Greg Maddux to continue his surreal string of 15-win seasons; the Yankees on Kevin Brown to fill in the rear of their rotation; and of course the Astros were looking for Roger Clemens to add an eighth Cy Young season to his incredible resume.

Right now, 2005 is looking more like the year teams discovered why you don’t count on old pitchers: Wells and Johnson are injured, while Brown and Glavine have been terrible. Still, a bit of perspective is in order.

All nine of the above pitchers are at least 39 years old.Ten years ago, only one pitcher 39 or older, Dennis Martinez, qualified for the ERA title.Twenty years ago, four did, two of them knuckleballers.Thirty years ago, none did. Forty years ago, there was just one: Warren Spahn.

So in one sense, what’s most surprising isn’t that some among these pitchers,like Clemens and Rogers,have been effective this year. It’s that all of these men are pitching at all. Common sense says that if a man is holding down a rotation spot at 39, he’s very good; given the choice between a bad 39-year-old pitcher and one 15 years younger, every team is going to choose the kid, who presumably has at least a chance of improving. No matter the advances that have been made in the last decade in training and medical care, it’s stunning that there are nine geriatric pitchers around these days.

What isn’t surprising is that most of these pitchers are healthy. A pitcher who endures to age 39 is far likelier to lose his job because he’s ineffective than because he’s hurt. Those who don’t have the conditioning or mechanics to stay healthy as they age generally wash out in their early or mid 30s.

For all these reasons, Mets and Yankees fans, though justifiably aggrieved by the miserable performances of Glavine, 39, and Brown, 40, might want to put down their torches and pitchforks and consider the possibility that the two warhorses might have something left to offer. Whenever a pitcher of this age goes through a bad stretch, people rush to assume that they have nothing left.That’s almost certainly not the case.

Skepticism is, of course, in order. Glavine is 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA, and he’s allowing two baserunners per inning. Brown has been even worse – he’s 0-4 with an 8.25 ERA. Still, there’s cause for optimism.

In Glavine’s case, the bad start is almost entirely the result of his having walked 22 men in six starts. His rates of strikeouts (5.28/9 innings) and home runs allowed (1.2/9) are perfectly fine. Walking that many men is no small thing, but it can only be caused by one of two things: Either he’s physically incapable of throwing strikes (he’s not), or some flaw in his delivery has caused him to temporarily lose his command – and this, in combination with getting squeezed by umpires, has led to the bad start.

Something similar happened to Moyer last year, when he posted a 5.21 ERA at age 41, leading to an assumption that he was done. Moyer, though, looks like his old self this year: He’s 4-0, with a 3.53 ERA.

Pitchers like Moyer and Glavine don’t last two decades in the majors without the ability to correct and refine flaws in their deliveries or to adjust to ungenerous umpiring. It may be ugly for a while, but Glavine, as he has many times before, will figure out how to correct things and go on to pitch many seven-inning, three-run games. Temporarily eschewing the outside changeup for the low fastball and promising to attend charitable golf tournaments held by umpires are the sorts of things that may well pay dividends for the crafty veteran.Those with elephant-like memories may even recall the 2003 season, when Glavine gave up a lot of walks and wasn’t very good, and how last year he was very good, pitching 212 1/3 innings with a 3.60 ERA; the lesson is instructive.

Brown is the real cause of ire around the city; already despised for last year’s inglorious playoff choke, the surly exace committed the remarkable feat of giving up eight runs to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Tuesday.

As in Glavine’s case, though, one number explains all of Brown’s miseries: He’s given up 41 hits in 24 innings. That’s a .380 opponent’s average.He hasn’t been walking many batters and he has been striking them out. He’s also given up only two home runs in 24 innings.The sole reason he’s been terrible is a ceaseless dribble of balls just past a diving Derek Jeter, just in front of Bernie Williams, etc. It takes a lot of work to give up 22 runs in 24 innings, and Brown hasn’t been doing all of it.

As many have noted, Brown’s difficulties appear to be the result of an inability to get loose before games. From the first through third innings, he turns hitters into Barry Bonds, allowing a 1.175 OPS; from the fourth through the sixth, he turns them into pitchers, as they hit for a .558 OPS. Changes in his routine and something resembling major league defense behind him could well transform Brown back into a perfectly acceptable starter.

It may well be that one or both of Glavine and Brown are done. Perhaps Glavine has lost the small edge that allowed him to succeed for so long with marginal stuff; perhaps Brown will not find any way to solve his early-game woes. I doubt it. Glavine is a sure Hall of Famer, and Brown a reasonable candidate; so long as both retain the physical ability to pitch well, I expect them to figure out a way to do so.

Should my suspicions be accurate, this will after all look an awful lot like what it was predicted to be – a glorious year for the old-timers. Clemens has been the best in the game, yet again. Johnson has been very good and should continue to be so, minor groin pulls notwithstanding. Maddux, Moyer, and Rogers should remain effective.This is a remarkable thing,unprecedented in the history of the game; instead of waiting for these pitchers to collapse and clucking our tongues when they do, maybe we should be giving them the credit they deserve.