President Biden is promising to reward the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack by giving the Palestinian Arabs something they’ve craved for decades — a sovereign state. That’s the exact message that’s been coming from the White House in recent days.

It is a warning that the public support from Mr. Biden for Israel in the immediate aftermath of the attack — including a wartime visit to Tel Aviv, sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean, and asking Congress for billions of additional military aid for Israel — is shifting. 

If Mr. Biden persists in abandoning the shoulder to shoulder, “no daylight” approach that has brought him appreciation from Israelis and American Jewry, he is in danger of turning what has been a relative foreign policy bright spot into a diplomatic disaster that could fuel a wider regional war. 

A majority of Israelis would eventually like to cease the occupation of the West Bank and live peacefully with neighboring Palestinians, which is why Israelis and Americans have long spoken of an eventual “two state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yet the attack of October 7 from Gaza clarified for Israelis that allowing alongside Israel a fully sovereign Palestinian state — with an army, an airport, and control of its borders — anytime soon would be suicidal. 

In addition to the risks of creating a state that could be a launchpad for further attacks, Israelis worry about the symbolism. If the terrorist killing of 1,200 Israelis — beheading, raping, burning — puts Palestinian statehood suddenly on the front diplomatic burner, it could send the world the message that an even deadlier attack — say, a Hezbollah onslaught from Lebanon, or a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon attack on Tel Aviv or Jerusalem — might reap for the Arabs or their Iranian sponsors even richer rewards.

Mr. Biden spoke about it on November 24 at Nantucket, Massachusetts. “We need to renew our resolve to pursue this two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians can one day live side by side in a two-state solution with equal measure of freedom and dignity,” Mr. Biden said. “Two states for two peoples. And it’s more important now than ever.”
 
The “one day” qualification is helpful, suggesting that it might be sometime in the distant future, after the necessary work of building civil society, education, and cultivating a new generation of Palestinian leaders dedicated to peace, democracy, and rule of law. Yet plenty of other recent communication from the administration has been less nuanced.

It risks inflating hopes among Palestinians for immediate statehood, which is something no Israeli government can tolerate after October 7. A November 22 White House “readout” of a call between Mr. Biden and President Al-Sisi of Egypt reported, “The President affirmed his commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

In a call between Mr. Biden and Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani of Qatar on November 22, another White House “readout” reported, “President Biden and Sheikh Tamim agreed to continue close consultation on setting the conditions for a durable and sustainable peace in the Middle East, to include the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

A November 26 tweet from Mr. Biden said, “A two-state solution is the only way to guarantee the long-term security of both the Israeli and the Palestinian people. To make sure Israelis and Palestinians alike can live in equal measures of freedom and dignity. We will not give up on working toward this goal.”

The “long-term” qualification is helpful, but the fact that the terror attack has moved Palestinian statehood higher on Mr. Biden’s national security priority to-do list is horrifying. It will increase Hamas’s popularity among Palestinians if the terrorist group is able to deliver what Mr. Biden describes as his “goal.”

“The Palestinian people deserve a state of their own,” Mr. Biden averred in a November 18, 2023, Washington Post op-ed. Yet there are lots of reasons the Palestinian Arabs lack for a state. Generations of Arabs have rejected any solution short of fully obliterating Israel.

Israelis suspect that any “state-minus” conditions the Palestinians do agree to — demilitarization, Israeli control over incoming cargo, non-terrorist leadership — would be temporary, or that a Palestinian state alongside Israel would be merely the first stage, in which the next stage is to attempt to wipe the Jewish state off the map.

The Palestinian Arabs in previous negotiating rounds have been unwilling to accept compromises over Jerusalem or refugee “right of return.” Iran tries to undermine any peace deal with new rounds of attacks on Israel. A minority of the Israeli electorate steadfastly opposes any land-for-promises-of-peace deal.

After Hamas is defeated, Israel and America both have strong reasons to push for strengthened civil society in Gaza and Judea and Samaria. As Natan Sharansky has noted, October 7 destroyed any illusions.

 “You cannot simply decide it’s not our business what is happening there,” is the way he puts it. Yet if Mr. Biden raises unrealistic expectations among Palestinians about the pace of statehood, the disappointment could be deadly, with harmful consequences for American national security that extend well beyond the Middle East.