Trump’s Sanctions, Confounding Skeptics, Pinch Russia’s Oil Hose as New Peace Proposal Is Mooted

Confounding skeptics, President Trump’s sanctions are slashing Russia’s oil export earnings. Largely aimed at India and Communist China, the sanctions kick in tomorrow when a one-month grace period ends. Fearful of being cut out of the dollar zone, a dozen of the largest refiners of India and China have suspended imports of Russian oil.Measured in barrels, Russia’s seaborne oil exports fell during the first two weeks of November to 1.7 million barrels a day, the lowest level since President Putin launched his full-scale war against Ukraine. Bloomberg calculated yesterday that this is about half the level of January 2022, the month before the war started in earnest.Measured in dollars, Russia oil exports this month hit the lowest level in two-and-a-half years — $1.2 billion a week, Bloomberg calculated Tuesday. And the forecast is down. Shunned by refiners around the world, Russia’s Urals oil is selling for $36 a barrel, a nearly 40 percent discount off Brent crude, the comparable benchmark. Russia’s Novatek has to offer Chinese buyers discounts of 30 percent to 40 percent to sell liquefied natural gas from the Arctic, Reuters reported Tuesday. Sanctions are forcing Russia’s largest non-state company, Lukoil, to sell its $20 billion overseas empire — oil fields, refineries and gas stations.American sanctions “are having their intended effect of dampening Russian revenues by lowering the price of Russian oil and therefore the country’s ability to fund its war effort against Ukraine,” the American Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control reported Monday.In face of sanctions, the volume of “oil on water,” or oil stuck in tankers without an offloading destination, has grown to 1 billion barrels. About one-third of this is Russian. To unload this oil, shippers resort to a time-tested dodge on the high seas: turning off transponders and “laundering” Russian oil by transferring cargoes to other ships with fake bills of lading.While these stratagems may work for the small “teapot” refineries on China’s seacoast, Reuters and Bloomberg report that almost all of China and India’s big refineries have stopped booking Russian oil for December delivery. Chinese imports of Russian oil are on track to drop by two-thirds from the level of October 22, the day Mr. Trump sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil.Export sales of oil and gas account for about a quarter of Russia’s state revenue.Facing falling export revenues, the Kremlin has announced tax hikes for 2026. This is an unpopular move for a populace long accustomed to living in the low tax environment of a petrostate.On the American front, Mr. Trump looks at gasoline prices for next summer, the big driving season leading up to the midterm elections. Help may have come with yesterday’s visit to the White House by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. While professing friendship with Russia, Saudi Arabia is aggressively picking up Russia’s lost market share.With an oil glut on the horizon, Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will be undermined in 2026 by a surplus world production of 2 million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency predicts the oil surplus will be 4 million barrels a day.Parallel to American sanctions, President Volodymyr Zelensky inflicts his own brand of sanctions on Russia’s oil industry. Armed with home-made missiles that can fly as far as 1,800 miles, Ukraine carried out 10 attacks on Russian oil refineries so far this month — more than the eight recorded last month. Analysts say that Russia’s oil and gas industry has 60 key installations in Western Russia — refineries, tank farms, pumping stations and export terminals. This year, Ukrainian drones or missiles seem to have hit most of them at least once, causing billions of dollars in damage.All of Russia’s largest refineries were built — or rebuilt — after the fall of communism with Western technology. Sanctions make it difficult and expensive to buy replacement equipment. Chinese equipment is seen as inferior.In one recent, spectacular attack — filmed by foreign sailors on oil tankers — Ukrainian missiles on Friday pounded Russia’s largest oil-exporting terminal on the Black Sea, Novorossiysk. Although the port is now home port for the remnants of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, air defenses were inadequate. The massive oil terminal, source of 2 percent of the world’s oil, was closed for two days.The next day, Saturday, Ukrainian missiles hit Rosneft’s refinery, the second-largest in Western Russia, at Ryazan. The fifth drone or missile attack this year, the latest strike will knock the refinery offline until December, analysts tell Reuters. Yesterday, a train hauling tanker loads gas exploded at Perm — 1,000 miles east of Ukraine.These attacks may be just a taste of what is in store for 2026. Private Ukrainian defense company Fire Point plans next year to make 2,500 Flamingos, the missile with a range of 1,800 miles. Attracting international attention, Fire Point starts production next month of solid rocket fuel in Denmark. On Monday, the company announced that the former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is joining Fire Point’s advisory board. During the first Trump administration, Mr. Pompeo also served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.In public, Russia often blames “falling drone debris” for the spectacular refinery fire videos that appear on the Internet. Inside the Kremlin, though, Ukraine’s missile and drone attacks apparently are causing greater impact than mile-long gasoline lines.Yesterday, news reports from Washington and Kyiv leaked portions of a proposed Russian-American, 28-point peace proposal. Negotiated at Miami by Mr. Trump’s special peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, and President Putin’s special envoy for economic cooperation, Kirill Dmitriev, leaked versions of the proposal reads like a Russian wish list. In addition to cutting Ukraine’s army in half and giving Russia land it has been unable to conquer, the plan calls for taking away Ukraine’s long range missiles.Today at Kyiv, the American Army secretary, Dan Driscoll, and two four-star Army generals are to discuss the plan with Mr. Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials. Last night, the initial, unofficial response from Kyiv was negative. Ukraine launched a drone swarm attack against Moscow, Volgograd, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Tambov, Saratov, Rostov, Ryazan, Oryol, Bryansk, and Russian-occupied Crimea.

Trump’s Sanctions, Confounding Skeptics, Pinch Russia’s Oil Hose as New Peace Proposal Is Mooted

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