Analysis: Primary Results Show Relative Strength for Biden Among Black Voters and Strength for Trump Among Latino Voters

Tuesday’s primary election results in Arizona and Ohio are complicating the idea, suggested by polling results, that Hispanic and Black voters are shifting away from President Biden and towards President Trump as both parties redouble their efforts to sway these key groups.Over the past few months, pollsters and analysts have been warning Democrats that their support among Black voters might be slipping. In one poll, a New York Times and Siena College survey from the beginning of March, suggested that Mr. Biden only leads Mr. Trump 66 percent to 23 percent among Black voters. While a 43-point lead among Black voters may look good on the surface, Mr. Biden received the support of 87 percent of Black voters in 2020, according to exit polling that year, while Mr. Trump received the support of only 12 percent.The apparent drift away from the Democratic Party could be a major cause for concern for Democrats, who have had the reliable support of the vast majority of Black Americans for at least 50 years.It also plays into a broader narrative concerning waning support for Democrats among non-white voters more generally, and especially among Hispanic voters.The same New York Times Siena College poll had Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden 46 percent to 40 percent among Hispanic voters, which would be a major swing from the 2020 election, where exit polls showed Mr. Biden enjoying the support of 65 percent of Latino voters compared to Mr. Trump’s 32 percent. In Tuesday’s primary results, however, there are some signs that the reports of Mr. Trump’s burgeoning multi-racial coalition may be premature. In the counties of Ohio with the highest proportion of Black voters, Mr. Biden overperformed his statewide support, while Mr. Trump underperformed his statewide support.In the statewide election results, Mr. Biden received 87 percent support, and Mr. Trump received 79 percent support. In the Ohio county with the highest proportion of Black voters, Cuyahoga County, Mr. Biden did slightly better than his statewide average, receiving 88 percent support, while Mr. Trump received only 72 percent support. At Cuyahoga County, 30.5 percent of the population is Black, according to Census Data.This trend holds across the five Ohio counties with the highest proportion of Black voters — Cuyahoga, Hamilton, Franklin, Mongomery, and Lucas.The pattern was most pronounced at Franklin County, where 23.5 percent of the population is Black. In this county, Mr. Trump received just shy of 70 percent support, while Mr. Biden received more than 89 percent support.An apparent discrepancy between survey results and election results could come down to sample size. The Times’s survey only contacted 119 Black voters, whereas 2020 exit polling contacted nearly 2,000 Black voters, and tens of thousands of voters participated in the Ohio primary.While results in Ohio might complicate the reported shift of Black voters towards Republicans, results in Arizona seem to confirm support for Mr. Trump among some Latino and Hispanic voters.In Arizona, Mr. Trump only carried about 78 percent of the GOP primary vote despite all of his opponents dropping out of the race. In the Arizona county with the highest proportion of Latino voters, Santa Cruz County, Mr. Trump did slightly better than his statewide average.At Santa Cruz County, which is more than 83 percent Latino, Mr. Trump received nearly 82 percent of the vote. While there were about about 1,500 GOP voters who turned out Tuesday, Mr. Trump overperformed elsewhere as well.At Yuma County, which is 64 percent Latino, Mr. Trump received nearly 87 percent of the GOP primary vote, with more than 10,000 voters participating.At Greenlee County, which is 47 percent Latino, Mr. Trump received nearly 90 percent support, though fewer than 500 voters participated in Tuesday’s primary.It’s worth noting that Mr. Biden underperformed his own statewide vote share in those counties as well. Statewide, Mr. Biden received nearly 90 percent support. At Santa Cruz, Yuma, and Greenlee counties, however, Mr. Biden only received about 84 percent, 83 percent, and 81 percent support, respectively.The results come as Mr. Biden’s campaign is redoubling its efforts to reach out to Latino voters. At an event at a Mexican restaurant in Nevada, Mr. Biden said to the voting bloc “I need you back.”“This is a guy who — the way he talks about the Latino community is well. In 2016 he called Latinos criminals drug dealers and rapists,” Mr. Biden said. “Now he says immigrants are ‘poisoning the blood of our country’ — what the hell is he talking about?”

Analysis: Primary Results Show Relative Strength for Biden Among Black Voters and Strength for Trump Among Latino Voters

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