13 Stocks You May Want To Avoid

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

If you own any of these stocks, dump them! That’s the word from a team of Standard & Poor’s analysts, which has just issued a list of stocks it believes should be shunned at current prices. The 13 companies, all deemed bad for your financial health, include such nationally known names as Sony, Martha Stewart Living, Callaway Golf, Goodyear Tire, and Tommy Hilfiger. Not only are these stocks – call them the dogs of the S&P – expected to trail the market over the next 12 months, S&P believes them to be substantially overvalued and therefore vulnerable to sharp declines.


For risk takers, one veteran S&P analyst rates many of the names on the list as attractive short sales (a bet the stock prices will go down).


Here’s a rundown of the stocks and some brief thoughts on why the investment advisory service thinks they’re all about as inviting as the plague.


SONY S&P expects weak profits in the company’s electronics and movie businesses, and believes several factors will weigh on the electronics units, including continued price pressures in digital consumer products and heavy research and development spending on next-generation chips. As such, significant losses are likely in the semiconductor business.


TOMMY HILFIGER The appeal of the apparel designer’s product lines has diminished as specialty stores have introduced similarly styled clothing at lower prices. Another concern is a federal investigation into commissions paid to a foreign subsidiary.


JANUS CAPITAL This mutual fund company has major worries, including net redemptions, increasing compensation costs, turnover of investment personnel, and corporate governance issues. These problems should persist throughout 2005 and into 2006, and although the shares are down about 20% this year, they are significantly overvalued.


CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS Fundamentals remain weak in the company’s core radio business, and this weakness is underscored by lingering uncertainties about a strategy that reduces both the number of spot breaks and the length of commercials. S&P is also lukewarm on a pending realignment to separate the noncore outdoor advertising and entertainment operations.


GOODYEAR TIRE Liquidity challenges from debt and employee retirement obligations are matters of long term concern. A $350 million convertible-debt offering could help liquidity, but it would greatly dilute shareholder value.


MARTHA STEWART LIVING Given S&P’s bleak outlook, this is one of those names thought to be substantially and unsustainably overvalued. Based on its discounted cash-flow analysis, S&P expects a hefty drop in the price of the stock. Its target is $17, a decline of nearly 35% from its current price of $25.80.


FOOT LOCKER The athletic footwear retailer faces growing competition, and pricing is becoming a more important factor. Its American division lost market share last year, which has left it in a weaker position than other companies in its sector.


CALLAWAY GOLF First-quarter sales dropped 18%, with American sales falling 15% and international sales down 21% (despite a $5 million gain from a weaker dollar). Overall sales should decline 5.7% this year and the company appears to have been unable to firm up its pricing after significant discounting.


NEWELL RUBBERMAID The house wares manufacturer recently cut its 2005 sales expectations, mainly because of its plan to eliminate a number of low-margin products and raise prices on selected product lines. The recent decline in sales volume underscores the price sensitivity of consumers and retailers, and to some degree the company’s lack of meaningful product differentiation.


BOSTON PROPERTIES Vacancy rates in some of this office real estate investment trust’s core markets are substantially higher than the national average. In addition, average rental rates for new leases have dropped below the level of in-place leases in most of the company’s markets. These factors should put increasing pressure on revenues.


CMS ENERGY This gas and electric utility holding company, which suspended its dividend in 2003, could stumble on weak 2005 earnings, in part because of dilution from recent share issuances. The stock will also be restrained by the company’s below investment-grade credit rating and relatively high financing costs.


CNET NETWORKS Of concern is this Internet company’s exposure to the economically sensitive technology sector and the increasing competition it is facing for online traffic from other Web sites, such as comparison shopping services. Also, the company’s balance sheet has more debt on it than cash and investments.


INSITUFORM The outlook in the company’s main market, sewer and water pipe rehabilitation, is uncertain, and raw material costs remain volatile. Further, free cash flow will be limited by investments in working capital and fixed assets. What’s more, S&P says its discounted cash-flow analyses show the stock is substantially overvalued.


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