Biden, Xi Laying the Ground for a Summit in the Fall, as Relations Grow Warmer and Colder at the Same Time
Yanks ready military aid for the Republic of China on Taiwan as war clouds scud over the Straits.

Washington’s ambivalent policy on Communist China portends both a warming of relations and rising tensions over Taiwan spinning out of control.
The contradiction is that Secretary of State Blinken is inviting China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, for talks to smooth over escalating differences even as President Biden okays the sale by the American government of arms to the island democracy.
The contrast in moves between America and China raises the question: How could relations get better and worse simultaneously?
Sino-American relations are teetering on the brink scarcely more than a year after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the House, infuriated Beijing by leading a congressional delegation to Taipei. The trip precipitated Chinese air and naval exercises as a warning of Chinese invasion.
“Solidarity with the people of Taiwan is as important as ever, as our world faces a stark choice between democracy and autocracy,” Mrs. Pelosi said on the anniversary of her controversial visit. “Beijing’s continued aggression against Taiwan is cowardly and cannot be met with silence.”
Mr. Blinken. however, hopes to tamp down the volume of recriminations by meeting with Mr. Wang at Washington, building on “important conversations” that he, the treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, and the climate change envoy, John Kerry, have had in Beijing. That’s in keeping with Mr. Biden’s forecast in May, after the G7 summit in Hiroshima of leaders of the seven largest capitalist countries, of a “thaw” in tensions between Beijing and Washington.
No sooner had Mr. Blinken, visiting Beijing, seen the man who was then China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, however, than the White House announced that Mr. Biden was promising the Free Chinese government on Taiwan some $345 million in military aid under the National Defense Authorization Act.
The move “would involve U.S. taxpayers funding the arms supply for the first time,” said the Financial Times, adding that Mr. Biden was “also poised to unveil an executive order that will restrict American investment into sectors in China with “military applications.”
The Chinese, as expected, were furious — but not necessarily to the point of getting more aggressive militarily toward the Republic of China than they have been ever since Mrs. Pelosi’s visit a year ago. The Americans, said a spokesman for the People’s Republic, were “turning Taiwan into a powder keg and ammunition depot, aggravating the threat of war in the Taiwan Strait.”
That statement, issued as Chinese warplanes intruded into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and warships hovered outside Taiwan’s territorial waters, had a pro forma air. It was as if Mr. Xi was going through the motions of rage without stepping up threats against Taiwan, which he has frequently vowed to bring under mainland control.
The State Department obviously would like to brush off the issue of American arms aid to Taiwan, with which Washington has had no diplomatic relations since 1978, when President Carter formally recognized the communist government in Beijing as the government of China. Right after Mr. Wang had replaced Mr. Qin as foreign minister, Mr. Blinken transferred the invitation from the latter to the former.
There was no comment from the State Department on the seeming paradox of selling arms to Taiwan, where Washington is represented by an “institute” rather than an embassy, and going for more rounds of top-level talks. There are no American military bases on Taiwan, but the number of American military personnel on the island is edging up. About 200 advisers are there now, training on using weapons and talking about strategy.
The assistant secretary for East Asia and Pacific affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, and the director for Communist China at the National Security Council, Sarah Beran, have recently had what the State Department called “a candid, substantive and productive discussion” in Washington with China’s top official for North America, Yang Tao.
Delicately, the State Department hinted that Taiwan had been on the agenda in the context of “cross strait issues.” That is a diplomatic way of mentioning the furor whenever Chinese forces stage exercises near Taiwan. The “candid, substantive and productive discussion,” said the State Department, was “part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communications” in a session that also covered “bilateral, regional and global issues, including Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
The level of Communist China’s support for Russia in Ukraine is also critical considering the parallel between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Communist China’s threats to take over Taiwan. The State Department has said Communist China is secretly providing arms for the Russians, a charge that the Chinese party denies.
The ultimate aim is for a summit between President Biden and the Chinese party boss, Mr. Xi. They had a talk at the summit of the world’s 20 most important countries in Bali in November. Mr. Biden may host Mr. Xi around the anniversary of that summit in November.
How, though, can Messrs. Biden and Xi exchange handshakes and smiles when China is raising a ruckus about Taiwan? The Chinese no doubt will be complaining mightily about the Biden administration approving the direct sale of arms to Taiwan, but China may not be in a great position to go beyond rhetoric.
Mr. Xi, having been overconfident about China’s economic rise, now faces economic setbacks. As of the end of June, “overall growth was weak and seemingly set on a downward trend,” writes the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Adam Posen, in Foreign Affairs.
“Wary foreign investors and cash-strapped local governments in China chose not to pick up on the initial momentum,” says Mr. Posen. “This reversal was more significant than a typical overly optimistic forecast missing the mark.”
Looking ahead, the White House is hoping that Mr. Biden can do as well as the 100-year-old Henry Kissinger, who in the 1970s pioneered the opening of relations with the Communist regime in Beijing. Mr. Kissinger recently visited Beijing, seeing Mr. Xi and China’s defense minister, Li Shangfu, who refused to see America’s defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, during the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore in June.
It was “unfortunate,” said the national security council spokesman, John Kirby, “that a private citizen can meet with the defense minister and have a communication and the United States can’t.”