Be Prepared: How To Get Ready for the Rally
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Just as Boy Scouts of America teaches preparation, investors also need to be prepared, because at some point the stock market’s agonizing wave of selling pressure precipitated by swelling credit concerns is bound to ease. When this will happen, of course, is a case for Lieutenant Columbo.
How to prepare? In other words, which stocks should you own in anticipation of an end to the market’s recent outburst of hurricane weather?
Several savvy stockpickers offer five possibilities, pegging their picks as companies that could gain 15% to 50% in value over next 12 months.
Let’s kick off with picks from Asian investment expert, Tony Sagami. I caught up with the Bigfork, Mont.-based editor of the Asian Stock Alert newsletter on April 18. In a column that day, Mr. Sagami picked four investments — three stocks and one exchange-traded fund. As of a week ago, they have shown an average gain of 31.9%.
In an update, he told me he continues tostrongly favor the world’s no. 1 economic grower, China, despite its giant stock gains in recent years. Its 2007 economic growth is pegged by the World Bank at a sizzling 11.9%, more than fourfold the expected American growth in gross domestic product of 2% to 2.5%. Here are his three top Chinese picks, all traded on American stock exchanges and each viewed as a potential 50% gainer over the next 12 months:
• Man Sang ($11.68), the world’s largest freshwater and cultured pearl company, which is selling less than 40 cents on the dollar to its underlying assets.
• New Oriental Education ($51.40), which has a monopoly on college entrant exam testing in China. It also teaches English, and tens of thousands of Chinese are looking to do just that.
• China Mobile ($54.33), the world’s largest cell phone provider. It has more cell phone users than the American population of 306 million.
Investment adviser Richard Moroney, who has picked a number of winners in this column, figures a giant maker of soft drinks and snack foods, PepsiCo, falls into this category, offering a prospective 15% to 20% gain over the next 12 months. The stock ($67.16) has held up admirably during the market’s recent slide, currently trading at just a shade below its alltime high of $70.25.
Noting that PepsiCo has posted impressive revenue and profit gains in recent quarters, Mr. Moroney, research director of the well-regarded Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter in Hammond, Ind., sees more of the same, spurred by the company’s strong growth internationally, its diverse product mix, and its brand strength. Consensus estimates call for 11% earnings growth in both 2007 and 2008.
Other pluses: the launching of healthier products, including low-sugar and low-fat versions of existing product lines; the acquisition in Ukraine, one of Europe’s fastest growing beverage markets, of 80% of juice maker Sandora, a $542 million deal on which it beat out rival Coca-Cola; an $8.5 billion buyback plan, with about $6 billion left to go, and a 25% hike in the annual dividend.
The Outlook, a weekly newsletter from Standard & Poor’s, hasn’t hit as many home runs as Barry Bonds, but it has surely slammed its fair share, especially in the energy sector. One of its newest pitches in this sector is Superior Energy Services ($38.66), which it thinks can appreciate about 30% over the next 12 months, to about $52.
Superior Energy, one of the foremost suppliers of production-related oil and gas equipment and services to the Gulf of Mexico and overseas, is clearly demonstrating superior sales growth. It racked up a 49% gain last year, generating revenues of $1.1 billion, and it recorded a 57% increase in the first half of 2007, to $760 million.
As producers of oil and natural gas face accelerating well decline rates, particularly in more mature regions as the Gulf of Mexico, it is noteworthy that demand for technological services that yield more enhanced production should continue to rise. Superior Energy is well positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Yet another enticement, the shares are trading at about 11.3 times S&P’s estimated 2007 earnings of $3.53 a share, well below the average p/e ratio of 16.5 for the oilfield services sector. Further, at six times this year’s estimated cash flow, the company is also trading at a discount to its peers.
The bottom line: Don’t forget the Boy Scout motto — get ready for the inevitable rally.