The city’s residential real-estate market is strong and shows no signs of letting up, based on a fourth-quarter review by one of the city’s top independent analysts, as well as the assessments of top brokerage firms.

In what is generally the weakest quarter of the year for price and number of sales, the average sales price of a Manhattan cooperative and condominium apartments in the fourth quarter was $1,041,430, a 15.3% increase from the year prior, a real-estate appraiser, Jonathan Miller, said in a report to be released today. He is the founder and president of the firm Miller Samuel.

Record-low inventory is another indicator of market robustness. Mr. Miller reported 3,922 exclusive listings in the fourth quarter, the lowest number since he began tracking inventory in 2000, and a 19% drop compared to the last quarter of the previous year.

Negotiability was limited and buyers were serious in the fourth quarter, the data suggest. Listings were on the market for an average of 95 days, compared to an average of 133 days in the fourth quarter of 2003, Mr. Miller reported.

“In the bigger picture the numbers mean that there is a strong demand to purchase and own Manhattan real estate,” Mr. Miller said. “For whatever reason – quality of life, employment opportunities – people want to be in New York. Barring some significant change, that doesn’t seem to be going away.”

The volatility of the stock market and the increased availability of condominiums, which have more relaxed purchase requirements, have also made real estate a popular investment vehicle.

The chief executive of the Corcoran Group, Pamela Liebman, said the realty company has a listing under contract for 30% more than what the seller paid less than a year ago.

The president of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dorothy Herman, said: “I’ve seen a lot of investors in the market, as well as people who, rather than putting their money in the stock market, are buying second and third homes.”

Who else is buying?

“Anybody who can be a buyer is buying. No one wants to be the last person at the table who rents,” Ms. Liebman said. Her firm released its year-end numbers Friday, based on its own sales history and publicly available sales data for condominiums.

Young buyers are borrowing money from their families. Parents are buying two apartments: one for themselves, and one for the child right out of college, the Corcoran chief executive said. Empty-nesters from nearby suburbs and across the country are buying pied-a-terres. Young families who don’t want to leave the city are buying two- and three-bedroom apartments. Europeans taking advantage of the weak dollar are drawn to luxury developments, such as One Beacon Court and Trump Park Avenue. Townhouses, too, are popular.

The traditional seasonality of the market, with fall and spring the strongest times, is disappearing. “In the past few years, we’ve found that real estate is no longer taking a holiday – we’re busy summers and busy during holiday seasons,” Ms. Liebman said.

The president of the small firm Dwelling Quest, Daren Hornig, said his Web site traffic was up 50% in December. “People on holiday have more time to look,” he said.

Though many of her clients were on vacation last week, a broker at Brown, Harris, Stevens, Diane Abrams, stayed in touch with clients by cell phone and e-mail.

Because of the tight supply and high prices in Manhattan, the outer boroughs, as well as areas such as Harlem and Inwood, are seeing increased sales activity.

Ms. Liebman pointed to Fort Greene in Brooklyn as an example. Prices for two-bedroom co-ops there increased 53%, to $457,000 from $298,000, according to the Corcoran Report.

Even in neighborhoods that have been on the radar for several years, numbers continued to rise. At Cobble Hill, the average sales price of a condominium in 2004 increased 46% from the year before. At Park Slope, it was up 43%.

Brokerages have been opening new offices and acquiring boutique firms in these new areas. Corcoran is opening an office in Harlem, Ms. Liebman said, has expanded its Brooklyn offices, and is planning to expand further. Brown, Harris, Stevens has expanded to seven offices from three this year, said its president, Hall Wilkie, including the purchase of the William B. May offices in Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights. Dwelling Quest is opening additional Manhattan offices, Mr. Hornig said.

The rental market, too, remains tight. Vacancy rates are low – the firm Citi Habitats said in its end-of-the-year report that the vacancy rate is at 1.5%, down from 3% last year. And the number of new developments offering incentives to renters is down to 150 from 500 last year, according to a database of 1,350 buildings the company tracks.

The president of Citi Habitats, Andrew Heiberger, said 20% of his customers are buying instead of renting when their lease is up, versus 5% two years ago.

Nevertheless, renters are facing smaller increases on a year-to-year basis than buyers. Citi Habitats’ analysis shows the average rental price of a studio in 2004 was $1,651, up 3% from last year’s rate of $1,595.

While record-setting purchases made headlines last year, most of the action was at the lower end of the market. Mr. Miller reported that 70% of apartments sold in the past two quarters were priced at under $1 million.

A breakdown of sales by dollar volume also gives hope to buyers on a budget: 37% of the total amount spent was on apartments under $1 million, 48% in the $1-million-to-$4-million range, and just 15% on apartments that sold for $4 million or more.

Ms. Liebman said she thinks developers will start building more studio condominiums in reach of the first time buyer.

“Are the prices high?” Ms. Herman of Prudential said. “Yes. Would someone from the Midwest start to cry? I’ve seen grown men with tears in their eyes. You do buy a box here. But if you want to be here, that’s the game, and people are playing it.”

Mr. Miller, who heads the appraisal firm, struck an agreement with Douglas Elliman 10 years ago to publish his quarterly reports as the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview. He receives no compensation from the brokerage and draws on a variety of data sources, including Prudential Douglas Elliman’s database, to compile the report. It covers co-op and condominium sales in Manhattan up to 116th Street on the West Side and up to 96th Street on the East Side. Mr. Miller said he is investigating expansion into new, hot markets such as Harlem and Brooklyn, but can do so only when the sample of sales data is large enough for a fair analysis.

Taking into account higher bonuses on Wall Street, increased consumer confidence, and the weak dollar, Mr. Miller predicted that the first quarter of 2005 may bring new price records.