Call it the market that won’t quit, one that looks like Lance Armstrong, Roger Federer, and Laila Ali all wrapped up in one.

Even the bears have to admit the market has held up remarkably well in the face of Hurricane Katrina, $70 a barrel oil, spiraling prices at the gas pump, new political concerns in Iraq, and renewed hedge fund worries sparked by the apparent disappearance of more than $400 million at the Connecticut-based hedge fund Bayou Group.

“It’s like the market is saying, ‘Bad news be damned,’ ” one Morgan Stanley trader says.

Maybe so, but one West Coast money manager and Fed watcher believes the market’s strength may be short-lived, given a scenario he sees unfolding at Alan Greenspan & Company.

In brief, in a little more than two weeks, September 20 to be precise, the Federal Reserve – assuming it adheres to the widely anticipated script – will hike the federal funds rate for the 11th time in the past 15 months. An increase of 25 basis points is thought to be a foregone conclusion, which would lift the rate to 3.75%.

This overriding expectation may indeed be on target, but beyond that, there could be a shocker of sorts, a decidedly contrary scenario from Wall Street’s consensus view, which, by and large, has been dead wrong this year in its rate projections. If our contrarian view is right, it could be bum tidings for the stock market late this year and in early 2006 as well.

Our contrarian is money manager Leonard Mohr of Los Angeles-based MCR Associates (assets: $82 million). He in effect takes decided issue with the overwhelming view that the federal funds rate will wrap up the year at 4% to 4.25%, then maybe hit 5% in the first quarter of 2006, after which the Fed is widely expected to take a siesta.

In contrast, Mr. Mohr, who has been right on the money this year with his prognosis that rates will climb higher than generally expected, looks for the federal funds rate to finish 2005 at the 5% to 5.25% level and reach 6% to 6.25% in the first quarter. After that, he said, “We’ll have to wait and see what the economic and inflation numbers show.”

He acknowledges that some friends think he’s balmy but asked, “With both the economy and inflation heating up, and oil likely to remain high throughout the first half of the new year, why would anyone think the Fed will ease up on its tightening anytime soon?”

“The answer,” he said, “is it won’t.” Pointing to the broadly held view that the Fed is in its ninth inning of tightening, Mr. Mohr said “the sixth inning is more realistic.” In any event, he brands the consensus view of a 4% to 4.25% projected rate wrap-up this year as “an absurdly low look-ahead.”

His outlook for higher-than-expected rates is a key reason, he believes, why a heavy dose of caution is called for before any new stock commitments are made.

But wait, couldn’t the economic damage wrought by Katrina prompt the Fed to take a more cautious stance in its credit-tightening? Mr. Mohr doesn’t think so, given generally broad-based economic vigor, the inflationary effects of ballooning energy and home prices, and his belief the effects of Katrina will be temporary.

Whether Mr. Mohr is right in his assumptions remains to be seen, but clearly, the consensus thinking on rates, given how consistently wrong it has been, has to be suspect. For example, at the start of the year, the consensus view called for 2005 to wrap up with a federal funds rate of 3% to 3.25%. A few months later, though, the consensus boosted the number to 3.5%. That held for about a month or so until the consensus forecast rose again to 3.75% before shortly thereafter switching to the current 4% to 4.25%.

The managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, Lakshman Achuthan, views Mr. Mohr’s forecasts as “a little rich,” but does note the American economy is pretty resilient and should remain that way through early next year. If, on top of that, he said, there’s a strong, synchronized global upturn of the world economies, notably in Europe and Asia, that would soak up global overcapacity and push the Consumer Price Index higher, he believes the Fed would act accordingly. In that event, he thought Mr. Mohr’s outlook could become a reality.

The well-regarded British economist J.C. Spender of London’s Cranford Business School also hoists cautionary flags on the rate front. Taking note of Mr. Greenspan’s recent hawkish comments about rising asset prices, notably housing, Mr. Spender believes the Fed chief’s concern raises serious questions about the widespread notion that Fed tightening may be nearing an end. “We may in fact be getting a signal that interest rates could rise considerably more than any of us expects,” he said.