A longtime Wall Street pipe dream — that year-in, year-out forecast for the past decade of $1,000 for an ounce of gold — may finally be nearing reality.

So far, it has been a fool’s gold prediction, although the precious metal in recent years has been shining brightly, climbing to $438.45 at the close of 2004, and to $636.70 at the end of last year, from $348 an ounce at year-end 2002.

That increase was extended Friday as gold futures surged to a 27-year high, with gold for December delivery ballooning $10.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $750.

“A myth no more,” a London money-manager, Raymond Stahler of Stahler Dearborn Ltd., says in addressing himself to the prospects of $1,000 for an ounce of gold. Pointing to any number of risks he believes could turn catastrophic — such as a further deterioration in the dollar, Chinese diversification out of the greenback, a significant financial accident related to subprime mortgages or derivatives, or any new military conflicts in the Middle East resulting in American involvement — Mr. Stahler thinks a $1,000 price tag is a distinct possibility over the next 12 to 18 months.

“The days of ridiculing such a forecast should soon pass,” he says, “because it clearly looks like we’re on the way there. Take a realistic look at what’s going on and it’s no longer a question of whether we’ll see $1,000 gold, but when.”

A precious metals expert at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Sean Brodrick, agrees. He cautions, though, that gold could run into some roadblocks before it reaches that exalted $1,000 mark, given its big run since the end of 2005 (a 23% gain last year and roughly another 15% hike this year). Still, he believes the pieces are in place for $1,000 gold in two years and perhaps a good deal sooner.

Based on fundamental factors and a recent technical analysis, Mr. Brodrick has set new and higher gold price targets: $780 by year-end, $810 in the first quarter of 2008, and about $872 by the end of 2008.

Laying out his rationale for $1,000 gold, he cites, in particular:

• The China syndrome: China has very little in the way of gold reserves, and most of its $1.34 trillion in currency reserves are in our Treasury bonds. The country has already announced plans to diversify its reserves out of the dollar, but China might accelerate that program, given the plummeting greenback.

• Ben Bernanke’s boo-boo: Mr. Brodrick thinks the Federal Reserve chief made a huge mistake when it recently cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. This was supposedly done to protect the economy against a recession, but the cut, he argues, was really a bailout for big funds that had made bad bets in mortgage and corporate debt. In turn, he believes, this is causing investors to lose faith in the once mighty greenback.

• Huge federal deficit of nearly $9 trillion and counting: America, he says, is living on borrowed cash, and Washington’s Good-Time Charlies are keeping the printing presses busy to pay the bills, which is a harbinger of even higher inflation, a major gold catalyst and an ongoing Fed worry.

It all suggests to Mr. Brodrick that the downward spiral in the dollar will continue, leading to a further upward swing in the price of gold.

Another key factor behind his golden outlook for gold is his expectation that many central banks, which have generally been sellers of the precious metal in recent years, will shift gears and begin accumulating more of it at the expense of American Treasury securities. He also thinks OPEC could reprice its oil in euros, versus the dollar. “We could see a big game change in gold,” he says.

The underlying wealth effect in such exploding economies as China and India is viewed as another significant plus, with Mr. Brodrick noting that increasingly wealthier citizens in both countries are displaying a growing and cultural affinity for gold.

Many gold bulls invariably point to a shrinking mine supply, which last year hit a 10-year low. The world’s two largest gold producers, Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, confirm this trend. Barrick recently said it expects a 10% to 15% decline in global mine production over the next five to seven years, while Newmont disclosed problems replacing its depleting reserves.

Clearly, increasing numbers of investors are turning to gold. Indicative of this, aside from the rising price, is the $13.2 billion of inflows that poured over the past two weeks into a giant exchange-traded gold fund, StreetTRACKS Gold Trust.

The best ways to play gold? Mr. Brodrick’s top pick is a Canadian gold miner with interests in America and Mexico, Goldcorp. He thinks the stock could appreciate about 60% over the next 12 months. He also favors StreetTRACKS Gold Trust, Market Vectors ETF Trust, and a couple of small Canadian miners, Aurizon Mines and Jaguar Mining.

The bottom line: The market is on hold for $1,000 gold, and loads of signs suggest it may finally get there.