Brazil’s Bolsonaro May be Down, But He Is Far From Out

Jair Bolsonaro may have lost the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections on Sunday, but the long shadow cast by the man once described as a “Tropical Trump” is unlikely to dim anytime soon. If the polls are accurate — and they were not during the first round; Bolsonaro did far better than many expected — Lula da Silva is likely to be Brazil’s next president, again, after a runoff scheduled for October 30.Mr Bolsonaro fared better than his opponent in Brazil’s largest states, and his party will enjoy a congressional majority. The incumbent was also endorsed by the governors of Brazil’s three largest states. So if Mr. da Silva moves into the Palacio da Alvorada, he will have little flexibility to govern. Mr. Bolsonaro, through Congress and the most populated states, will remain the symbolic leader of the opposition, and will become Lula’s biggest obstacle during his term.Mr. da Silva, who was president between 2003 and 2010, led the results on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the votes. Mr. Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent, a tighter outcome than the polls had predicted.Since Sunday, both candidates have scrambled to line up allies for the runoff. While candidate Ciro Gomes backed Mr. da Silva, Mr. Bolsonaro received support from the governors of the three most populated states — São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. The country “must move forward,” and Mr. Bolsonaro is the right candidate for that, according to Minas Gerais’ governor, Romeu Zema. Mr. Zema also challenged the economic prosperity associated with Mr. da Silva’s first term, his main selling point, accusing the former president of “faking economic development.”São Paulo’s governor, Rodrigo Garcia, said his goal for the second round is to make sure that Mr. Bolsonaro is reelected and continues to govern Brazil. On Sunday, an ally of Mr. Bolsonaro took the lead in the race for governor of Brazil’s most populous state, São Paulo. His former infrastructure minister, Tarcisio Freitas, received the majority of votes in Sunday’s election, but will face a Lula ally, Fernando Haddad, in the runoff.Mr. Bolsonaro outperformed in the southeast region, which includes São Paulo, along with Rio de Janeiro and Mato Grosso. Mr. da Silva, on the other hand, dominated in the northeast states.“This is the greatest victory for patriots in the history of Brazil: 60% of the Brazilian territory will be governed by those who defend our values and fight for a freer nation,” Mr. Bolsonaro tweeted.A professor of international relations at the Federal University of San Pablo, Regiane Nitsch Bressan, told the Sun that if Mr. da Silva wins, he will have a harder time governing the states where Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies won.Mr. Bolsonaro’s Liberal party won 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the largest number since 1998. Mr. Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies now control half of the chamber. Mr. Lula’s Brazil of Hope Federation, a coalition formed by the Workers party and other left-wing allies, won 80. In the senate, Mr. Bolsonaro has 13 seats, as opposed to Mr. da Silva’s nine.On Monday, Mr. Bolsonaro said on Twitter that winning a majority of seats in Congress was the party’s “main priority.” Critics say that Mr. da Silva’s campaign has focused more on his past successes than on the future, and that the candidate has been constantly reminding people of how “happy” they were during his presidency.“Congress will be complicated for Lula,” Ms. Nitsch Bressan said. “The other parties in Congress are more conservative, so he will not have the same platform he had in his last presidency.” In addition, the authority of Brazil’s Congress has grown since Mr. da Silva was president. Since impeaching a former president, Dilma Rousseff, in 2016, Congress has limited the public expense budget and has blocked big parts of Mr. Bolsonaro’s agenda.If Mr. da Silva wins the runoff, he will need to readjust his leftist agenda as president, or risk alienating larger swaths of the country than he previously thought existed. A political science professor of the Brazilian Federal University of Santa Catarina, Tiago Borges, said that if elected, Mr. da Silva will have to build an “ideologically heterogeneous coalition,” as he will be facing a conservative Congress, “which will force him to negotiate certain agendas.”

Brazil’s Bolsonaro May be Down, But He Is Far From Out

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