Will Israel’s Domestic Turmoil Really Trigger an Exodus?

A 52-year-old mother of two this month traded the towers and turmoil of Tel Aviv for New Jersey. “I did not want to raise my children in the current political environment in Israel,” the Israeli-American woman tells the Sun. She is one of a growing number of Israelis who, exasperated by the country’s contentious judicial overhaul or the disruptions to daily life that weeks of large-scale protests against it have engendered — or both — are electing to decamp to calmer shores.According to a recent poll undertaken by Israel’s Channel 13, more than a quarter — 28 percent — of respondents were considering a move abroad. The Times of Israel reports that the survey reflects “the impact of the [government] coalition passing the law on Monday, despite sustained mass protests, vehement opposition from top judicial, security, economic and public figures, and thousands of Israeli military reservists vowing to quit service.”The extent to which the reform actually erodes the power of Israel’s supreme court is in immediate practical terms only a corollary to the disruptions the widespread antipathy to the changes has caused. As the AP reported, the anti-government protesters “come largely from Israel’s urban middle class and include doctors, academics, military officers and business leaders,” while Prime Minister Netanyahu’s supporters “tend to be poorer, more religious and include residents of West Bank settlements and outlying areas.”Underlining the growing rift between Israel’s secular and religious communities that the recent political tumult has brought to the fore, more than half of the respondents surveyed said that they feared a civil war. Yet Israel is rarely a country where strong emotions are in short supply, and if more than a quarter of its residents are thinking of moving overseas it does not mean that all will do so, or can. “I’m not one of these Israelis with dual citizenship or who maybe can claim a Portuguese passport through family roots,” a former El Al cabin crew staffer tells the Sun. “But if I did,” he added, “at this point there’s no question I would look for some property in Europe and stay there.”Economic repercussions of the protests against the judicial reform are already being felt. This week, Moody’s Investors Service warned that Israeli government bodies are now “less predictable and more willing to create significant risks to economic and social stability,” with the economy facing “negative consequences.”In the meantime, Israeli doctors have gone on strike, stocks have tumbled, and the shekel has wobbled as discontent brews and more demonstrations loom on the horizon.There are other consequences. Following the passage of the first reform law, thousands of military reservists threatened to stop reporting for duty. That risk prompted the Israel Defense Force’s chief of staff, General Herzi Halevi, to state, “If we don’t have a strong and united defense force, if Israel’s best do not serve in the IDF, we will no longer be able to exist as a country in the region.”The IDF’s chief spokesman, Daniel Hagari, told reporters this week that right now the IDF is “competent” but, “If reservists do not show up for a long time, there will be damage to the army’s competence. It is a gradual process that will be affected according to the presence of the reservists.”CNN reported that nearly 10,000 military reservists said before the passage of the judicial “reasonableness” bill on Monday that they would refuse to volunteer for duty if it were passed. Reserve duty, or miluim, comes at different times for reservists depending on factors such as age, rank, and branch of service, so it is not immediately clear what operational impact the refusals to serve might have.Tensions are simmering. Tuesday’s 24-hour strike by doctors ended without incident, but other demonstrators this week have vowed to ramp up their protests. Previous demonstrations have resulted in major highway closures at Tel Aviv and even disruptions at Ben-Gurion International Airport. About a million Israelis already live abroad, the majority in America. The question of how many more will join them is one nobody can answer. Only a few years ago, in 2016, some Americans were saying that they would move overseas or to Canada if Donald Trump were elected president, but it is unclear how many actually followed through on that threat. One of the differences between Israelis and Amercians, though, is that many Israelis have an ingrained thirst for travel, regardless of whether they possess a second passport. That also applies to sabras who have deep family ties to the Land of Israel. Present circumstances bespeak more volatility to come, and for some, as the Channel 13 poll indicates, it is all getting to be too much. As one high-tech worker and reservist in the IDF tells the Sun, “There’s no question that Israel is my first home, but if I could move to Spain tomorrow, I would.”

Will Israel’s Domestic Turmoil Really Trigger an Exodus?

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