While Washington Waffles on Moscow, Poland Vows To Be ‘Stronger Than Russia’

While the Trump Administration migrates from treating Russia as adversary to viewing it as a partner, Poland makes its choice crystal clear. Central Europe’s heavyweight is building the largest NATO army in Europe. It is investing billions in new arms. Plus it is leading a regional move to build a 1,500-mile long border belt of anti-personnel mines from the Arctic to the Black Sea.“Poland’s hands cannot be tied,” Deputy Prime Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told reporters last week of the decision by Poland and the three Baltic nations to withdraw from the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines. Finland is expected to follow within months. Poland’s $2.5 billion, 500-mile long “East Shield” is to be the keystone of this north-south arch of land against Russia and its satellite Belarus.Poland and the Baltics fear that if the Trump Administration negotiates a lasting armistice in the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia will rebuild its military and redirect it to NATO’s eastern front — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.“Military threats to NATO member states bordering Russia and Belarus have significantly increased,” the four nations’ defense ministers said in a joint statement. They were alluding to Russia, their common eastern neighbor. “With this decision, we are sending a clear message: our countries are prepared and can use every necessary measure to defend our security needs.” Polish officials say their arms factories can make 1 million mines a year.Leopard 2PL main battle tanks of the Polish armed forces crossing the Vistula River during NATO military exercises on March 4, 2024 near Gniew, Poland. Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesNext year, all four countries — increasingly called “front line” nations — plan to meet President Trump’s goal of spending five percent of gross domestic product on defense. Twenty years ago, the NATO goal was two percent. Last year, America spent 3.4 percent of its output on defense.Fear of Russia and uncertainty about America are pumping up defense budgets in the Baltic and Nordic nations. Sweden, the largest Nordic nation and NATO’s newest member, announced plans yesterday to borrow $30 billion to dramatically hike defense spending over the next decade. For a start, Sweden plans to spend 3.5 percent of its GDP annually on defense by 2030, up from 2.4 percent today.“This is the biggest rearmament of Swedish defense since the days of the Cold War,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters. “We have a completely new security policy situation, in practice since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but also with a very large uncertainty with the transatlantic relationship.”Denmark announced yesterday that next year it will start drafting women for its military. Through 2033, Denmark plans to spend an additional $17 billion on defense.Yesterday at Warsaw, Secretary-General Mark Rutte of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization sought to reassure Poles that Americans will be with them. Fresh from a meeting at Washington with President Trump, he told reporters: “Europe needs to know that Uncle Sam still has our back. But America also needs to know that its NATO allies will step up.”The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and President Zelensky on July 11, 2022 at Kyiv. Alexey Furman/Getty ImagesSpeaking in a nation where America stations 10,000 soldiers, Mr. Rutte warned: “If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland, or on any other ally, they’ll be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating. This has to be very clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us.”Mr. Rutte’s appeal for transatlantic unity follows a string of anti-European remarks by officials of the new administration in Washington. The Atlantic reported Monday that Defense Secretary Hegseth sent this message March 14 to Vice President Vance through a confidential chat group: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”Two weeks ago, when Poland’s foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, raised doubts about the reliability of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, Mr. Musk shot back in a post on X: “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.”President Trump and Steve Witkoff at Mar-a-Lago on January 7, 2025. AP/Evan Vucci, fileAfter this blowup, Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, told la Repubblica newspaper that he paused talks over a $1.6 billion deal with Starlink. He said: “When the controversy quiets down, there will be a technical approach.”Without closing the door to American military support, Poland builds its own independent defense force. In a key speech to Poland’s parliament on March 7, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a blueprint to build Europe’s largest army: 500,000 active and reserve soldiers. He said: “We will try to have a model ready by the end of this year so that every adult male in Poland is trained in the event of war.”By the end of this year, Poland is to distribute to every household a “survival guide.” The booklet will feature tips on first aid, how to find a bomb shelter, and what to put in an evacuation backpack.On the materiel side, Poland has signed with American manufacturers contracts for $20 billion worth of arms, including 250 M1A2 Abrams battle tanks, 32 F-35 jets, 96 Apache helicopters, Javelin missiles, and artillery rocket systems. Poland also has committed to South Korea to buy 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks.Poles, after four centuries of wars between their largely Roman Catholic country and largely Orthodox Christian Russia, give strong bipartisan support for defense spending. In a Pew Research Center survey of 18 Western nations conducted after Russia launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine, in February 2022, Poles exhibited the most hostile views of Russia: 97 percent unfavorable, and 2 percent favorable.A strong, nearly $1 trillion economy pays for unprecedented defense spending by Poland, a nation of 38 million people. Poles say their long-term defense buildup is all the more justified by the Trump Administration’s apparent pivot to Russia.On Friday, podcaster Tucker Carlson aired an interview with Ukraine-Russia peace negotiator Steve Witkoff. The American envoy defended Russian referendums in occupied Ukrainian lands, said he does not believe that President Putin wants more of Ukraine or to invade Europe, and he ridiculed European leaders who want security guarantees for Ukraine.“I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy,” said Mr. Witkoff, a longtime friend of Mr. Trump. “I liked him. I thought he was straight up with me.” Yet after centuries of betrayals by outside allies, Poles have learned to rely on their own resources.“We are seeing a deep correction in U.S. policy with regard to Ukraine, but we can’t turn our backs on it only because we don’t like it,” Mr. Tusk said. “Poles will not adopt the philosophy that we are completely powerless and helpless, if President Trump has decided to adjust policy.” Looking ahead, he said Friday: “By 2030, Europe must be, in terms of army, weapons, technology, clearly stronger than Russia. And it will be.”

While Washington Waffles on Moscow, Poland Vows To Be ‘Stronger Than Russia’

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