As Primary Votes Roll In, a Competitive General Election Comes Into Focus

With Granite Staters at the polls, the nearly inevitable general election rematch between Presidents Biden and Trump is coming into focus, and it looks like it’s going to be close.Regardless of whether Ambassador Nikki Haley pulls out a surprisingly strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Mr. Trump’s eventual victory in the GOP primary looks increasingly likely.Whether Ms. Haley drops out after New Hampshire or goes on to South Carolina — a rematch of 2020, something that many Americans appear to be dreading — is on the horizon.A professor of data science at Saint Louis’s Washington University, Liberty Vittert, who also serves as the chief data scientist at Decision Desk HQ, tells the Sun that there are three main issues she’s tracking going into 2024: Mr. Trump’s electability, Mr. Biden’s border policy, and the economy.Since the early days of the GOP primary, Ms. Haley has been making the arguments that she is more electable than Mr. Trump, and polling indicates that she is probably right about that in the context of the general election. A recent Echelon Insights survey finds that Ms. Haley leads Mr. Biden by 45 percent to 40 percent on the national level, whereas Mr. Trump leads him by 47 percent to 46 percent.Ms. Vittert says, though, that this difference is “pretty irrelevant” 10 months out from the election, and that it also reflects “huge negative ads going up against both Republican candidates.” She says she expects the Republican nominee’s polling against Mr. Biden to improve once intra-party fighting has subsided.In terms of Mr. Biden’s border policy, Ms. Vittert says it “has the potential to be the biggest factor in 2024” if the president fails to take action on the issue.“If Biden does do something major to stop the insanity, then he has a fighting chance, because voters’ memories on the border crisis are notoriously short,” Ms. Vittert says.As it stands, negotiators in the Senate have been working toward a deal to help address the border situation — even though Mr. Trump has rallied some congressional Republicans against passing any legislation on the border while Mr. Biden is in office.Finally, Ms. Vittert referenced Democratic strategist James Carville’s famous quip, “It’s the economy, stupid.” On this front, Mr. Biden appears to have received some good news.In January, consumer sentiment hit its highest point in two and a half years, with the index rising to 78.8 from 69.7 in December, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. While higher consumer sentiment hasn’t yet been reflected in Mr. Biden’s approval numbers, it would likely work to benefit the president if voter’s view of the economy continues to improve.The founder of an election handicapping website, Race to the WH, Logan Phillips, tells the Sun: “The polling today is in a bad place for Joe Biden but the fortunate thing for Joe Biden is that polling changes a lot.”Mr. Phillips noted such examples as 1988, when Governor Dukakis was significantly ahead in the polls at this point in the race, or 2008, when Senator McCain had a lead.“We actually find that polling is … a little less predictive for presidential races at this point in the race than it is for Senate races,” Mr. Phillips says. “I think we should start with 2020 as the base point.”One thing for which Mr. Phillips is watching this year is how voters’ opinions of Messrs. Trump and Biden would change if and when they become their party’s nominees. Tied to this is how voters’ views of Mr. Trump would change as his criminal trials get under way.“I think one of the really big things to watch is what is going to happen with these trials,” Mr. Phillips says. “If Trump is convicted we see a real drop off in support, about 6 percent in the national polling,” adding that the drop in support is larger in swing states.Mr. Phillips suggested that this could be a surrogate for Americans’ feelings about Mr. Trump’s “willingness to color outside the lines of the law,” saying that increased focus on the trials could be good for Mr. Biden.One wild card, as Mr. Phillips sees it, is how third-party bids by attorney Robert Kennedy Jr. and a potential bid by a not yet chosen No Labels candidate play out.“I think it is probably more of a danger to Joe Biden than Donald Trump,” Mr. Phillips noted, adding that he saw Mr. Kennedy as the exception, potentially drawing from Mr. Trump’s supporters. “But I do expect support for third-party candidates to go down.”Mr. Phillips added that “Americans tend to be good at strategic voting” and that he expects to see “the bases come home” as the stakes of the election come into focus.

As Primary Votes Roll In, a Competitive General Election Comes Into Focus

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