Bedding Stock Takes Wall Street by Storm

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The New York Sun

Rip Van Winkle would be duly proud — a bedding stock is taking Wall Street by storm.

The company is Sweden’s fastgrowing Tempur-Pedic International, the world’s fourth-largest mattress maker with annual sales of more than $900 million.

A tip on a mattress stock, a player in the generally slow-growth bedding industry, would normally be enough to put any investor to sleep, especially given the housing slump, which was re-enforced by last week’s announcement that new housing sales in January tumbled 16.6%, the worst monthly showing since 1994.

Given the housing worries, plus the company’s participation in an intensely competitive industry of such formidable rivals as Simmons, Serta, and Sealy, such a stock might well be viewed with skepticism.

For now at least, forget about all that with Tempur-Pedic. Traded on the Big Board, the stock — which is turning in the kind of performance investors dream about — has hardly been napping, having shot up 77% last year to $20.46 from a 2005 close of $11.50. It then tacked on another 35% gain this year, climbing to an all-time high last week of $27.73. It’s currently trading at $25.36.

The excitement surrounding Tempur-Pedic centers on its “memory foam” mattresses, as they’re called, which the company introduced in 1992 by reformulating foam that was designed by NASA in the 1970s to help cushion astronauts during liftoff. The material is used in both mattresses and pillows, which the company says relieve pressure and help provide a more comfortable, relaxing, and better night’s sleep.

The believers are many, as Tempur-Pedic’s products are now sold in more than 8,000 stores in 60 countries. The company’s mattresses, about 68% of revenue, are an alternative to innerspring mattresses, which typically sell for less than $1,000. By contrast, Tempur-Pedic mattresses retail at $1,299 for a double, $1,499 for a queen, and $1,899 for a king. The pillows, about 15% of revenue, typically go for $99.

The company also offers beds with memory foam mattresses in various widths, ranging from $999 to $2,600.

“The Street is mad about mattresses; that is, Tempur-Pedic mattresses,” a Los Angeles money manager and day trader, Arnold Silver, says. “The run in the stock is far from over, and I would definitely be a buyer.”

And buying is precisely what he’s doing right now for new accounts. Mr. Silver says strong demand for the company’s products, which he notes have great sales oomph and are being promoted heavily in infomercials and mailings, will continue to propel this stock upward. His price target: $30 to $35 over the next 12 to 18 months.

The stock also wins rave reviews from a veteran investment adviser, Richard Moroney, who likewise sees “more upside ahead” and a further run to around $35. Mr. Moroney, editor of Upside, a relatively unknown Hammond, Ind., newsletter focusing on small and midcap companies with a betterthan-average stock-picking record, describes Tempur-Pedic as one of the letter’s “best buys.”

In the past two quarters, the company has beaten the Street’s expectations. In its September quarter, excluding a year-earlier charge, it posted a 42% earnings jump on a 17% sales gain. And in its December quarter, it recorded a 20% increase in net profit on a 19% sales rise.

While Mr. Moroney expects profit growth to slow from the rapid pace of recent quarters, he says new products and market-share gains should enable the company to realize annual profit gains of 10% to 15% over the next three to five years on yearly sales increases of 7% to 8%.

His earnings outlook calls for $1.32 a share in 2006, up from $1.08 a year earlier, followed by $1.52 this year and $1.76 in 2008.

In November, speculation surfaced that Tempur-Pedic might be a takeover candidate. Given the company’s strong cash flow, its strong finances, its operating momentum, and its reasonable valuation — about 14 times year-ahead earnings — Mr. Moroney shares that view, although he thinks the company has considerable standalone appeal. On a buyout, he believes Tempur-Pedic, which is buying back some of its 80.3 million shares outstanding and recently initiated a dividend, could fetch about $30 a share, equivalent to about $2.5 billion, or more.

The company declined to comment on such a prospect, but on the business front, one marketing official told me: “Wall Street won’t have any sleepless nights because our numbers continue to be really strong.”

dandordan@aol.com


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