A $100,000 Bet Clinton, McCain Will Fail in 2008

On Wall Street, seemingly crazy wagers are made every day. This is a story of a $100,000 bet — on politics, not the stock market — that seems to defy all the odds.Most readers probably know the names of the top presidential contenders for 2008. Would that list include actor Clint Eastwood, first lady Laura Bush, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, and television host Bill O’Reilly?If you’re about to say that’s insane, I’m with you. Nonetheless, all four are included on a list of 69 candidates on whom, via your credit card, you can place an offshore bet for the 2008 presidential race.A leading offshore bookmaker that is the largest sports book and casino on the planet, Sportsbook.com, compiled the list. Headquartered in Costa Rica, it also offers political wagers.The $100,000 bet, made on Thanksgiving Day, was placed by a veteran specialist on the New York Stock Exchange who boasts an estimated net worth of about $1.4 billion.The specialist, basically a market maker in Big Board stocks and a fellow who loves to bet on political outcomes, wagered his $100,000 that neither Senator Clinton nor Senator McCain, who are widely regarded as the Democratic and Republican front-runners in the presidential sweepstakes, would receive their party’s nomination to head the 2008 ticket.On the other side of the bet are two hedge fund managers, one semiretired, who put up $70,000 each. The specialist, who got odds of 7 to 5, is anteing up $100,000 to win $140,000.Even if both senators decide to pull out of the race, the specialist still wins the bet. Of course, if either one gets the nomination, he loses.The specialist, who noted that betting on the election is illegal in America and said he was anxious to avoid any IRS problems, spoke on the promise that he wouldn’t be identified.Why bet against the front-runners in the polls? He reasons that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain each carry baggage, and that many things could happen over the next two years — such as a recession or the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq — that could dramatically alter the political climate.The specialist tells me he also made a separate $10,000 bet with an official of a leading drug company in the tristate area that Senator Obama would be the Democrats’ presidential nominee. He got odds of 10 to 1.”I know he’s a political novice, but he reminds me of John F. Kennedy in his early stages, and I think he’s got a good shot,” he said.At Sportsbook.com, bettors place specific wagers on whom they think will be the next American president. Mrs. Clinton is the clear favorite in both parties at 3 to 1 (meaning you put up $1 to win $3, for a total return of $4). Mr. McCain is the runner-up at 6 to 1, while Vice President Gore follows at 9 to 2 (you bet $2 to win $9, for a total return of $11).Included among the names pegged at 10 to 1 are Mr. Obama, Mayor Giuliani, and Governor Romney. Senator Edwards is quoted at 15 to 1; Secretary of State Powell, 25 to 1; Rep. Newt Gingrich, 40 to 1; Senator Kerry and Governor Pataki, 50 to 1, Secretary of State Rice, 60 to 1; General Wesley Clark, Vice President Cheney, and Senator Dean, 75 to 1; Governor Bush and Ralph Nader, 100 to 1; Mayor Bloomberg, 150 to 1, and General Tommy Franks, 200 to 1.Among the offbeat candidates, Messrs. Eastwood and O’Reilly are quoted at 750 to 1; Mrs. Bush and Governor Ventura at 1,000 to 1; Mr. Rumsfeld, 2,000 to 1; Donald Trump, 2,500 to 1, and Michael Moore, the longest shot, at 7,500 to 1.Sportsbook.com could not be reached for comment, but it told one offshore investment manager it stands by its list as a legitimate compilation of the most likely presidential possibilities.A University of Virginia professor of politics, Larry Sabato, describes the 2008 presidential race as a free-for-all. “Since there’s no incumbent president or vice president running, there are no crown princes,” he says, “though some are pretending to be, mainly Rudy, Hillary, and McCain. The polls show they’re the favorites, but I don’t buy it because all three have deep flaws.“In Hillary’s case,” he says, “it’s her personality and the history of the Clintons; Rudy is a social liberal who really doesn’t really fit the standards of the Republican Party, and Mr. McCain, a maverick, has a temper and his age works against him.” He’s 70 and would be the oldest first-term sitting president if he won.Mr. Sabato says he wouldn’t minimize Mr. Obama’s shot at the Democratic presidential nomination. “He could be the Hillary killer,” he says.About 10 million Americans currently place offshore bets, according to a Las Vegas business weekly newspaper, Gaming Today. Besides sports, growing numbers of bets are taking place on elections, the Academy Awards, and top music awards. Last year, for example, such American offshore bets totaled $6 billion; next year, the estimate is $10 billion.dandordan@aol.com

A $100,000 Bet Clinton, McCain Will Fail in 2008

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