American Economy Stronger Than Believed in Second Quarter of 2004

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The New York Sun

The American economy slowed in the spring, but growth was stronger than previously thought as sales overseas rose and businesses boosted inventories.


Gross domestic product rose 3.3% in April through June, higher than the previously estimated 2.8% increase, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.


Behind the larger-than-expected revision was a boost in government estimates for exports and inventory investment. The elevated GDP figure for the second quarter meant the economy’s slowdown was less sharp than the first quarter’s 4.5% pace.


Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, called the revision to GDP significant.


“In our view, this makes a big difference to the macro picture, as it turns out that the second quarter – i.e., the “soft patch” period – grew at only slightly below potential, rather than significantly below,” he said in a prepared analysis.


Wall Street expected a weaker projection. A Dow Jones-CNBC survey of 21 economists had forecast a revised growth figure of 3.0%.


“The second-quarter economy was a little stronger than we thought,” said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s. “We really had a pretty good first half, and there was decent momentum going into the third quarter.”


The fresh government data showed spending by consumers rose at a 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate. Spending grew 4.1% in the first quarter.


Business spending advanced 12.5%, revised up from a previously estimated 12.1% increase. Overall business spending rose 4.2% in the first quarter.


Businesses pushed up inventories by $61.1 billion, revised up from an earlier estimated $57.7 billion increase. The change in inventories added 0.78 of a percentage point to GDP growth.


The second-quarter boost in stockpiles was higher than the increases of $40.0 billion in the first quarter and $8.6 billion in the fourth.


“Part of that is the fact that the expansion is continuing and solidifying, which probably gives some businesses more confidence in the outlook,” said an economist with A.G. Edwards in St. Louis, Patrick Fearon. “It may also reflect that with prices rising, there may be some desire to hedge against future price increases.”


The GDP report showed exports were revised up in the second quarter and imports were lowered. Exports increased 7.3% for a second consecutive quarter. Imports advanced 12.6%, after rising 10.6% in the first quarter. Commerce previously reported exports rose 6.1% and imports went up 14.1% in the second quarter.


After-tax corporate profits were revised to show a 0.7% decrease to $902.7 billion. Profits were earlier seen as dropping 1.2%. Profits rose 3.7% in the first quarter. Year over year, second quarter profits were up 18.5% from the same period 12 months earlier.


There was little, if any, changes to yardsticks measuring inflation. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose at an unrevised 3.5% rate. The index had advanced 3.4% in the first quarter.


Another gauge, the government’s price index for personal consumption, went up at a 3.1% rate; the previous estimate for the second quarter was an increase of 3.2%. The PCE index had climbed 3.3% in the first quarter. The chain-weighted price index rose at a 3.2% rate, unchanged from the previous estimate. That gauge rose 2.8% in the first quarter.


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