What Happened to the Dream of a Democratic China?

TAIPEI — Taiwan’s streets hum with calm: bullet trains glide south, scooters swarm like clockwork, and children play in markets. Yet beneath the surface, anxiety simmers — over the island’s fate, over a disappearing vision of a democratic China, and over a war that may no longer be avoidable.Today, Taiwan is a sovereign democracy, a tech powerhouse, and a flashpoint in global geopolitics. It is also the last vestige of a century-old dream: the idea that all of China — not just one island — could be ruled by constitutional law, elections, and public will. That vision, championed by revolutionaries like Sun Yat-sen — whose columns championing Chinese democracy were carried in, among other places, The New York Sun — lives on in Taiwan’s robust democratic institutions. Yet it faces an existential threat from Beijing, and growing uncertainty from within.A Democratic China That Never CameThe idea of a democratic China traces back to the early 20th century and the fall of the Qing dynasty. Sun Yat-sen, the Republic of China’s founding father, sought to unify the nation under a republican framework, laying the foundation for institutions like the Legislative Yuan.When the Communists took power in 1949, the Republic of China retreated to Taiwan, continuing to claim sovereignty over all of China. For decades, the Legislative Yuan bizarrely maintained representatives for provinces it no longer controlled, including Tibet and Xinjiang. These so-called eternal legislators were relics of a lost era — until democratic reforms in the 1990s finally eliminated their seats.“It became impossible to elect members who represented any Chinese provinces since the Republic of China no longer ruled China,” a Taipei-based writer and China researcher, Joyce Huang, tells the Sun. In 2005, the national assembly — a body symbolic of pan-China constitutionalism — was abolished. Taiwan, in essence, stopped pretending to be the government-in-exile of all China. It had become something different: a functioning, locally representative democracy.Today’s Legislative Yuan reflects Taiwan’s 23 million voices — not the 1.4 billion on the mainland. While some older figures still talk about unification under democracy, most Taiwanese focus on protecting their freedoms.A Democracy Under ThreatThe once-empowered dream, however, is not just fading — it’s being threatened. The Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has intensified rhetorical and military pressure on Taiwan, making clear that the Communist Party still sees the island as a breakaway province.“China is less resilient than Russia. If they fail to take Taiwan quickly — like Russia failed in Ukraine — it could cause chaos inside China,” a city councilor in Keelung, Jiho Chang, who was one of the founding members of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, a student-led protest for democracy and transparency in Taiwan’s dealings with China, tells the Sun. Mr. Chang highlighted that the most “ideal” road to full-scale democracy would be for “China to slowly lose power peacefully, like what happened to the Soviet Union under Gorbachev.”“On the way, China might lose control over places like Inner Mongolia, Tibet, and Xinjiang, where separatist movements would likely grow,” he explained. “India and other neighbors would also take advantage of China’s weakening. That would be the best outcome for Taiwan-China distracted and weakened by its own internal problems.”Yet the path toward any peaceful resolution seems increasingly narrow. Mr. Xi’s nationalism hinges on reclaiming Taiwan, and American military officials have warned that China could be ready for an invasion by 2027.“Relations are pretty bad, especially as China’s economy struggles,” a legislator for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and founder of the civil defense nonprofit Kuma Academy, Puma Shen, tells the Sun. “Xi Jinping has chosen nationalism and the goal of ‘Great China’ as the main ideology, with taking back Taiwan as a key step. An invasion could happen pretty soon.”The DPP focuses on advancing Taiwan’s sovereignty, democracy, and social progress while resisting unification under authoritarian rule. Others predict a longer timeline. “If I had to give a range, I’d say 2032 to 2040,” the international affairs director, Alexander Huang, of the prominent opposition Kuomintang party, which favors stronger ties with Beijing, tells the Sun. “Xi may want to achieve something big before turning 80.”Beijing’s Build-UpBeijing’s preparations are already under way. China in December conducted its largest naval exercise since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. It simulated a blockade and strikes on foreign ships, escalating what many call “gray-zone warfare.” That includes undersea cable sabotage, cyberattacks, and psychological campaigns.“The CCP observes no rules in influence and espionage operations,” the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub associate director, Kitsch Liao, tells the Sun. “They use charity exchanges, fake religious groups, mafia connections — even blackmail and illegal campaign donations. They want to convince Taiwanese they can’t win.”China’s military modernization plan seeks “basic” capabilities by 2035 and “world-class” status by 2049. While vague, the plan reflects steady, methodical progress. Recent amphibious landing drills and naval expansion efforts underline Beijing’s increasing readiness.The threat isn’t only military — it’s economic. Taiwan imports most of its food and fuel. A blockade could cause immediate shortages. Any disruption to Taiwan’s semiconductor exports would send shockwaves through the global economy.Taiwan’s Response: A Fragile DefenseTaiwan is not idle. The island has increased its defense spending, deployed more missiles and fighter jets, and begun training civilians through grassroots organizations like Kuma Academy and Forward Alliance.“We offer lessons explaining China’s ideology, the possible ways they could invade Taiwan, and what rumors people shouldn’t believe,” Mr. Shen, a Kuma Academy founder, explained. “We also teach open-source intelligence, first aid, evacuating, and protecting yourself during warfare. So, these lessons provide practical techniques for citizens.”While Taiwan’s military numbers at about 200,000, China commands more than two million troops. China’s Eastern and Southern Theater Commands focus on Taiwan and the broader Indo-Pacific.Taiwan’s defense efforts include indigenous submarine programs and drone capabilities, yet political infighting has hindered progress. The DPP-led government proposed $6 billion in defense spending, but the Kuomintang-dominated parliament cut the budget.“The first indigenous submarine was supposed to undergo trials this October, but it’s already behind schedule. With budget cuts, we don’t know what will happen with submarines two and three in the coming years,” a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Liang-Chih Evans Chen, tells the Sun. “That’s a major uncertainty. It’s a case of domestic politics spilling over into national defense.”Meanwhile, Taiwan’s doctors have never treated gunshot wounds. Hospitals are ill-prepared for mass casualties. The inaugural director of RAND’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, Raymond Kuo, tells the Sun that over the past three years, Taiwan has “made great strides in improving its self-defense, including acquiring new weapons and equipment,” but that the island “still has significant work ahead.”Speaking anonymously, a senior Taiwanese military official confirmed that delays in weapons deliveries from the United States remain a significant vulnerability. “Most of the recent defense cuts will affect overseas training and recruitment,” the source tells the Sun. “But we’re beefing up our readiness and preparing for any eventuality.”Civil Society Steps InBeyond the formal military, Taiwan’s civil society has begun to fill in gaps. Inspired in part by Ukraine’s resistance to Russia, citizens are attending survival workshops and civil defense training.“All Taiwanese men must serve in the military and can be recalled until their late 30s,” Mr. Shen notes. “Also, Taiwan makes about 60 percent of the world’s toy guns — so civilians can practice shooting skills.”Even so, experts argue for a government-led, comprehensive civil defense plan. “Right now, efforts are scattered,” Mr. Chen underscores. “Most people still focus on daily routines — working, raising kids, going to concerts. They’re not waking up in fear. But that could change fast.”The People’s WillDespite the threats, most Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo. A February 2024 poll by the Mainland Affairs Council found that nearly 90 percent support either current autonomy or eventual independence. Only 5.2 percent favor unification.“Taiwanese don’t want party secretaries telling our kids what to say,” Mr. Huang says of the Kuomintang party. “We’re not looking to rule China again or to declare independence. We want to be left alone.”The resistance to unification isn’t cultural — it’s political. Taiwanese citizens may share language and ancestry with people on the mainland, but they reject Beijing’s authoritarianism.“Most Taiwanese accept the status quo. They see Taiwan as a sovereign nation, even if we’re still officially the Republic of China,” Mr. Chen says. “Some prefer changing the name to Republic of Taiwan, but it’s not a current priority.”The trauma of Hong Kong still looms large. After Beijing crushed the city’s democratic aspirations, the slogan “Today’s Hong Kong, tomorrow’s Taiwan” became a chilling prophecy.A Fragile LegacyIn the grand arc of history, Taiwan may never again claim to represent all of China. Its existence, however, proves that democracy is possible in Chinese society — and perhaps one day, on the mainland.While reunification under Beijing’s terms remains a non-starter, the broader dream of a democratic China may not be dead — it simply lives quietly across the Strait.“We’re prepared in the same way we turn on Netflix every night and say, ‘Oh, poor people in Ukraine or Gaza — but not us!’ We think we’re the chosen ones, living on a beautiful island,” Mr. Alexander Huang noted. “We don’t hate the Chinese, we just don’t want to be part of them. Even within Chinese philosophy, you need a reason — an excuse — to go to war. My real worry is that someone will manufacture that excuse. But on the surface, life here goes on. People go to concerts. They’re not waking up every morning in fear.”Mr. Chang, who helped spark the Sunflower Movement, says his millennial generation lives with that burden daily. “The fear of war has hung over generations,” he adds. “Every man must serve in the military. The big question is: What comes next?”

What Happened to the Dream of a Democratic China?

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