Abortion Questions on Five States’ Ballots

Voters will decide on ballot measures that will either enshrine the right to an abortion in their state’s constitution or explicitly prohibit or curtail it.

Max Becherer/The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate via AP, file
The February 13 vote at Bucks County could prove decisive in the lead-up to the presidential election. Max Becherer/The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate via AP, file

Democrats across the country are running on the message that “abortion is on the ballot,” and in five states that’s true. On Tuesday, voters in Michigan, Kentucky, Montana, Vermont, and California will decide on ballot measures that will either enshrine the right to an abortion in their state’s constitution or explicitly prohibit or curtail it.

Polling shows abortion ranks as the second most important issue for voters this election year, behind the economy. More than 60 percent of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances, while 37 percent think it should be illegal, according to Pew

Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in June, which reversed Roe v. Wade and returned the abortion question to the states, 13 states have outlawed abortion under most circumstances. Georgia now prohibits the procedure after six weeks’ gestation, before many women know they’re pregnant.

On Tuesday, Kentucky will be the first southern state to vote on an abortion rights ballot initiative since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. If the Amendment 2 ballot measure passes, it will add explicit language to the state’s constitution that offers no protection for abortion rights and prohibits taxpayer funding for the procedure.

Currently, the state has in place a near total ban on abortions, including in cases of rape and incest, but that is being challenged in court. If the ballot measure fails, the court challengers will need to prevail in state supreme court for abortions in the state to resume.

There has been no public polling on the measure, so it’s unclear how blood-red Kentucky will vote. In August, Kansas voters rejected a similar amendment 59 percent to 41 percent. Opponents of the measure are hoping Kentuckians follow Kansas’s lead in voting to uphold abortion rights in a conservative state.

In Michigan, voters will decide on perhaps the most consequential of these abortion ballot measures — at least politically. The state has on the books a law from 1931 that bans abortion, but a court has put it on hold. Proposal 3 would create a constitutional right to “reproductive freedom.” If it passes, the 1931 law and the court fight would be moot.

All polling indicates that Proposal 3 will pass, though the margins have shrunk since last summer. The Democratic incumbent governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is polling ahead of her Republican challenger, Tudor Dixon, who opposes legalized abortion.

The race, though, has tightened considerably, with the latest polls showing Ms. Whitmer ahead by only two or three percentage points. Democrats are hoping Proposal 3 will induce Democrat voter turnout and help send Ms. Whitmer back to Lansing.

Vermont and California will also vote to include the right to an abortion in their state constitutions. Abortion is already legal in both of these overwhelmingly liberal states, and the measures are expected to pass.

In Montana, a 1999 state supreme court ruling protects the right to an abortion under the right-of-privacy provision. Voters in Big Sky Country will decide on Tuesday whether to pass Legislative Referendum 131, which would require medical providers to “take necessary actions to preserve the life of a born-alive infant” following an abortion procedure. Providers that fail to do so could face up to 20 years in prison and a $50,000 fine.

These five ballot measures put the issue of abortion rights directly in voters’ hands. On Tuesday, we’ll see what they think. 


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