After Democrats’ Election Sweep on Tuesday, Trump’s Redistricting Push Increasingly Looks Like It Could Backfire

Something not receiving as much attention following the Democrats’ electoral sweep across the country on Tuesday is the fact that President Trump’s push to redraw congressional maps in red states looks like it could actually backfire. The Texas Republicans’ decision to gerrymander their state could result in Democrats even picking up a few seats if the party’s ideal scenario plays out.Governor Greg Abbott got the green light from the Justice Department to gerrymander his state over the summer, which allowed him to turn five reliably blue seats into red ones. Mr. Abbott’s map drawing, however, relies on the assumption that Hispanic voters in the new districts will be as conservative in 2026 as they were on election night in 2024. Just 10 months into Mr. Trump’s term, however, Hispanics seems to be moving leftward. In New Jersey, where Vice President Kamala Harris only narrowly beat Mr. Trump thanks in part to Hispanics moving sharply to the right, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill was elected governor in a landslide. Ms. Sherrill’s overwhelming 13-point victory was partly driven by Hispanics backing her. In key precincts with heavy Hispanic populations, Ms. Sherrill ran up the score by margins not seen in years, according to data compiled by the election analysis firm VoteHub. In the supermajority Latino town of Perth Amboy, some precincts moved as much as 75 points to the left compared to Mr. Trump’s margin last year. In Union City — which is more than 80 percent Hispanic — Ms. Sherrill won precincts with nearly 90 percent of the vote, even though Ms. Harris won those same precincts by single-digits last November. Mr. Trump won Passaic County, which is 43 percent Hispanic, in northern New Jersey by three points last year. On Tuesday, Ms. Sherrill won the county by 15 points. If even a fraction of Hispanics in Texas break with the Republican Party in the way that Hispanics in New Jersey did on Tuesday, then the GOP is in real danger of losing their redrawn seats. Three of those new seats — the 35th District to the east of San Antonio and the 28th and 34th Districts anchored in the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas — have large Latino populations. Had those maps been in place in 2024, Mr. Trump would have won each of those districts by just about ten points, meaning a potential shift among Latinos come 2026 could put all three of those new districts back within Democrats’ grasp. Such a scenario means Republicans will have only gotten two House seats out of their ambitious gerrymander. If that is the case, then the bigger story will be the arms race that Texas Republicans kicked off without really shoring up their position. As a result of Republicans’ decision to gerrymander Texas, California is now on track to solidify five additional seats for Democrats in retaliation. The ballot question allowing Governor Gavin Newsom to do that was approved by voters on Tuesday by more than 25 points. Republicans in the state have sued to block the Democratic gerrymander on the grounds that it violates the 14th and 15th Amendments to the Constitution because the maps were drawn “based on race, specifically to favor Hispanic voters, without cause or evidence to justify it.”In response to Mr. Newsom’s redistricting, some Republican states then jumped into the fight. Missouri Republicans redrew their congressional map to eliminate one Democratic seat, though that measure could be overturned by voters who are now gathering signatures for a ballot initiative to restore the original congressional map for the 2028 elections. North Carolina lawmakers, too, have redrawn their map to try to pick off one Democratic House member, though it is not drawn so red as to preclude Democrats from competing, meaning that in a wave year, the opposition party may be able to hold it. Ohio lawmakers have also redrawn their congressional map to shift two Democratic seats to the right, though again, both seats are still within Democrats’ grasp. Democratic states are starting to get off the mat in response to Texas and other GOP states’ gerrymanders. Virginia Democrats are going through the process of redrawing their maps to pick up two or three additional seats for their party. The governor of Maryland, Wes Moore, set up a redistricting commission on Tuesday to look at eliminating his state’s single Republican seat. Colorado voters are pushing their Democratic legislature to redraw the state’s maps following the 2026 midterms. Pressure only seems to be growing, with national party leaders backing the gerrymanders. The House minority leader, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, is pushing Illinois Democrats to redraw the state’s maps to eliminate one or two Republican seats. Even state legislators are pressing fellow Democrats in different states to support gerrymandering efforts. The president of the Virginia state senate, Louise Lucas, who is leading the gerrymandering push in her state, told the president of the Maryland state senate, Bill Ferguson, to redistrict his state. “Get our victory in Virginia out of your mouth while you echo MAGA talking points,” Ms. Lucas wrote on X in response to Mr. Ferguson, who praised Democrats for their victories on Tuesday and urged his party to not “rig” state maps. “Grow a pair and stand up to this President. This is just embarrassing,” Ms. Lucas added. When you tally up all of the potential new districts that are being drawn and which party they favor, at first glance it would appear to be the Republicans. But in Democrats ideal world where Hispanics shift back to the left, Democratic lawmakers follow through with their own gerrymanders, and incumbent candidates overperform in a wave midterm year, the Democratic Party could actually pick up a handful of seats as a result of the redistricting war that Mr. Trump started.

After Democrats’ Election Sweep on Tuesday, Trump’s Redistricting Push Increasingly Looks Like It Could Backfire

After Democrats’ Election Sweep on Tuesday, Trump’s Redistricting Push Increasingly Looks Like It Could Backfire

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