Brexit Diary: With Electoral Oblivion Glinting, Can Britain’s Conservative Government Save Itself From the Gallows?

“Depend upon it, Sir,” Johnson asserted to Boswell, “when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” How about in a twelvemonth? Does the Conservative mind concentrate at the thought of electoral evisceration at the next general election?A worst-case scenario whispered in the hall of Westminster is that the Tories will be reduced to a mere 103 seats (some polls suggest 90 or less) in the House of Commons, with an incoming Labor Government winning 478 seats, and enjoying an overall majority over its rivals of 306 — 46 percent to 26 percent, according to the latest Daily Express survey. Cast out into the darkness of electoral oblivion is a nightmare to any career politician.Former minister Dame Priti Patel let drop last week that Conservatives colleagues are asking her assistance in lining up job opportunities once the electoral axe finally drops. With her previous experience in the private sector, MPs credit her with knowledge of the outside world outside Parliament.“I think that is wrong,” Dame Priti responded. “I believe politics is about public service and putting your country first.” She is to be credited in her own right, reprimanding her backbench for their failure to put their current jobs top of mind, in representing the interests of the British people who elected them.Incidentally, it also underscores the benefits of holding outside careers, apart from seeking preferment from the political process — the usual ladder starting with an Oxbridge degree in PPE, or philosophy, politics, and economics, landing a role as an MP’s assistant, then running for office.Dame Priti, a co-founder of the grassroots Conservative Democratic Organization, alluded to the failures of the party’s current structure. There has been “too much centralization,” she says. Conservative Party members want a “fair right and proper say in terms of the selection of their candidates who want to be MPs . . . people who are interested in public service and politics” and not “who think that being an MP is another stepping stone in their career.”Careerism will plague the Conservative Party as it enters the election cycle, and for years to come. No party is immune, but the governing Tories will be particularly punished for their collusion and lack of backbone against the prevailing zeitgeist. Privileging “party” stalwarts over candidates with “standing” in their communities is connected to the vice of voting for the party, not the individual — and one reason why proportional representation has such an appeal, especially for parties struggling to enter parliament. Better thinking must supplant this bad idea if the political process is to be reformed.Regardless, faint-of-heart Conservatives may take some courage from another recent poll. According to the Guido Fawkes website, the gap between the two main political parties has narrowed to 15 points. The site also notes that this survey shows the Tories gaining on its rival by 5 points. Sir Keir Starmer, it seems, is facing troubles of his own. As the prospect of electoral office looms, the Labor chief has been trimming his message to the center ground. More than 10,000 rank-and-file are said to have allowed their memberships to lapse, with local leaders resigning from their posts. These are hardly Tory votes for the taking, and these disgruntled grassroot reds will doubtless fall in line when the writs are dropped. Still, it signals a disunited opposition and Conservatives will seek solace where they can.As in the surprising victory in Boris Johnson’s former seat in Uxbridge and Ruislip. An outer borough from the London metropolis, constituents voted Conservative (though barely) to register their outrage against the growing net of London’s mayor imposing £12.50 fees to enter the city — the much despised ultra-low emission zone against older “polluting” automobiles. Seeing which way the wind blows, the Tory Government has also begun to trim its sails: in their case, backtracking on climate change laws that are clear electoral losers, as they target Conservative core supporters.Prime Minister Sunak announced that 100 drilling licenses were signed for exploratory drilling in the North Sea. Other Tory MPs are calling for a rethink on other Net Zero policies, with none other than the “Leveling Up” minister, Michael Gove, critical of “treating the cause of the environment as a religious crusade.”Add to this the growing consensus that banks have exceeded their remit in denying personal and business accounts to people of whose views they disapprove. Nigel Farage, hero of Brexit and himself a target, has now taken on the challenge of debanking, setting up a ginger group to counter the scourge at “AccountClosed.org.”Mr. Farage lets it be known that upwards of “1,000 bank accounts a day are being closed,” with all-and-sundry being targeted: cabinet ministers, Remainers, small business owners (who deal primarily in cash transactions), critics of woke culture, even foreign embassies. The underlying rationale for the thrust of debanking remains unclear — doubtless with roots in the wokish Environmental, Social, and Governance movement — but it could be the pivotal question at the next election.Conservatives thus have the benefit of much public discontent upon which to concentrate, if they want to stave off electoral disaster. Voters may be vehemently vocal that the Tories are at the root of their problems but, with Labor only promising more of the same — and how — a quick-thinking Government can still save itself from the gallows.BrexitDiarist@gmail.com

Brexit Diary: With Electoral Oblivion Glinting, Can Britain’s Conservative Government Save Itself From the Gallows?

Brexit Diary: With Electoral Oblivion Glinting, Can Britain’s Conservative Government Save Itself From the Gallows?

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