A recent survey of young voters in America found that young voters are less excited about voting in 2024 than they were in 2020. At the same time, the survey provides a road map for Democrats anxious about turnout among young voters who say they’d show up if abortion is on the ballot.

The survey from Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics found that voter enthusiasm had fallen among younger voters, with 49 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 saying they “definitely” plan to vote in 2024 compared to 57 percent who said they definitely planned to vote in 2020 in the fall of 2019.

The 2020 election is a high water mark for turnout among young voters, with the Census Bureau finding that 52.5 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 voted that year, up from 43.5 percent in 2016.

“The bad news is that fewer young people intend to vote in this election compared to the Biden-Trump election of 2020,” pollster John Della Volpe said in a statement. “The good news is there’s still time, and we know what Gen Z and young millennials want to see and hear.”

The survey also found that young women indicated that they were less likely to vote than young men, with 47 percent of women 18 to 29 indicating that they will “definitely” vote, down from 56 percent in 2019.

Men aged 18 to 29 also saw a decrease in enthusiasm, though it was smaller, with 52 percent of men saying they “definitely” plan to vote, down from 59 percent in 2019.

While the survey suggests that young Americans are less excited to vote than they were four years ago, it also suggests that they would be more inclined to come out to vote if abortion was on the ballot.

The survey found that 45 percent of all young Americans and 56 percent of registered voters aged 18 to 29 would “definitely” vote if abortion was directly on the ballot.

This includes 22 percent of young Americans who say they are not “definitely” planning to vote in the presidential election and 10 percent who say that they are not definitely planning to vote in the election.

This demographic of voters also favors abortion rights, with 56 percent of young voters self-identifying as “pro-choice” and just 26 percent self-identifying as “pro-life.”

The self-identified “pro-choice” voters were also more likely to say they would vote if abortion rights are on the ballot, with 64 percent of young people who consider themselves “pro-choice” saying they would vote compared to just 34 percent of young people who consider themselves “pro-life.”

So far, there are only two states with confirmed abortion referendums planned for 2024, Maryland and New York. However, activists in 11 other states are working to try to get a referendum on the ballot: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota.

Two of these states, Arizona and Nevada, are expected to be among the most hotly contested states of the 2024 election, in the assessment of the managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik. He expects Pennsylvania to be competitive, though less so than Arizona and Nevada.

Reproductive freedom and abortion rights are not only important for getting young voters to the polls. According to the survey, a majority of young men and women consider it important to have legal access to reproductive health care when choosing where to live.

Young women felt most strongly about this as a group, with 69 percent of women younger than 30 saying legal access to reproductive healthcare, including abortion, was “very important” in choosing where to live. For men, 55 percent said the same.