The alarm bells are ringing. American defense companies are not currently capable of producing weapons and equipment at the speed and volume we would need in the event of a major war — or, more realistically, in the event of two smaller wars.

President Biden’s rhetoric is right. This will likely be the “decade of decision,” with existential challenges looming abroad. His actions, however, fail to back up those words. We must be prepared to handle whatever crises emerge, with strength and options. The fact is: We are not.

It has been 252 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, and the U.S  military is already dipping into wartime stockpiles. Why? Because 70 percent of the more than $15 billion of equipment we have sent to Ukraine came directly from U.S. military stocks.

That was for the sake of speed. The Ukrainians currently use more ammunition in two weeks than we can produce in one year.  Just one of the 22 arms shipments to Ukraine thus far included more Javelins than we can produce in a year. 

It would already take us at least two to three years to replenish our stocks if the war in Ukraine ended today, which it will not, and that assumes we accelerate production rates. At recent production rates it could take a decade. At current aid levels, every six months the war continues will dig us roughly two more years into the hole. 

There are more horrifying stats where these come from, including a series of recent reports and studies conducted by Mark Cancian at CSIS and others. Houston, they are signaling frantically: We have a problem, and it is a serious one.

We do not currently have the manufacturing capability to produce enough equipment to support Ukraine at current levels while maintaining U.S. military readiness, much less tackle another crisis that we fear could soon emerge in Taiwan.

Most importantly, you can be sure that if our military were directly engaged in a war against a major adversary, we would be burning through much more equipment than the Ukrainian military is today. Recent war games have proved as much. 

That is the lesson here. 

The answer is not to slow or cease our support of the Ukrainian army. Ensuring the Ukrainians can hold the line against Russian aggression is critical. The liberal, rules-based world order, which has brought historic levels of peace since World War II, depends on it.

Note well, though, that our supply of 155mm ammunition, Himars, short for highly mobile rocket systems, Stingers (shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles), 155mm Howitzers (long-range cannon), and Javelins (single man portable anti-tank weapons) are in short supply.

Shortages are exacerbated by the majority of repair parts being redirected to Ukraine, making it difficult for our own forces to maintain the equipment they still have. 

Recent and planned military exercises are being curtailed as a result. If this continues, there will be real consequences. Turnover in the military is extremely high, and the population is young. In the Marine Corps, nearly 75 percent of the entire force turns over every four years. Regular training is essential, otherwise a sizable percentage of the force will have never adequately practiced the tasks they must perform in the event of war. 

Now is not the time to let readiness slip. In recent days, Secretary Blinken has warned, repeatedly, that the Chinese have accelerated their timeline to take Taiwan by force. If they do, we may be called upon to defend the island. A failure to do so would stun our partners in Asia — Japan, South Korea, the Philippines. 

They would then doubt that America will defend them against Chinese aggression, and could be driven to curry favor with China for their survival. If they do, Chinese hegemony in Asia would be nearly a foregone conclusion, and its leverage over us sharply expanded.

The logical move, therefore, is for us to ramp up our defense production capability — immediately, and rapidly. Yet the Pentagon is not doing it. So far, only $2.6 billion of equipment is currently under contract to replace the more than $12 billion of equipment drawn down from our stocks. 

Even less has been done to solve the bigger problem: We need enough equipment to continue to arm Ukraine, while replacing the equipment sent, while upsizing military stocks and production capability, to prepare for larger crises that may come in the “decade of decision.”

The Pentagon has long been aware of these problems, but the erosion of the defense industrial base has been relegated too often, and for too long, to lower-level bureaucrats. 

The problem no longer lingers over the horizon. The time has come to mobilize our defense industrial base before we lose the capability altogether. The war in Ukraine has offered us awareness, and time. Never look a gift horse in the mouth.