Betting Markets See Trump as a Nearly Sure Winner in Iowa, as Candidates Try To Exceed Expectations

With the Iowa caucuses days away, overseas bettors are putting down money on what they expect to happen at the first in the nation nomination contest and the rest of the presidential election.Bettors on PredictIt, a website that allows people to bet on all sorts of news events, including politics, appear to overwhelmingly see President Trump as the favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses.While political gambling is outlawed in America, political betting web sites allow bettors in parts of the world where it is legal to wager on the outcomes of American political events. On PredictIt, bettors buy contracts that they are able to buy or sell ahead of the event that they are predicting. Once the contract closes, meaning the event that they are predicting comes to pass, bettors who successfully predicted the correct outcome will be given $1 for each contract they have.Currently, contracts predicting that Mr. Trump will win the Iowa caucuses are trading at 94 cents, meaning bettors appear to think that his victory is nearly a sure thing.Contracts predicting Governor DeSantis wins Iowa are now trading at 8 cents, and contracts predicting Ambassador Nikki Haley wins Iowa are trading at 2 cents. Contracts predicting that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins are also trading at 2 cents.For the New Hampshire primary, contracts predicting Mr. Trump’s victory are trading at 70 cents, while contracts predicting Ms. Haley’s victory are trading at 33 cents. Contracts for Mr. DeSantis are trading at 2 cents.For the November election, on the GOP side, contracts predicting Mr. Trump’s nomination are trading at 78 cents, and contracts predicting Ms. Haley’s nomination are trading at 17 cents. Contracts for Messrs. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are trading at 6 cents and 8 cents, respectively.On the Democratic side, contracts predicting President Biden’s nomination are trading at 79 cents, while contracts predicting Governor Newsom’s nomination are trading at 11 cents.Contracts predicting Vice President Harris’s nomination for the presidency are trading at 7 cents, and contracts predicting Senator Clinton are trading at 3 cents.On another betting website, Smarkets, bettors give Mr. Trump an 80 percent chance of being the GOP nominee while they give Ms. Haley a 14 percent chance and Mr. DeSantis a 3 percent chance.Likewise, Smarkets bettors give Mr. Biden a 75 percent chance, Mr. Newsom a 7 percent chance, and first lady Michelle Obama a 9 percent chance of being nominated for president by the Democratic Party.While betting markets allow overseas bettors to put their money where their mouths are in predicting American elections, a political scientist at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, tells the Sun that the campaigns have goals beside outright victory in Iowa and New Hampshire.“Second place is what matters,” Mr. Arbour tells the Sun. “Traditionally, this Iowa’s mattered for two reasons: one, it winnows the field, and then two, whoever gets a boost out of Iowa gets momentum moving forward.”As it stands, the competition for second place is between Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, with Ms. Haley leading in both states.In Iowa, Ms. Haley leads Mr. DeSantis 17 percent to 16 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. In New Hampshire, she leads him 30 percent to 6 percent.Mr. Arbour says that an unexpectedly strong performance from either of these candidates could encourage soft supporters of Mr. Trump to give a candidate a second or even a first look.Still, Mr. Arbour says, “the path is very narrow,” and he says he’s unconvinced that any candidate beside Mr. Trump has a realistic path to the nomination unless the former president suffers a health emergency.Mr. Arbour added that the momentum gained from a good performance in Iowa or New Hampshire can still be useful for candidates in positioning them for future elections or in drawing attention from the press. The final thing Mr. Arbour says he’s watching in Iowa is how evangelical voters vote there, asking, “How many will go to DeSantis and how many will go to Trump?”“Iowa is usually a place where evangelical voters are quite important, I’m never sure if that’s because there are large numbers in the Republican party or there’s just more willing to turn out,” Mr. Arbour says.

Betting Markets See Trump as a Nearly Sure Winner in Iowa, as Candidates Try To Exceed Expectations

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