What is it this year about the demise of the sure thing?

A few weeks ago, just about every football fan in America — New Yorkers included — had already written off Super Bowl XLII as the frosting on the New England Patriots’ cake. In the world of politics, the label of “likely nominee” or even “front-runner” has proved shaky at best.

So it is not exactly surprising that art just may imitate life at Sunday’s Academy Awards, a ceremony saved from an uncertain future by the resolution of the ongoing writers’ strike. As the stars return to the red carpet and the office pools get heated, the conversation has once again come back to the “supposed front-runners.”

Just like the Patriots, most pundits agree it’s a “sure thing” that the evening’s top prize will come down to a two-way dash for the finish line, with the critical fave “No Country for Old Men” stretching its nose alongside industry darling “There Will Be Blood.” But only a few have pointed out that if these two titles, each of which will arrive with its own devoted constituency, effectively block each other (think Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee), it may just make room for the year’s overwhelming popular favorite, the box office star “Juno.”

At the Academy Awards, there’s a long and storied history of the lighter crowd-pleaser sneaking up on the more dramatic heavyweights.

Remember “Shakespeare In Love” over “Saving Private Ryan”? “Gladiator” over “Traffic”? “Rocky” over “Network” and “All the President’s Men”? Yet in the case of “Juno,” there are two issues that may impede its trajectory: subject matter (teenage pregnancy and abortion) and the target demographic (aiming for the young moviegoer, not the middle-age Academy voter).

With two heavyweights splitting the insider vote, and one strangely dressed outsider waiting to sneak through the door, the Oscars ceremony will be anything but a sure thing.

BEST PICTURE

Look for: A race that is truly too close to call, among “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “Juno” (sorry, “Michael Clayton” and “Atonement,” there’s no room left at the table). My prediction? “No Country,” which played the role of front-runner for so long, is ripe for a backlash, and the stunning box office success of “Juno” offers a popular alternative. I won’t be surprised if the Coen brothers finally claim the top prize, but I’m going out on a very shaky limb here, and placing my bet on “Juno” for the long shot.

Don’t Be Surprised: If I’m wrong, and “No Country for Old Men” reigns supreme.

What Should Have Been: Why has Sean Penn’s “Into the Wild,” which was widely praised by critics (it won the highest prize at the Gotham Awards) and strongly embraced by audiences, been squeezed out of the Oscar discussion? It would have been a preferable alternative to the year’s best vanity project (“Michael Clayton”) or the year’s best predictable period piece (“Atonement”). It’s epic, it’s based on a true story, and it features a career-defining turn by Emile Hirsch. It’s an easy call: “Into the Wild” was robbed.

BEST DIRECTOR

Look for: New York (by way of Minnesota) boys Joel and Ethan Coen to continue their clean sweep, moving straight from the Directors Guild Awards to the Oscars stage. Maybe a consolation prize, though …

Don’t Be Surprised: If Julian Schnabel, whose “Diving Bell and the Butterfly” was disqualified in the foreign language film category, sneaks in with a win here. He already took the Golden Globe.

What Should Have Been: At the risk of sounding repetitive: Sean Penn.

BEST ACTOR

Look for: Daniel Day-Lewis, for “There Will Be Blood.” It is a performance from which all the year’s other nominees could learn a thing or two.

Don’t Be Surprised: If Tommy Lee Jones steals it with his understated performance in the oft-praised and never-seen “In the Valley of Elah.”

What Should Have Been: Philip Seymour Hoffman, maybe as the evil brother in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead,” maybe as the wounded son in “The Savages.” Maybe because he’s the most reliable actor working today.

BEST ACTRESS

Look for: The haunting Julie Christie (“Away From Her”) to eke out a win over the much-praised Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) and the buzz-worthy Ellen Page (“Juno”), who turns 21 today.

Don’t Be Surprised: If young Ms. Page has a few extra glasses of champagne after she’s welcomed up onstage as the evening’s youngest winner (if this happens, by the way, look for the Best Picture upset).

What Should Have Been: Angelina Jolie, for her devastating, gut-wrenching performance in “A Mighty Heart.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Look for: Javier Bardem, this year’s second-strongest Best Actor nominee, who for some reason is being honored here, as a supporting actor. Everyone knows he’s going to win; it’s not even worth televising.

Don’t Be Surprised: If Hal Holbrook, for his tender-hearted grandfather figure in “Into the Wild” (yes, it did get a nomination!), stuns the crowd.

What Should Have Been: Everyone is talking about Mr. Bardem, but what about the heart and soul of “No Country,” Josh Brolin?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Look for: Amy Ryan, whose flawed, scarred, and desperate mother in “Gone Baby Gone” carried the film.

Don’t Be Surprised: If Ruby Dee, who won in a high-profile way at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, gets the lifetime achievement award of the evening for her five (or so) minutes in “American Gangster.”

What Should Have Been: Again, everyone talks about the boys of “No Country,” but what about Kelly Macdonald, the movie’s truest soul, in her final confrontation with Mr. Bardem’s killer, its most tragic victim?

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Look for: “Ratatouille,” another Pixar sweep.

Don’t Be Surprised: If “Persepolis” rides the more politically minded voters to victory.

What Should Have Been: “Surf’s Up”? Better than “The Simpsons Movie”? Looking at last year’s box-office totals, I have 183 million reasons why that might not be the case.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Look for: The scathing policy documentary “No End in Sight.” This was the one Iraq film from 2007 that captivated most critics and documentary lovers. More than that, it was the unlikely documentary that made its way onto dozens of year-end top 10 lists.

Don’t Be Surprised: If “Taxi to the Dark Side,” another sobering Middle Eastern-set tome about America’s torturing of terrorism suspects, sneaks in for a win.

What Should Have Been: “Into Great Silence,” the year’s most intoxicating documentary, about the solitary life of monks in the head monastery of France’s Carthusian Order, that almost no one saw.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Look for: “The Counterfeiters” (Germany), this year’s Holocaust entry.

Don’t Be Surprised: If anything else wins; the voters have already proven they don’t take this award seriously (see “4 Months” below).

What Should Have Been: “4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days” (Romania), Cristian Mingiu’s unforgettable thriller about the horrors of abortion in a communist state. It won Cannes, was one of 2007’s great achievements, and was not even nominated for an Oscar.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Look for: “Juno,” Diablo Cody’s first screenplay. She’ll be 1-for-1.

What Should Have Been: “Great World of Sound,” the brilliant Craig Zobel dramedy about art, friendship, business ethics, and capitalism run amok that approximately 30 New Yorkers saw.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Look for: Sarah Greenwood (“Atonement”)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Look for: Robert Elswit (“There Will Be Blood”)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Look for: Jacqueline Durran (“Atonement”)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Look for: “Freeheld”

BEST FILM EDITING

Look for: Roderick Jaynes (aka the Coens, “No Country”)

BEST MAKEUP

Look for: Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald (“La Vie en Rose”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Look for: Dario Marianelli (“Atonement”)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Look for: “Falling Slowly” (“Once”)

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Look for: “My Love”

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Look for: “At Night”

BEST SOUND EDITING

Look for: Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg (“The Bourne Ultimatum”)

BEST SOUND MIXING

Look for: Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter Kurland (“No Country”)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Look for: Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier (“Transformers”)