Only a few weeks ago, the 79th Academy Awards were shaping up to be the least interesting in years. With the four major acting categories all but sewn-up, many wondered where the drama would be found. But then “Babel” conquered the Golden Globes and “Little Miss Sunshine” stole the Screen Actors Guild Awards, setting up an open field for the Best Picture Oscar. Now, with Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood locked in what seems like their annual match for directing honors, and a host of other categories offering no clue as to their outcome, S. JAMES SNYDER scans the ballot for the Academy’s most dramatic storylines.

Best Picture – Nominees
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
The Queen

WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Letters From Iwo Jima
OUR GRIPE: Just what does the misguided Hollywood elite see in this clichéd Sundance darling anyway? “Little Miss Sunshine” represents everything that’s wrong with today’s “art cinema” culture — and for that matter, everything that’s wrong today with Sundance. Meanwhile, “Iwo Jima,” the year’s bravest and boldest statement, gets sidelined.

Best Director – Nominees
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Alejandro Gonzalez, Babel
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
SHOULD WIN: Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
OUR GRIPE: Yes, Mr. Scorsese should win an Oscar one of these years — for a film that actually towers above its competition. But Mr. Eastwood’s “Iwo Jima,” when paired with his other WWII drama, “Flags of Our Fathers,” was the directing achievement of the year — except of course for Darren Aronofsky’s visionary “The Fountain” (but that gripe is for another day).

Best Actor – Nominees
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Peter O’Toole, Venus

WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
SHOULD WIN: Whitaker
OUR GRIPE: Couldn’t they bestow two awards this year so as to avoid the unseemly prospect of Peter O’Toole dying without an Oscar statue to his name? No, his honorary award in 2003 doesn’t count.

Best Actress – Nominees
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Kate Winslet, Little Children

WILL WIN: Helen Mirren, The Queen
SHOULD WIN: Mirren
OUR GRIPE: Actually, none — surprisingly, we’re satisfied here. For once, Ms. Streep, the lone American in the race, doesn’t stand a chance.

Best Supporting Actor – Nominees

Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

WILL WIN: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
OUR GRIPE: That the age-old Eddie Murphy vs. Hollywood drama has eclipsed Mr. Haley’s work — by far the most haunting and memorable supporting performance of the year.

Best Supporting Actress – Nominees
Adriana Barranza, Babel
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

WILL WIN: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
SHOULD WIN: Adriana Barraza, Babel
OUR GRIPE: That tabloid shortsightedness has made Ms. Hudson’s personal story of tragedy-to-triumph just too enticing for voters to resist, leaving Ms. Barraza’s affecting, tortured performance tragically out of contention.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Cars”
“Happy Feet”
“Monster House”
Will Win: “Cars”
Should Win: “Monster House”
Gripe: Pixar — always go with Pixar.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“After the Wedding” (Denmark)
“Days of Glory” (Algeria)
“Pan’s Labyrint” (Mexico)
“The Lives of Others” (Germany)
“Water” (Canada)
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Gripe: Such a great group of nominees. Couldn’t one or two have broken into the best picture race instead — in the place of “Little Miss Sunshine”?

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“Deliver Us From Evil”
“An Inconvenient Truth”
“Iraq in Fragments”
“Jesus Camp”
“My Country, My Country”
Will Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Should Win: “Deliver Us From Evil”
Gripe: That it took a movie — a movie! — for America’s mainstream entertainment industry to wake up and get involved in global warming awareness. C’mon, read a newspaper, people.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Guillermo Arriaga (“Babel”)
Guillermo Del Toro (“Pan’s Labyrinth”)
Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis (“Letters From Iwo Jima”)
Peter Morgan (“The Queen”) Michael Arndt (“Little Miss Sunshine”)
Will Win: Michael Arndt (“Little Miss Sunshine”)
Should Win: Peter Morgan (“The Queen”)
Gripe: In an ideal world, this is an award destined for the exquisitely written “The Queen,” but this year’s “Sunshine” lovefest will begin here, clearing the way for the best picture surprise to come.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, & Todd Phillips (“Borat”)
Alfonso Cuarón, Timothy J. Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, and Hawk Ostby (“Children of Men”)
William Monahan (“The Departed”)
Todd Field and Tom Perrotta (“Little Children”)
Patrick Marber (“Notes on a Scandal”)
Will Win: William Monahan (“The Departed”)
Should Win: The “Children of Men” Team
Gripe: Was there any film more subtle, yet richly textured, this year than “Children of Men”? The answer is no — it should be nominated for more than awards than this.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Gustavo Santaolalla (“Babel”)
Thomas Newman (“The Good German”)
Javier Navarrete (“Pan’s Labyrinth”)
Philip Glass (“Notes on a Scandal”)
Alexandre Desplat (“The Queen”)
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat (“The Queen”)
Should Win: Gustavo Santaolalla (“Babel”)
Gripe: While all the nominees are deserving, they all pale in comparison to Clint Mansell’s pensive, thrilling and transcendent score for “The Fountain.” Just go buy it now, before it goes out of print.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Randy Newman — “Our Town” (“Cars”)
Henry Krieger – “Listen” (“Dreamgirls”)
Henry Krieger – “Love You I Do” (“Dreamgirls”)
Henry Krieger – “Patience” (“Dreamgirls”)
Melissa Etheridge – “I Need To Wake Up” (“An Inconvenient Truth”)
Will Win: Melissa Ethridge, “I Need to Wake Up”
Should Win: None of the above.
Gripe: Um, all the songs stink. That’s the gripe, as well as the fact that three — yes three! — slots were eaten up by bland, derivative “Dreamgirls” songs that weren’t even featured in the original musical. Let’s make some room for some more deserving nominees — like Borat’s rendition of the national anthem. Now there’s an Oscar night performance we’d pay to see.