Monday’s 64th annual Golden Globes offered shockingly few surprises and, more important, surprisingly little Oscar clarification. Whereas in most years the Golden Globes offer a boozy stepchild to the dressed-up Oscars and stand as a reliable source to what the thoughts of the average Academy Awards voter might be, this year’s Globes were tame, timid, and relatively meaningless.

Sure, Borat, er, Sacha Baron Cohen, gave us a funny speech at the expense of his well-proportioned co-star, Kenneth Davitian, but that was about it; five minutes of refuge from three hours of tedium. When it was all over, the Oscar dance floor was still crowded with hopeful films. In this corner, there was “The Departed” (best director for Martin Scorsese); in the others were “The Queen” (best actress for Helen Mirren and best screenplay), “Babel” (best picture drama), “Letters from Iwo Jima” (best foreign film), and “Dreamgirls” (best picture musical, best supporting actor for Eddie Murphy, and best supporting actress for Jennifer Hudson).

One through five, there they were, the same top dogs that have traded places in the spotlight since mid-December. The biggest question remaining after Arnold Schwarzenegger sent the stars home from the Beverly Hilton was not who the evening’s big winner was, but rather what holes were left — if any — for a potential Oscar surprise come Tuesday morning, when the nominees for the 79th Academy Awards will finally be announced and this whole game will jump into overtime.

No doubt those nominees will be laced with hopeless contenders. Make no mistake, Forest Whitaker will win best actor, Ms. Mirren will win best actress, and Mr. Scorsese, more likely than not, will finally win his first best directing Oscar despite two possible nods for Clint Eastwood. “Dreamgirls” will emerge as the heavyweight in many of the technical categories, from art direction to cinematography, editing to sound design.

And so the question remains: Where will this year’s Oscar drama lurk? Well, four major categories will offer the suspense Tuesday morning.

As any longtime awards fan knows, most of the serious competition at the Oscars plays out within the two screenplay categories. That’s where “The Squid and the Whale” and “The Constant Gardener” had a fighting chance last year amid the “Brokeback Mountain” hysteria, and where “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” and “Sideways” actually won awards in 2005, despite the “Million Dollar Baby” hoopla. This year, “The Queen” has emerged as a strong screenplay contender (it won the Golden Globe), as has “Little Children” (for adapted screenplay) and “Little Miss Sunshine” (for original screenplay).

Since Ms. Hudson has locked up the supporting actress category, which is usually the more competitive arena, the interest instead drifts over to supporting actor, where Mr. Murphy’s Golden Globe victory might be the one Globes moment that actually matters. While speculation has swirled around Mr. Murphy as to whether he has ticked off too many in Hollywood over the years to win an award for his show-stopping work in “Dreamgirls,” the Globes seemed to suggest it’s his year, even if he’s up against the likes of Jack Nicholson (“The Departed”) and Brad Pitt (“Babel”).

It’s the competition for best picture, though, where the real drama is unfolding. Barring some shocking twist of fate, “Babel,” “Dreamgirls,” and “The Queen” will be nominated Tuesday. But at least seven films are vying for those final two slots, and all enjoy decent odds of filling the void: “The Departed,” “Letters From Iwo Jima,” “Flags of Our Fathers,” “United 93,” “Little Children,” “Children of Men,” and the little film that could — and just might — be the surprise of the season: “Little Miss Sunshine.” We’ll place our money on “Iwo Jima” and “Little Miss Sunshine” to round out the roster.

So thanks, Golden Globes, for nothing; it’s Tuesday that will finally streamline the competition and launch us into the last lap of the Oscar race. We’ve established that Ms. Hudson will be nominated — and will almost surely win — for “Dreamgirls”; that Mr. Whitaker will be nominated and will win for his breathtaking portrayal of Idi Amin in “The Last King of Scotland” (let’s just hope he writes down his speech this time); that they’re already engraving Ms. Mirren’s gold statuette for “The Queen”; that “Dreamgirls” will be nominated for best picture despite its lukewarm critical reception; and that Mr. Scorsese will be nominated for best director and, after all these years, might just win his first Oscar.

Now for the drama. Here are five nominees you won’t see Tuesday morning:

• “The Painted Veil,” the overseas Oscar vehicle for Edward Norton and Naomi Watts, won’t show up in the best picture category. It will probably not even pay off for either of the stars in the acting categories.

• Mr. Cohen, a.k.a. Borat, despite his Golden Globe victory, will disappear from the debate.

• “Apocalypto,” which opened hot and fizzled quickly, is done. There’s only room enough for one American director in the foreign language film debate, and he once played Dirty Harry.

• “Thank You for Smoking,” the brilliant comedy that made its premiere in March, will be woefully forgotten.

• “World Trade Center,” which some critics erroneously hailed as one of the earliest surefire Oscar hits of 2006, will be missing from the ballot.

TEN-TO-ONE ODDS

Don’t put any money on these picks, but here are three outside chances we’re secretly hoping for.

• “The Devil and Daniel Johnston,” the brilliant documentary that tells the story of the underground musician and renowned artist while exploring that fine line between artistic genius and sheer madness, could still squeak its way into the documentary category.

• “United 93” director Paul Greengrass delivered the bravest — and some critics say one of the best — directorial outings of the year. Is there a chance he could sneak his way onto the list of nominees?

• We’re the first to say that David Lynch’s “Inland Empire” didn’t make a lick of sense, but might Laura Dern’s ravishing, multidimensional performance (think wife, actress, prostitute, murderer, stoner) have wowed enough voters to earn her recognition?

We’ll wait and see…