The Latest Iran Leak — a Call to Arms?

The latest leaked “government assessment” minimizes the amount of destruction to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites bombed by Israel and America in June. We’ll let others debate the motives of the leaker, or leakers, and that of the leak recipient, in this case the National Broadcasting Company. The blockbuster leaked Thursday can either be read as a dismissal of President Trump’s action in Iran or, alternatively, as a call to arms and further attacks. The report was given to the Pentagon and allied countries, and “was briefed to some U.S. lawmakers,” according to NBC. That could hint to who leaked and for what purpose. Then there are the report’s findings: Of the three nuclear sites targeted with bunker-buster bombs, one, Fordow, was mostly destroyed. Natanz and Isfahan, though, suffered less damage and the mullahs can resume enrichment there in months if they decide to do so. The NBC headline is “hyped up nonsense,” the Institute for Science and International Security’s founder, David Albright, writes on X. Isfahan, he notes, is not an enrichment site. Two bunker-buster bombs were dropped at the Natanz enrichment site. The leaked report, he adds, might have referred to tunnels at the Isfahan complex, where Iran is suspected to have hidden enriched uranium. Or to a mountain complex near Natanz. Yet, he notes, these sites can’t be destroyed by GBU-57s, as the heavy bombs are known. What is noteworthy in the report, though, is its finding that the strike at Fordow — the deeply dug, most formidable enrichment site — was successful. Mr. Albright is a physicist who has long reported accurately on Iran’s nuclear program. Are the unidentified writers of the government report, or the six NBC reporters who echoed them, as reliable?The report claims that Mr. Trump rejected a Pentagon plan for more sustained strikes than Operation Midnight Hammer’s one-night hit. On the one hand, that seems to denigrate the president’s resolve. On the other hand, it also might prompt him to renew the bombing. Israel, for one, is saying that if its intelligence were to detect resumption of nuclear activities, it would immediately dispatch its fighter jets and drones to Iran. Mr. Trump agrees. Jerusalem and Washington are, at least for now, hoping that their joint military action would force Iran to agree on a diplomatic pact that, unlike the 2015 nuclear deal, would truly block a path to a bomb. Would the NBC leak help such a deal, or could it convince Tehran that America and Israel are paper tigers? The latter could stiffen the mullahs’ resolve. They’re already boasting of a “victory” in the June war. Will they now buy their own propaganda?This week the three European countries — Britain, France, and Germany — that were party to the appeasement of 2015 announced that unless a new deal can be reached by the end of August, they would trigger the “snapback” option. It would resume all mandatory global sanctions that existed before the 2015 deal was enshrined in a United Nations resolution. Snapback expires in October. Sanctions can start within 30 days after triggering it. Secretary Rubio and his European counterparts reportedly agreed Monday on triggering the snapback at the UN Security Council. We are “justified in reapplying global embargoes on arms, banks, and nuclear equipment that were lifted 10 years ago,” the French foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, said Tuesday. “Without a firm, tangible, and verifiable commitment from Iran, we will do so by the end of August at the latest.” The Europeans seem eager to conclude a deal, and see snapback as a threat that would push the Iranians to negotiate in earnest. As yet, the mullahs seem uninterested. They’ve threatened to resume their program and keep out the international inspectors they have expelled. They could leave the non-proliferation treaty or even test a bomb. Either way, America, Israel, and even the Europeans seem less forgiving than they used to be.

The Latest Iran Leak — a Call to Arms?

The Latest Iran Leak — a Call to Arms?

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