Every January, forecasters project, with much anxiety, economic growth for the year. This year’s forecasts for gross domestic product appear slightly weaker than those for last year, estimated at between 3.5% and 3.7%. While a few pessimists worry that inverted yield curves on government bonds signal a recession, the real worry should be about how to get our economy growing at 6% annually.

Since the end of World War II, real economic activity in America has grown at a remarkably constant rate of between 0% and 7% annually, with a few slower years of contraction. But there has been a remarkable change in the economic growth pattern over the past generation.

In the 30 years between 1950 and 1979, America had annual growth rates of more than 5% on 12 occasions, or a 40% likelihood. In the 25 years since 1979, we have had growth in excess of 5% just once, or only a 4% likelihood.

Up until the 1970s, the nation was still plausibly a high-growth country. It’s true that we were the wealthiest nation with the highest per capita income. But we also grew more rapidly than much of the rest of the world. Not any more.

Since 1980, real American economic growth rates have clustered between 2% and 5% annually, with a few brief bouts of recessionary contractions. Predictable mediocrity is good for economic forecasters but not for the economy. An economy growing at 3% annually takes 24 years to double in size; one growing at 6% annually only takes 12 years. Our economy today is twice its size of 1983. China is twice its size of 1998.

The “good old days” of the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s were not inherently good. We were a nation locked in the Cold War. We were distracted by the Vietnam War, the civil rights movement, and other social concerns. Despite relatively little immigration and only a small international sector, we grew rapidly.

Today, we congratulate ourselves if our economy grows at 3.5%. We call it a “good” year. Our economy looks good only when compared to the more anemic economies of Europe and Japan. Parts of our economy – the wrong parts – are growing at double-digit rates. New government programs for Medicare, Medicaid, and other forms of health care have exploded, not merely crowding out private initiatives. Once vibrant economic sectors languish today.

While our expectation of more rapid economic growth has vanished, the possibility for it has not. China has grown at nearly double-digit rates for more than a decade. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and other Asian countries are growing twice as fast as we are. These countries have fewer natural resources and smaller, poorer economies. In a theoretical world in which all countries have equal economic capabilities, these countries should grow more rapidly than America until they begin to catch up with us.

Our world is not purely theoretical, and all regions do not have equal economic capabilities. The countries growing rapidly today do so despite, not because of, their hardships. In contrast, much of the world’s financial capital, intellectual capital, and intellectual property is in America. These and other American resources are scarce and difficult to replicate. They should today, as they did a generation ago, command a premium in a growing world economy. We can and should be a high growth country as well as the world’s wealthiest economy.

Even forecasting economic growth within the anemic range between 2% and 5% is a difficult art. In October, the Congressional Budget Office released a study reviewing the accuracy of its two-year economic forecasts, those of the Office of Management and Budget, and the index of economic forecasts provided by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The average size of forecast errors was between 0.6 and 0.8 – not much better than always picking an average of say 3%. Imagine how inaccurate economic forecasting would be if our economy more regularly grew in the 6% to 9% range.

Economies grow rapidly because individuals decide to work hard despite government shortcomings. Our real challenge is not how to measure that growth but how to permit it to happen.

A former FCC commissioner, Mr. Furchtgott-Roth is president of Furchtgott-Roth Economic Enterprises. He can be reached at hfr@furchtgott-roth.com.