Trump’s Lifting of Syria Sanctions Assumes Great Risk for Potential Reward

University student Amal was a small girl when the Syrian war broke out in the dying days of 2011. On Tuesday, the now 22-year-old was sweeping dust from the steps of her family’s pockmarked apartment in Homs when her neighbor shouted her name across the alleyway that the sanctions were going to be lifted. “I cried, everyone was clapping,” she tells the New York Sun. “We didn’t expect this at all.”That sentiment of excitement was felt across much of the war-wracked country. For millions of Syrians scarred by over a decade of relentless conflict, the words felt like something out of a dream.During his visit to Riyadh, and in a sharp turn in American foreign policy, President Trump announced last week the immediate “cessation” of all American sanctions on Syria, emphasizing the need to support Syria’s reconstruction efforts and give the embattled nation a “chance at greatness.” “This move provides a much-needed morale boost for Syrians who now feel hope,” advocacy manager at the D.C.-based Syria Campaign, Kenan Rahmani, tells The New York Sun. “This also ensures Russia’s influence in Syria is limited and staves off an impending economic collapse that would have allowed ISIS and Al Qaeda to be empowered. Keeping Syria isolated economically was a far greater danger to the region.”Mr. Trump met on Wednesday with Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former political chief of the dissolved Islamic terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which now runs the country. Mr. Trump described him as a “tough guy” who has “a real shot” of pulling the nation together.” Changes Inside Syria What does this American policy U-turn mean on the ground?“Lifting sanctions will jumpstart Syria’s economic recovery, enabling trade, foreign investment, and reconstruction,” Managing Director of Nestpoint Associates, John Thomas, tells the Sun. “This could mean restored electricity, rebuilt homes, and job creation through Gulf-funded projects. It also boosts humanitarian aid, easing food insecurity for 12.9 million Syrians.”For ordinary Syrians, it will mean easier access to money and international aid, the return of non-governmental organizations and refugees from abroad, and the import of crucial medical and reconstruction supplies. “The Syrian pound would strengthen due to an improved exchange rate. Electricity would become more available — both in homes and factories — enabling people to resume production and farming,” Christian Syrian reformist and defected Assad government adviser Ayman Abdel Nour tells the Sun. “Water pumps would work again, boosting agriculture.”The biggest boon, experts agree, is the re-opening of the banking sector for personal and business use. “Financial transactions would become easier; people could send money to support their families through banks, which is very difficult now,” Mr. Nour said. American sanctions on Syria date back to 1979 when Syria was, under the thumb of Hafiz al-Assad, designated a state sponsor of terrorism. These early measures restricted arms sales and put in place financial barriers. As the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, sanctions dramatically expanded, aiming to pressure the Assad regime, then led by son Bashar al-Assad, to end violence and pursue political reform. These later sanctions targeted various industries, including oil and gas, finance, military, and trade. They significantly intensified with the 2019 Caesar Act, which also penalized third parties dealing with the Syrian government.Syria today bears the deep scars of a brutal, multi-sided conflict. Over half a million people were killed, and more than 12 million were displaced. Cities were flattened, chemical weapons were used, and entire communities were torn apart. With over 90 percent of the population now living in poverty and basic infrastructure in ruins, Syria is a shattered nation struggling to rebuild from one of the most devastating wars of the 21st century.“Humanitarian conditions would improve. More funds could go toward education and health care, leading to better schools and hospitals,” said Mr. Nour. The change is significant for humanitarian agencies, as compliance burdens have long been constrained. Many had suspended work in Syria altogether, fearing legal repercussions under strict sanctions laws. The removal of sanctions also opens the doors to foreign investment, especially in oil, agriculture, and telecommunications for the new government.The Red FlagsMr. Trump’s decision, however, is not without concerns and controversy. “A sudden influx of capital could fuel corruption or empower unvetted actors. Without robust oversight, funds may not reach civilians, and China could exploit any chaos to expand its foothold,” Mr. Thomas warned. “And concerns still remain given the Al Qaeda roots. Their leaders have taken steps — renouncing terrorism, arresting ISIS fighters, and promising minority rights — to gain international trust. But many right question whether HTS has truly reformed.”The senior director of the Counter Extremism Project, Hans-Jakob Schindler, cautions that the opening of the banking system runs the risk of becoming “entangled with terrorism financing as there are still multiple terrorist groups operating in Syria apart from ISIS.”“It will be difficult to ensure that funds are not flowing to these individuals if sanctions are relieved without conditionality,” he said. “In addition, without sanctions as guardrails, aid diversion will become much harder to manage. Although humanitarian organizations do not like sanctions, they can act in their favor as guardrails against attempts by terrorist groups to extort them. Without sanctions, this is going to be much harder.”The December 2024 fall of Mr. Assad, long considered impossible, finally came to pass after his remaining loyalist strongholds at Damascus and Latakia fell to an opposition coalition led in part by figures from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Mr. Assad fled to Moscow and Mr. Sharaa was installed as interim president with the backing of Saudi Arabia and Turkey.Mr. Sharaa has since distanced himself from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s violent past and issued public statements of support for democracy, religious tolerance, and rebuilding a unified Syrian state. Yet some in the international community remain uneasy. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra, once Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, and despite breaking formal ties in 2016, many of its members remained involved in extremist activity for years. In 2018 Mr. Trump’s State Department designated the group a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Behind the ScenesMr. Trump’s surprise announcement reflects behind-the-scenes coordination with regional powerbrokers. The president publicly stated he was asked to make the move by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace,” Mr. Trump said. The president of the California-based, human rights-focused Syrian Institute for Progress, Saed Moujtahed, tells the Sun Mr. Sharaa “made a very strategic and smart move” when he reached out for Saudi support shortly after assuming office. “And this move was really courageous on Trump’s behalf. He is doing what is right for the region,” he continued. America, too, has policy and strategic incentives. The decision aligns with Mr. Trump’s broader Middle East strategy prioritizing economic engagement and regional stability over prolonged intervention. “President Trump has seized this moment and is aiming to cement U.S. leadership in the Middle East, outpacing China’s reconstruction bids. Trump wants to reshape the region, prioritizing U.S. and allied interests over China’s growing influence,” Mr. Thomas explained. “Strategically, the U.S. gains a foothold in Syria, reducing China’s and Russia’s influence by aligning Damascus with Western allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey.”Research Analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Ahmad Sharawi, points out that the United States is also “looking to reduce its military footprint in Syria.”“If Syria stabilizes — albeit under questionable leadership — it could allow for a phased withdrawal of American troops from the northeast,” he tells the Sun. “Economically, U.S. firms could gain early access to untapped energy resources and reconstruction contracts. However, these potential gains must be weighed against the risks of legitimizing a regime that includes sanctioned jihadist actors.”Others have pointed to the policy move as running against the interests of Washington’s strongest ally in the region, Israel, which continues to launch strategic bombing campaigns across its neighboring nation. “This deal does put Israel in a tough spot. On one hand, Assad is gone and Iran’s grip is loosening; both are wins for Israeli strategy. But a Syria controlled by HTS-aligned actors is a red line,” Syrian conflict analyst Ronnie Hamada tells the Sun. One expert on the Arab Middle East, James Bowden, tells the Sun that Israel would likely have to “put a halt to their bombing campaign, which has been designed to further erode Syrian military capacity and reduce the chances of a military confrontation.”Others see it as a benefit to Israel.“A stable Syria under U.S. orbit weakens Iran’s regional network, enhancing security for allies like Israel,” notes Mr. Thomas. “By leading this transition, Trump positions the U.S. as the Middle East’s power broker, outmaneuvering China in this proxy fight for global influence.”Between Hope and HistorySyrians piecing their lives together know the removal of sanctions does not bring back lost loved ones nor does it instantly rebuild their shattered homes. It could, however, mean a new chapter resembling some normalcy. “This decision opens the door for Syria to breathe again. It allows families to rebuild their lives with dignity, businesses to reopen, and young people to dream of a future in their own homeland,” Syrian American philanthropist and chairwoman for the Burnt Children Relief Foundation, Susan Baaj, tells the Sun. “That said, lifting sanctions must be done carefully. We must ensure that the benefits reach the people, not only those in power.”

Trump’s Lifting of Syria Sanctions Assumes Great Risk for Potential Reward

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