Abortion Catching Up to Immigration as an Issue for Voters in Arizona: Poll

A poll from one of President Trump’s top pollsters finds that abortion and women’s rights gets more attention in Arizona than the border.

AP, File
Presidents Biden and Trump. AP, File

A new survey, leaked from President Trump’s campaign, found that in the key swing state of Arizona — both a border state and the epicenter of the current discussion around abortion rights in America — abortion is outpacing immigration as an issue of importance for voters.

Conducted by a GOP pollster, Tony Fabrizio, and leaked to Politico, the survey found that 11 percent of Arizona respondents were following the news about the recent court ruling reviving a Civil War-era law that effectively bans abortion in the state.

The pollster reported that, when combined with mentions of abortion rights and women’s rights, 16 percent of respondents named it as the single story they were following, tying it with the war at Gaza, and putting it three points ahead of the border.

In a memo, Mr. Fabrizio suggests that the poll is actually good news for Mr. Trump’s campaign. He writes: “Overall, Arizona voters are NOT preoccupied with the Abortion ruling, it is largely Democrats.”

The poll suggests that some 24 percent of Democrats were following the issue of abortion compared to just 5 percent of Republicans and 6 percent of independents. About 7 percent of “persuadable” respondents were following the issue.

On the border, for comparison, 26 percent of Republicans, 11 percent of independents, and 1 percent of Democrats said they were paying attention to the issue. The pollster didn’t report results for how many “persuadables” were following the border.

The pollster also asked respondents for their top issue in the presidential race, and when asked directly, immigration surpassed abortion.

Some 23 percent said that immigration and border security was their top issue, followed by protecting democracy at 19 percent, inflation and rising prices at 12 percent, and honesty in government at 9 percent. Abortion was the fourth most commonly cited top issue, with 8 percent of respondents saying it was their top issue.

“Not only has the race in Arizona not changed as President Trump continues to lead, but Arizona voters are not as focused on the Abortion ruling or abortion as an issue overall as Biden and the Beltway Media want everyone to believe,” Mr. Fabrizio writes.

Mr. Fabrizio’s survey comes against a backdrop of Democratic messaging focusing on the revival of the 160-year-old law, including from both President Biden and the likely Democratic nominee for the Senate in the state, Ruben Gallego.

The Biden campaign launched a new ad last week targeting the recent abortion ruling. In it, Mr. Biden says, “Because of Donald Trump, millions of women lost the fundamental freedom to control their own bodies.”

“And now, women’s lives are in danger because of that. The question is, if Donald Trump gets back in power, what freedom will you lose next?” Mr. Biden says. “Your body and your decisions belong to you, not the government, not Donald Trump. I will fight like hell to get your freedom back.”

On Sunday, Mr. Gallego launched an ad attacking his likely opponent in November, Kari Lake, focusing on comments from Ms. Lake during her 2022 gubernatorial campaign when she praised the 19th-century law.

“Obviously, I think Roe v. Wade should be overturned,” Ms. Lake is shown saying in the ad. “And we have a great law on the books right now … and it’s going to be very difficult for abortion clinics to survive and be open if abortion is illegal in Arizona.”

Vice President Harris also visited the state over the weekend, saying on Friday in reference to the abortion ban in the state: “Donald Trump did this.”

“We all must understand who is to blame,” Ms. Harris said. “Donald Trump is the architect of this healthcare crisis.”

The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted between April 7 and April 11 and had a plus or minus 4.9 point margin of error.


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