The memory is so fresh, it’s as though I received the e-mail yesterday. It was a scathing reaction to an interview I did a year ago with the global economist Nouriel Roubini, a darling of the bearish crowd whom some in the economic fraternity call “Dr. Doom.” “We could move into a recession in the next few months,” he told me.

In response, one of his economic brethren lambasted me, writing: “You demean your column and look like a fool when you quote such an economic buffoon. A recession in a few months is as likely as the end of the world.”

Mr. Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University, turned out to be dead wrong, but it may be that he was simply premature, what with the frightening R-word now popping up with growing frequency. Rather than just a few isolated voices predicting a recession, a chorus of such warnings has appeared on Wall Street.

Earlier this week, the chief investment strategist of Wachovia Securities, Rod Smyth, tossed in his two cents on the subject, warning clients that recent job weakness, evident in August, will add to the housing industry’s woes and raises the chance of a recession to 50%.

A veteran investment adviser and editor of the Growth Stock Outlook newsletter in Bethesda, Md., Charles Allmon, contends that a number of pivotal industries — housing, autos, and select financial sectors — are already in a recession.

“It’s only a matter of time before the rest of corporate America catches up,” he said. “No one has officially sounded the recession bell yet, but you don’t need a hearing aid because it’s ringing pretty loudly.”

Invariably, recession forecasters cite the housing slowdown as the chief culprit. So what’s next for housing, especially in light of President Bush’s recently announced plan to help bail out the floundering industry by making Federal Housing Administration mortgages more attractive and available to homeowners having trouble with their payments?

One meaningful clue may have come earlier this week from Home Depot, whose store in the East Side of Manhattan has displayed the kind of activity you might expect in the city morgue. The company said they don’t envision any housing improvement until late next year.

As for the president’s plan to help revitalize housing, it’s hardly viewed as a cure-all, as it would help only about 80,000 borrowers , far short of the more than 2 million homeowners at risk.

One of the first pros to alert investors to an impending housing calamity — and who’s now also hoisting a recession flag — was an analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Michael Larson. Nothing on the immediate horizon, he told me the other day, will change the housing industry’s poor fundamentals: slowing sales, falling prices, bulging inventories, and tightening lending standards. He figures it could take years to get rid of the swelling inventories of single-family homes, which he notes are already off the charts at their current level of 4.59 million. That’s the highest in history and roughly double the normal number — between 2 million and 2.5 million — of houses on the market.

Further documenting his bleak housing outlook, Mr. Larson cites what he regards as some additional alarming statistics. In brief:

• Median home prices, as

measured by the National

Association of Realtors, have

dropped from year-earlier

levels for a record 12 months in

a row.

• Existing home sales have fallen

about 30% from their peak,

while new home sales have

declined by 37%.

Separately, he points out that Standard & Poor’s and Case-Shiller are reporting that home prices dropped 3.2% in the second quarter, the biggest such decline since they started collecting data in 1987.

Taking note of the surging number of foreclosures on top of all of this, Mr. Larson says you “no longer need a crystal ball to see that housing is in for a rough patch.” Factor in a slowing economy, falling job numbers, an erratic stock market, and slumping consumer confidence, he adds, and “we could come dangerously close to a recession.”

As such, he sees the possibility of a second leg down for the market, one that could send the Dow skidding another 600 or 700

points from current levels.

A related recession issue is the subprime mortgage mess. The bad debt number has been widely estimated at only about 3% of the $1.3 trillion worth of subprime, or less creditworthy, mortgages outstanding.

Money manager Leonard Mohr, a principal of Los Angeles-based MCR Associates, questions the 3% estimate. “Who knows if it’s only that?” he asks.

Pointing to the sizable number of q ues t i ona bl e subpr ime mortgages on lenders’ books and the substantial numbers of such loans that were bundled into mortgage securities and sold to the public, Mr. Mohr contends that no one really has a clue about how many more shoes might drop.

Meanwhile, come Wednesday, it’s considered a foregone conclusion the that Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds overnight lending rate, probably by 25 and maybe by 50 basis points. Whether that reduction, plus the likelihood of others to follow, makes recession fears nonsensical, as some suggest, remains to be seen.

dandordan@aol.com