The phrase “process of elimination” is taking on a new meaning in the eastern Mediterranean as Israel delivers one astonishing blow after another to the bad guys. Where this process ends — Tehran? — no one knows, or if they do they’re not saying. Yet as the contours of a new Middle East take shape with breathtaking speed, things that happened during the Trump presidency and even before offer some clues.

Shortly before Christmas 2017, President Trump made official that he would carry out the will of an almost unanimous Congress and recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital city. Despite some dire prognostications, regional chaos did not ensue. Tel Aviv could rest easy — if ever there were a city made to not wear the mantle of even de facto officialdom, it was that commercial powerhouse and cosmopolitan seaside dynamo.

Not long after came the Abraham Accords. The normalization of ties between a number of Arab states and Israel began in earnest in September 2020 when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognized Israel’s sovereignty. Soon Sudan and Morocco followed by signing normalization agreements with Israel. Despite the present maelstrom in Lebanon, no signatory to the Abraham Accords has threatened to revoke them.

Neither are Israel’s treaties with Egypt and Jordan in any question.  On the contrary, there is a sense of regional relief as Israel does the heavy lifting part of reducing the Iranian threat. Plus, too, recall that in April, when Iran launched 300 missiles and drones toward Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia participated in the protective shield that helped thwart the attack. 

There is no question that Israel suffers from an enduring public relations problem. Jerusalem has other priorities besides reputation management. That said, Israel’s international isolation, while it appears to be turning a corner, cannot obfuscate the non-belligerence of many Arab and Islamic states in the tempestuous neighborhood. 

However strong the indignation of Arab public opinion towards the momentous events  in Gaza over the past several months and its present fallout in Lebanon, it has not translated into what might be termed disruptive choices by the Arab leadership. International criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu, and secondarily of the Biden administration, is par for the course, but many Arab governments rightly believe that the real danger in the Middle East is Iran. 

Consider too the relative silence of Syria. Only Turkey, really, appears to be squawking as Israel makes overdue inroads on Iran’s proxies, but no one is really interested. The ongoing show — of Israeli strength, that is — is far more compelling than flippant protestations from Ankara.

There is also something that did not happen during the Obama administration that offers a clue — it involved Damascus at a time when the Middle East was being buffeted by different currents. In 2013, after Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad perpetrated what Mr. Obama called “the worst chemical weapons attack of 21st century,” the scent of American military action was in the air. 

This correspondent, then based at Jaffa, remembers jittery conversations around the watercooler — if Washington strikes Syria, might not Hezbollah fire rockets at Israel? And would that not mean war? Hezbollah, after all, had done it before. In 2013 the memory of the 2006 Lebanon war was fresher; the Iran-backed terror proxy fired rockets at Haifa in that conflict.

As it turns out though, apprehensions were misplaced. Mr. Obama called off military strikes at the last minute. He characteristically sought to portray that decision as an act of courage, but that is another story. The bigger one, it now seems clear, is that fears of Hezbollah reprisals were overblown. They are still, or so it would appear. Hassan Nasrallah and his threats will torment the Israelis no more, though as when Perseus beheaded Medusa a few snakes will still wriggle. 

Israeli euphoria over Nasrallah’s demise should be measured, especially because what is left of Hamas is still holding Israeli hostages in Gaza. That said, there is something about the rollercoaster ride of recent events that recalls a scene from “The Wizard of Oz.” Early in that film the audience learned that the Wicked Witch of the East was dead — but also, that she had a sister. 

So this story has really only just begun. A new roll call of characters is in the works. Hezbollah’s tentacles run deep through Lebanese politics. One of the group’s  lawmakers, Hassan Fadlallah, told a local broadcaster on Monday that Iran is “on our side.”

Well, of course it is — but who is on Iran’s side, at least in the immediate vicinity? Practically speaking, no one. That in itself is stunning news. Combined with the courageousness of the IDF, it  makes the prospect of a leisurely weekend in Beirut — a long dormant dream for many a Levantine traveler — edge that much closer to reality. One might say it is all part of a process.