Running With the Bull Market
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Next week’s results certainly make for a nail-biter. But for the few thousand art collectors, dealers, and auction houses who trade in million-dollar artworks, the drama won’t end with election returns. The real action gets going on Wednesday and Thursday night, when Christie’s and Sotheby’s mount their fall Impressionist and Modern art sales. Contemporary art follows on November 9 and 10 and at Phillips de Pury & Company on November 11. During the next two weeks, at least $500 million in artwork – and possibly more than $800 million – will change hands. The prices and pace of the sales will set the tone for the entire fall season.
Last spring’s sales established a highflying art market, and a sense that the sky was the limit. Overall, demand was high for important Modern and contemporary artworks, with less enthusiasm for Impressionists. “The spring was very successful, both for private and public sales,” said private dealer Franck Giraud, of Giraud, Segalot and Pissarro. This fall’s auctions are filled with many interesting and some outstanding artworks, but there will be no bargains. Owners seem to be betting that the market is near the top, and are cashing out before things go south again.
Not only did sellers demand huge estimates, they demanded no-risk deals. The auction catalogs are littered with symbols indicating that property has been guaranteed. (According to SEC filings, Sotheby’s has guaranteed more than $129 million to sellers for fourth quarter sales; Christie’s is privately held and doesn’t release guarantee figures.) Some dealers say the auction house estimates are being a bit too optimistic. “The market is really frothy right now,” said the director of Richard Gray Gallery, Andrew Fabricant. “There’s been too much exuberance, and maybe this time will be the moment when it goes a little sideways.”
The aggressive auction estimates may turn buyers off, leaving property on the auction block; there is a sense that a price correction is in order. “It’s going to be interesting to see how the market absorbs this new price structure,” said Mr. Fabricant. “It’s at least 20% higher than last year.” Mr. Fabricant doesn’t necessarily think a little let-down would be a bad thing. Mr. Giraud, on the other hand, doesn’t expect one. “The estimates are very full, but they reflect prices which have been achieved and are not out of line,” he said.
Even last Spring not everything fared well. A rare De Chirico canvas, with an impeccable provenance (it was sold by MoMA) scraped the low $7 million estimate. There was a general sluggishness for anything ho-hum, especially from the pre-Modern era. “It’s been a much choosier market,” said dealer Jennifer Vorbach of C&M Arts. “There’s more knowledge now about the art world than ever before. There are more catalogues raisonnes and more art magazines out there. Collectors do more homework.”
The rule has been that the rare and wonderful bring extraordinary prices, while lesser works fall by the wayside. Some wealthy contemporary art collectors have also been dipping backward, skimming important works that informed the current crop of big-name artists. This overlap has caused prices for mid-century works to jump.
It will be instructive to see what happens for lesser works, especially those tagged with hefty estimates. “Estimates are strong across the board,” said Andrea Crane of Jan Krugier Gallery. “Some things are great quality and some are not the greatest quality.”
While Sotheby’s and Christie’s contemporary sales look to be fairly even, Sotheby’s pulled in the stronger Impressionist and Modern material. Its evening sale is estimated to bring in $203-275 million, well above Christie’s $112-158 million. During the Spring sales, Christie’s hammered down just $76.5 million against Sotheby’s $297 million (bolstered by the Whitney pictures).
Some of the most remarkable paintings and sculpture come from Esther Diamond, the widow of art dealer Harold Diamond. Ms. Diamond, an interior designer and mother of Beastie Boy Mike D, collects Old Master paintings and has been selling off modern works over the years.
The six Diamond pieces at Sotheby’s, estimated to bring $61 million, do not include what was certainly one of the couple’s most spectacular possessions: Brancusi’s 1926 “Bird in Space,” which anchored the living room of their Central ParkWest aerie. The gleaming brass sculpture was reportedly sold privately to a former president of Microsoft, Jon Shirley, for $30 million. But a Brancusi is still available. The rough-hewn, 1-foot tall limestone sculpture called “The Kiss,” (c. 1908) which Diamond bought at Parke-Bernet in 1972 for $40,000, is estimated to sell at $8-12 million.
The collection also includes “New York. 1941/Boogie Woogie” by Mondrian. The first version of this painting, a stark, white square with just a few black lines, went unsold when Mondrian first exhibited it in 1941, according to the Sotheby’s catalog. The artist continued working on it, adding red, blue, and yellow. A friend, painter Carl Holty, asked him about the changes. “It was empty as hell,” Mondrian said. “Anybody could see that.” The picture sold the next year for $400.While Mondrian has never cracked the $10 million mark at auction, dealers say this work is so rare – one of only three canvases he finished while in the United States – that the low estimate of $20 million is not such a stretch.
Indeed, trying to find auction comparables for many of the Diamond pictures is an exercise in futility. The auction record for a Kandinsky is $20.9 million, yet one in the Diamond collection is estimated $20-30 million. “I think we’re giving accurate guides,” said David Norman, co-chairman of Sotheby’s Impressionist and Modern department. “These are great, lastchance pictures.”
Another standout, from a different collector, is Amedeo Modigliani’s 1919 portrait of his wife and muse “Jeanne Hebuterne (Devant une Porte),” estimated to sell for between $20-30 million. Some dealers suggested the estimate might be too high, given that Jeanne is dressed. Prices for clothed portraits have capped out around $15 million at auction. And last spring at Christie’s a portrait of one of the artist’s most faithful patrons, estimated at $6-9 million, didn’t sell. But Mr. Norman points to the Modigliani nude that fetched $26.9 million at Christie’s last fall for seller Stephen Wynn. The Wynn price gave Sotheby’s the confidence that this picture could hit the same heights. “You cannot get paintings of this quality,” agreed private dealer Alberto Mugrabi. “When you buy great quality, you have to pay great prices.”
The Modigliani was consigned by the widow of Wendell Cherry, co-founder of Humana, a Louisville, Ky., health benefits company, and a man with a fabulous eye for art. Following Cherry’s death in 1991, Dorothy Cherry has been selling her husband’s collection at Sotheby’s. The Cherrys bought the Modigliani more than 23 years ago, so it is coming to the market relatively “fresh,” as dealers and collectors prefer.
Each season, some paintings get bad pre-sale buzz from dealers. “Maternite,” the sensuous 1899 Tahitian image by Paul Gauguin on sale Sotheby’s, is estimated to bring $40-50 million (a second version of “Maternite” is in the Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg, and Tahitian Gauguins don’t come up for auction all that often). But dealers say it has been offered around privately for the past couple years and has some condition issues.
Mr. Norman said the condition issues are false and that the picture, examined by three conservators, is in above average condition for a Tahitian Gauguin. “Every Gauguin is not in pristine condition,” said Mr. Norman. “They were painted on burlap, rolled up and shipped to Paris, and all developed cracking early on. All of these paintings have some restoration.”
The best material at Christie’s harkens back to the Impressionists. The two biggest-ticket items are canvases by Claude Monet and Vincent van Gogh. A hazy purple view of the London Parliament by Monet comes from a French private collector and has not been available on the market since it was painted 110 years ago. Monet worked in London from 1899 to 1904 and made some 19 paintings of the Parliament building. Today, just four of this series remain in private hands. The rarity, provenance, and Monet cachet give this winter scene, titled “Londres, le Parlement, effect de soleil dans le brouillard,” a good chance of exceeding the estimate of $12-18 million.
Another European collector is selling an 1888 van Gogh view of a bridge, “Le Pont de Trinquetaille,” also estimated to bring $12-18 million, and Camille Pissarro’s 1872 “Quatres Saisons,” estimated at $8-12 million for four canvases. This cycle represented Pissarro’s first private commission and was executed when the artist was working alongside Paul Cezanne. Art historian Joachim Pissarro (now a senior curator at MoMA) has noted that these artists influenced each other profoundly and Cezanne felt a kinship with Pissarro, praising their as work “painting with real balls.”
Christie’s also won a collection from Nathan Halpern, a New Yorker who pioneered the use of closed-circuit television. Mr. Halpern is committed to New York causes and is a trustee of the Central Park Conservancy and president of the International Center for Photography. The highlight of Mr. Halpern’s collection is Joan Miro’s 1938 “La Caresse des etoiles” (est. $6-8 million). During World War II, Halpern was stationed in Europe. Following the liberation of Paris in 1944, he discovered the Miro, but lacked money to acquire it. Instead, he traded Parisian dealer Pierre Loeb his overcoat for the canvas. Miro fared well at auction this spring at Christie’s. One of the best works in the sale was a spectacular 1947 canvas “Le rouge, le bleu, le bel espoir” which fetched $5.3 million (est. $4-6 million) and was the second highest lot of the sale.
Christie’s will have a tougher sell with a 1900 “Portrait de Femme” by Cezanne. There is no question of its importance as an object, but with an $9-12 million estimate, a buyer might just want the face hanging on the wall to be a bit more pleasing.