MEXICO CITY — President Sheinbaum led a mass gathering of jubilation on Sunday, days after the United States postponed for a second month 25 percent tariffs on Mexican imports, citing progress on drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Crowds waved Mexican flags as Ms. Sheinbaum praised the decision, saying, “Dialogue and respect have prevailed.”

How long Mexico can stave off President Trump’s wrath, though, is uncertain. United States 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are at the moment  set to take hold on Wednesday as planned, while the tariff pause on other Mexican goods is scheduled to expire on April 2.

Since taking office less than two months ago, Mr. Trump has vowed to use all tools in the arsenal to curb the deadly flow of fentanyl from cartel originating south of the border. At the peak of the fetanyl problem in 2023, fentanyl disguised in counterfeit prescription pills and other illicit drugs killed more than 70,000 Americans.

So, what else is Mr. Trump doing to crackdown? Are his threats and maximum pressure approach working? “I’m not a Trump fan per se,” one Mexican artist, who requested his name not be used, tells The New York Sun. “But what he’s done is working. It is forcing the government to act. Otherwise, nothing would change.”

Washington’s Hardline Approach 

Last month, Mr. Trump designated several Mexican drug cartels — including the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel — as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. This classification, typically reserved for groups like al-Qaeda, enables the United States government to employ enhanced measures, such as freezing assets, imposing travel bans, and prosecuting individuals who support them. 

“The uncertainty of potential U.S. military action against these cartels within the country has sparked a fear and panic within the narco-communities,” retired Drug Enforcement Administration Agent Wesley Tabor tells the Sun. “More importantly, local, state and federal Governments are scrambling to prepare for a potential fall out of ‘agreements’ with cartel factions.” 

While the move aims to intensify pressure on these criminal organizations, it has strained diplomatic relations with Mexico, which opposes the designation and emphasizes its sovereignty.

The designation also raises the possibility of United States military intervention, including drone strikes, to combat cartel activities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in his first call with Mexico’s top military officials on January 31, warned that if Mexico didn’t address government-cartel collusion, America was prepared to take unilateral military action. That shocked and angered Mexican officials. 

Mr. Hegseth’s warning, echoed by other Trump administration officials, now looms over trade talks, with fears that United States military action could accompany demands to curb fentanyl smuggling and migrant trafficking. Since that call, Mr. Hegseth has reiterated his stance publicly, while the United States has ramped up airborne surveillance along the border. 

The Central Intelligence Agency is also set to take a more assertive role against Mexican drug cartels, increasing intelligence sharing, training local counternarcotics units, and potentially conducting covert operations. CIA Director John Ratcliffe is focused on reallocating resources toward Mr. Trump’s mission, applying counterterrorism tactics against designated groups in far-flung battlefields, marking a significant and risky expansion of the agency’s focus.

The Impact South of the Border 

Responding to Mr. Trump’s concerns over migration and drug trafficking, Ms. Sheinbaum has deployed 10,000 troops to curb migrant movement toward its northern border, intensifying efforts to dismantle caravans and relocate migrants away from the border.  

Crossings — already on the decline in late 2024 — have plummeted to record lows. In February, United States officials faced just 200 migrants in a single day, an unprecedented drop. If this trend continues, annual Border Patrol apprehensions could reach levels not seen for almost six decades. 

“The current pressure from Trump on Mexico is highly effective. It’s been impactful in two specific areas: undocumented migrants crossing into the United States and fentanyl trafficking,” Mexico-based organized researcher and writer Ioan Grillo tells the Sun. Mexico’s leadership is wasting no time targeting cartels and their chiefdoms. 

Ms. Sheinbaum has ramped up cooperation with her northern counterparts, extraditing 29 high-profile cartel figures and allowing CIA drone intelligence to aid in their capture. The unprecedented transfer to United States custody earlier this month included Rafael Caro Quintero, accused of orchestrating the 1985 murder of DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena. For four decades, Washington’s request had been stalled in the Mexican court system. 

Ms. Sheinbaum is departing from the claims by her political ally and predecessor, President Obrador, that Mexico did not produce fentanyl. The new president has launched an aggressive crackdown on laboratories and trafficking networks, leading to record-breaking seizures of the deadly synthetic opioid.

This month, officials seized more than 13 pounds of fentanyl at Mexico City’s new airport. The drug was destined for New Jersey, following the discovery of almost 40 pounds concealed in a bus in Sonora. In December, after Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, Mexican authorities made a record 1,800-pound fentanyl capture in Sinaloa.  

In February, two American citizens wanted for fentanyl trafficking in the United States were arrested in Puerto Vallarta and extradited to Oklahoma.

Statistics on overdose deaths in the wake of such actions are not yet available. The United States Centers for Disease Control, however, reported that overdose deaths dropped by approximately 24 percent in the 12 months leading up to September 2024 from the same period the previous year.

Some analysts feared that Washington’s harsh strategy would propel Mexico City into the arms of Beijing, its second-largest trading partner after Washington, but this hasn’t been the case. In another apparent bid to address the concerns of the Trump administration, Mexico has imposed restrictions and tariffs on Chinese imports, including a 35 percent tariff on Chinese apparel and 19 percent on goods from Chinese online retailers such as Shein and Temu. 

Authorities have raided stores selling counterfeit Chinese goods, seized Chinese electronics, and halted plans for a Chinese electric vehicle factory. Mexico has also launched antidumping investigations and a program to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.

The Cartel Response 

So far, the response from the cartels started by the Trump team has been fairly muted. Mr. Grillo explained that the pressure Mr. Trump has placed on Ms. Sheinbaum has led to pressure on Mexican security forces “who, in turn, are pressuring the cartels, which forces the smaller criminals underneath them to fall in line.”

An analyst for the Soufan Center, Michaela Millender, concurs to the Sun that President Trump’s “renewed focus on cartels has seemingly increased pressure on the groups within Mexico, with fentanyl production in Sinaloa reportedly scaled back due to arrests, drug seizures, and lab busts.”

“Whether this crackdown leads to sustained pressure on these criminal groups and permanent disruption of operations and fentanyl flows remains to be seen. Cartels have historically proven to be adept at survival,” she said.

The Diplomatic Dance 

While Ms. Sheinbaum’s approval rating has soared to 80 percent five months into her term, balancing her left-leaning party’s stance with Trump administration relations is challenging. Though the President appears strong now, her political support could weaken if tensions with the United States harm the Mexican economy. Experts predict that if general tariffs are imposed, Mexico could see a contraction of over one percent of its GDP.

Whether Mexico’s efforts to date will be enough to appease Mr. Trump from re-installing the hefty tariffs and taking additional tough measures is yet to be determined. Mexico City-based Psychologist and Criminological Profiler Mónica Ramírez Cano tells the Sun that Trump’s “approach of pressuring Mexico is working to some extent” but warned that “corruption runs deep.”

“Cartel leaders continue to operate from inside prisons because they can bribe guards and officials. For many years, the politicians in power, both past and present, have not implemented effective strategies to control the cartels,” she said. 

“As a result, we have widespread impunity and corruption. What Trump has said about this situation is true—politicians, presidents, and many others in the government are linked to these organizations.”

Caught in the Crossfire 

Speaking earlier this month at the southern border, Vice President Vance emphasized that the administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration and designation of gangs as terrorist organizations primarily aimed to curb drug trafficking into the U.S. 

However, he added, “I believe this is also a major favor to the people of Mexico. If they don’t regain control over the cartels, they risk waking up in a narco-state where criminal organizations wield more power than the government.”

For many suffering at the hands of these brutal organizations, such a sentiment — irrespective of politics — rings true. “In Mexico, people see it as normal when someone disappears. This is why they don’t help because it’s normal for people to disappear,” Maria Guadalupe, whose son was “disappeared” by cartel operatives 15 years ago, tells the Sun. “It’s not just one person disappearing; it happens often. Sadly, it is not something unusual.”