America’s Violent Crime Rate Is Dropping — Here’s What’s Behind the Change

After years of concern over rising crime, new data shows a significant drop in violent offenses across major American cities. Homicide, robbery, and assault rates have all declined compared with recent years, offering a hopeful shift in public safety trends.The downward trend is sparking renewed conversations about what’s working — and what still needs to change.“What we see is that sometime in late 2022 to early 2023, the huge surge in murder — which started in 2020 and continued through 2021 and most of 2022 — leveled off,” crime researcher who runs a crime database at AH Datalytics, Jeff Asher, tells the New York Sun. “Last year, the decline in violent crime overall was about 3 percent. This year, violent crime is down about 11 percent.”The NumbersNo matter which data set you turn to, the common denominator is that violent crime declined across the United States beginning in 2024 and continuing through this year. According to the Council on Criminal Justice, which analyzes monthly and yearly rates of reported crime, homicides fell last year by 16 percent in 29 major cities — amounting to 631 fewer killings than the year before. Gun assaults fell by 15 percent, robberies by 10 percent, and carjackings by a striking 32 percent. Smaller cities also saw a 19 percent reduction in murders. Other violent offenses followed suit: aggravated assaults were down 4 percent, sexual assaults dropped 6 percent, and domestic violence incidents fell by 4 percent. These decreases bring most violent crime levels back to or below pre-pandemic rates, though experts caution continued efforts are needed to sustain progress.Notably, the study drew information from 40 major cities, but excluded Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Cleveland, which are often considered high-crime hotspots. The most recent FBI data, which tends to lag in its collection and release, shows violent crime down 10.3 percent in the first half of 2024. An economist and president of the Crime Research Center, John Lott, tells the Sun that although violent crime did rise in recent years, only 40 percent were actually reported to police. “Why did violent crime continue to rise? Two main reasons stand out: arrest and conviction rates dropped, and the U.S. experienced a massive influx of illegal aliens during that time,” he said. “That trend may now be reversing.”A policy expert at the Heritage Foundation, Charles Stimson, a former prosecutor on local, state and federal levels, tells the Sun that it’s “too early” to determine the impact of the administration’s “deportation efforts and effect on crime,” but that may be proven in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Driving Factors So, what are the forces behind the drop last year and into early 2025?“There has been a public cry for law enforcement to return to a more proactive approach, while at the same time deploy new methods of engagement with the community such as procedural justice,” the director of Law Enforcement Relations at BluePoint Alert Solutions, James Kruger, an Illinois-based retired police chief tells the Sun. “Procedural justice” refers to a process of making decisions in a fair and respectful way, where everyone is treated equally and has a chance to be heard.“The cyclical nature of crime is attributed to not only law enforcement but the entire criminal justice system, including prosecutors and judges,” he continued. Mr. Kruger pointed out one key change: the passing of Proposition 36 in California last November. This measure rolled back parts of earlier reforms and allowed tougher penalties for repeat theft and drug offenses, which has a ripple effect of reducing more violent offenses. Mr. Lott also noted that total violent crime is falling due to “tougher enforcement by many local governments.“I also suspect that criminal illegal aliens are more cautious than before. They now know that getting arrested is much more likely to result in deportation — unlike during the Biden administration when enforcement was far weaker,” he said. A Baltimore-based police reform activist, Ray Kelly, the executive director of Citizens Policing Project, has a different take. He tells the Sun that in his city, at least, “community-based resources that were closest to the streets where the violence occurs” significantly reduced crime numbers. “Maryland set a precedent in police reform by repealing its Law Enforcement Bill of Rights and passing the Maryland Police Reform Act, which emphasized the need for heightened Civilian oversight,” he noted. In 2021, Maryland became the first state to repeal its Law Enforcement Officers’ Bill of Rights, which had long shielded police from accountability. The new Maryland Police Accountability Act established civilian-led oversight boards, setting a national example for increased transparency in policing. In 2024, Baltimore recorded 201 homicides — lowest total since 2011— marking a 23 percent decrease from 2023 and a 40 percent drop since 2022.‘Rogue’ ProsecutorsMr. Stimson said one of the most significant driving factors is the “massive backlash against the progressive prosecutor movement.”“You’ve seen examples like George Gascón losing his office in L.A., where DA Nathan Hochman has taken over. Kim Foxx in Cook County, Chicago, decided not to run again. She was the first Soros-backed prosecutor. They’ve brought in a more moderate person,” he asserted. “Marilyn Mosby lost her seat in Baltimore; Ivan Bates came in. Kim Gardner left in St. Louis. Chesa Boudin was voted out in San Francisco. There’s been a massive pushback — not just from the right, although the right has highlighted it — but from citizens and business owners in these cities.”In Mr. Stimson’s view, “prosecutors are the gatekeepers to the criminal justice system.”“There are 2,300 elected DAs in the U.S. They handle 90 percent of the crimes — not sheriffs, mayors, city councils, governors, or the president. These are typically low-visibility, low-dollar races,” he explained. “But starting in 2016, George Soros realized he could invest in these races. He’s bought about 70 of the 2,300, but those 70 account for about 68 percent of the U.S. population. Small number of DAs, huge impact.”A representative for Soros’s Open Society Foundations did not respond to a request for comment. Mr. Lott agreed that the rejection of such prosecutors matters. “Progressive district attorneys nationwide, from New York to Chicago to Los Angeles, were downgrading felonies to misdemeanors. Recent numbers show that Manhattan’s progressive DA downgraded felonies to lesser charges 60 percent of the time; and, of that 60 percent, 89 percent were downgraded to misdemeanors,” Mr. Lott said. Reports indicate that in 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office downgraded approximately 60 percent of felony cases to lesser charges. Of these downgraded cases, about 89% were reduced to misdemeanors. Specifically, 938 felony cases were downgraded, with 834 resulting in misdemeanor charges.Mr. Bragg’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Mr. Kruger also concurred that “several large metro areas saw new prosecutors get elected after the community demanded better accountability,” highlighting that “there has been a political shift in many major metropolitan areas at the prosecutorial level that was demanded by the community.”“That public outcry and support has also been a positive towards police recruiting and retention. Many police agencies are now getting better staffing levels, but not completely back to where we were pre-pandemic,” he continued. “When staffing levels were down, police departments had to scale back community policing efforts because they needed staffing just to handle call load and fill shifts. As those numbers are easing some, departments are able to start to reengage with programming they had to let go.”Mr. Kruger, in addition, pointed to an increase in law enforcement technology. “Real Time Crime Centers, drones as First Responders, AI for video analytics and helping write police reports, just to name a few that communities funded and now are part of the strategy and the operation of the agencies,” he noted. The Pandemic EffectAlthough Mr. Stimson stress that the violent crime uptick started in 2019, in 2020, the United States experienced one of its deadliest years in decades, with homicides surging by about 30 percent compared to the previous year — a spike attributed mainly to a collapse in public trust in police following the murder of George Floyd, widespread social unrest, and the simultaneous disruption of social services during the Covid pandemic. Demoralized officers left the force in large numbers, and many police departments are still understaffed despite ongoing recruitment efforts. Yet, the recent and significant drop in violent crime suggests more than just a return to pre-pandemic norms.“2020 was the blending of the perfect storm,” Mr. Kruger said. “What (reform activists) did not understand is that the communities they thought they were protecting from laws that were too harsh were the same communities that were starved for effective law enforcement and protection from the very people that were benefiting from misplaced leniency.”While the downward shift in violent crime offers a moment of relief, experts caution it must not become a reason for inaction. “Crime is cyclical. We can never become complacent. One or two years does not make a trend; it takes consistency and a continued dedication to enhancing the quality of life,” Mr. Kruger added. “It is not a police problem; we are only one part of the equation. There has to be continued work towards education and opportunity while at the same time making sure there is an understanding that there is a consequence for inappropriate behavior and what the expectations of the community are.”

America’s Violent Crime Rate Is Dropping — Here’s What’s Behind the Change

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