The first major independent poll of Tennessee’s seventh congressional district special election has been released, and it is setting off alarms in Republican circles. The survey shows Democrats within the margin of error for winning the race, despite President Trump winning the district by more than 20 points last year. 

The previous occupant of the seat, Congressman Mark Green, won his 2024 race by 22-points before leaving office this summer in order to pursue another career. Mr. Trump won the seventh district by the same margin. 

Now, Democrats believe that state representative Aftyn Behn can do the impossible and win the district, which encompasses the suburbs and rural areas to the west and southwest of Nashville. 

On Wednesday, Emerson College released the poll results, showing Ms. Behn with 46 percent support and the Republican nominee, Matt Van Epps, at 48 percent. Undecided voters make up five percent of the poll result.

“Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56 percent to 42 percent, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51 percent to 39 percent,” the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, wrote in his analysis. “Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64 percent of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61 percent of those over 70.”

The poll shows Mr. Van Epps winning men by a larger margin than Ms. Behn wins among women, with men breaking for the GOP by nine points, while women break for the Democrats by six points. 

The margin of error for the poll is just under four percent, meaning Ms. Behn is well within striking distance to pull off an upset. 

Mr. Trump’s own approval rating has fallen dramatically in the seventh district, according to the Emerson poll. The president has an approval rating of only 47 percent in the district and a disapproval rating of 49 percent — a far cry from his 22-point margin of victory last year. 

Voters overwhelmingly list the economy and inflation as their top concern, with 38 percent saying that those are the most important issues facing their state. In second place is housing affordability, which comes in at 15 percent. Immigration and crime — Mr. Trump’s strongest issues according to other polls — fall low on the list at just six and five percent, respectively. 

Republicans are clearly nervous about the race, given the amount of money that has poured in in recent months — more than $4 million on what should have been an uncontested special election. 

Mr. Trump in a social media post on Tuesday felt it was necessary to call on voters to get out and support the Republican candidate. He urged Republicans to vote early in-person, and included a link to his outside voter engagement group, Swamp the Vote, which includes details about how to cast one’s ballot. 

The conservative commentariat, too, has been ringing alarm bells about this. Conservative podcasters Matt Walsh and Clay Travis, both of whom live in Tennessee, have been urging supporters to not allow Ms. Behn to win this seat. Conservative writer Teri Christoph said in an article on Wednesday that it was “time to hit the panic button” for the seventh district election.