The Bell Signals It’s Time To Buy

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The New York Sun

Unfortunately, no one on Wall Street rings a bell when it’s time to buy or sell stocks.

Veteran strategist Bill Rhodes, one of the more thoughtful and perceptive investment minds around, figures that JPMorgan Chase & Co. may have rung a buying bell on March 16 when it announced it would buy the ailing Bear Stearns. He may be right, given a subsequent speedy but erratic 8.9% rise in the S&P 500 from its mid-March lows.

Mr. Rhodes, a former Merrill Lynch strategist who now is head of Boston-based Rhodes Analytics, which advises institutional investors, is hearing buying bells once again. For the first time in six months, he tells me, his models are signaling it’s a go for stocks. In fact, they are now the preferred asset class versus cash and bonds.

That’s a sharp reversal from his findings over the past six months, which have consistently shown that bonds, notably Treasury bonds, were the place to be.

His conclusion is based on a just-completed analysis of a broad brush of indicators, among them money supply, currencies, interest rates, monetary conditions, commodity prices, economics, exports, and political conditions here and abroad.

The message: “It’s time for investors to put their toe into the water, to start nibbling at selected stocks,” he says.

This advice contrasts with a growing outbreak of double-talk from market experts. On big up days, they broadly proclaim that the market is ready to run, but then on a hefty down day, they reverse themselves and hedge by outlining a number of reasons why the market will likely limp. It’s almost the equivalent of saying the market is going higher unless, of course, it is going lower. In effect, it’s really the fine art of saying nothing, almost senseless because it’s confusing and leaves investors in limbo.

There is no bewildering commentary or hemming or hawing, however, from Mr. Rhodes, who is by no means one of those romping bulls. To the contrary, he’s cautious and skeptical and views the market as “a mixed bag, with a lot to worry about and a lot of vulnerability.”

Still, he says, “if it were my portfolio, I’d get some stock exposure.” Why so? Because his models suggest the market will be higher, perhaps much higher, six months out.

On top of this, he points to a huge reservoir of liquidity on the sidelines — an astonishing $3.25 trillion of money-market mutual funds, 44% higher than last year and a figure equivalent to 25% of the size of the entire stock market. He figures that this big bundle of cash could trigger an explosive market rally once investors believe the worst is over. Or put another way, he says, “There’s enough fuel to suggest a bang-up market.”

Another major plus, he points out, is the Federal Reserve’s willingness to continue to supply more liquidity. “If you’re bearish, you’re fighting the Fed, and there’s an old market saying: ‘You don’t fight the Fed.'”

Yet another plus cited by Mr. Rhodes is a record short interest (a bet stock prices will fall). It could produce, he says, a very serious short squeeze (a situation in which rising stock prices would force short sellers to cover their short positions and push stock prices even higher).

What could spur such a short squeeze? Mr. Rhodes points to a meaningful easing of credit problems, the worst of which some major financial figures — such as the chief of JPMorgan, James Dimon ­– are saying is over, he notes. “I don’t know if they’re really over, but if you can get to the point where they’re manageable, you’ll have a huge bull market in stocks,” he says. That, he notes, is what the market is waiting for, “not a clean solution, but more or less a clear path showing we’re out of the sticky credit woods.”

By the same token, he’s not oblivious to the dangers. Chief among them, he says, is: Will financial institutions lend to each other again? “My sense is they’re not doing that now because they’re looking at their own internal impaired assets,” he says. “I think they’re asking themselves, ‘Am I plugging up someone else’s hole at the expense of not plugging up my own hole?'”

Yet other worries are his fear a recession is already under way, rising inflation, exceedingly low Treasury rates relative to other rates, such as CDs, and continued stress in the financial and credit markets.

Where would he put fresh money? An analysis of various market sectors, he says, indicates investors should favor energy, materials, and utilities. On the other hand, he’s down on the consumer discretionary, health care, and financial sectors.

The bottom line: Judging from Mr. Rhodes’s thinking, as far as the stock market goes, it’s time to get your feet wet because the bells are ringing.


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