What Is the Trump Question?

After the midterms, many Republicans profess to be done with President Trump. Yet is Mr. Trump done with the GOP?

AP/Andrew Harnik, file
President Trump honks the horn of an 18-wheeler truck on the South Lawn of the White House on March 23, 2017. AP/Andrew Harnik, file

After a disappointing outcome in the midterms, the question is less whether Republicans are done with President Trump. It is more whether Mr. Trump is done with the GOP. There’s no doubt that the wave of criticism — “unusual public attacks” from across the party, as the Times puts it — is remarkable. “Republicans,” one longtime Trump adviser, David Urban, tells the Times, “have followed Donald Trump off the side of a cliff.”

Yet it’s by no means clear that Mr. Trump shares that view. Publicly he’s insisting that he “did a great job” in respect of the midterm elections, and asking for continued trust: “Remember, I am a ‘Stable Genius,’” he protested. He’s been calling his post-midterm critics “enemies and losers.” No sign yet that he’s reversing his plans for a “big announcement” on November 15 about a third bid for the White House.

That prospect, ABC reports, has “some Trump aides concerned.” One aide, Jason Miller, said he is advising Mr. Trump “to hold off until after the Georgia race,” which could settle control of the Senate. Others, not named by ABC, hoped that he remains vague enough about his pending announcement to give him an “escape hatch should he decide not to run.” Yet, booms Mr. Trump: “We had tremendous success — why would anything change?”

Mr. Trump also trotted out a few staunch backers, including the senator-elect of Ohio, J.D. Vance; the just re-elected Representative from New York, Elise Stefanik; and Congressman Jim Banks of Indiana, to declare anew their loyalty. Remarks like theirs — “Trump remains the most popular figure in the Republican Party,” Mr. Vance says — reflect the ex-president’s core support, which will not be easily dislodged. 

So if Mr. Trump ends up wanting to seek the nomination of his party in 2024, there may not be an easy way to stop him. This is because of the way the GOP nominating conventions are organized, as anti-Trump Republicans learned to their chagrin in 2016. The state primaries are designed to award many, if not all, delegates to candidates who start off as the front runner or who have a strong bloc of early support.

The process is the result of the “bruising 2012 primary season,” the Washington Post explains in a piece in March 2016, as Mr. Trump’s march to the nomination was just getting started. Senator Romney’s defeat in 2012 was chalked up to the primary process lasting too long and causing too much bitterness among competing candidates. So “GOP leaders sought to tip the system even more in favor of the front-runner,” the Post explains.

That means early candidates with the biggest blocs of support “get more delegates than their vote totals might suggest,” the Post says. Mr. Trump in early primaries got around 35 percent of votes but 43 percent of the delegates. That process accelerated as the primaries ran on, helped by “winner-take-all” and “winner-take-most” contests where candidates with the most support, even if less than a majority, can take all or most delegates.

In 2016, Mr. Trump’s cause was aided by the fact that so many rivals also sought the nomination — the primary season opened with 12 candidates. That allowed Mr. Trump, with a dedicated core of supporters, to rack up primary wins — and delegates — while his divided opposition dithered among themselves. If Mr. Trump chooses to run in 2024, Republicans would be wise to settle on a credible opponent — the sooner the better.


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