With the election just four days away, everyone is attuned to the latest polls. I, too, have taken a poll – call it the Dorfman poll – to get a sense of how the election results might impact the stock market. I did it by soliciting the views of eight professionals, both here and overseas, and focused on several different scenarios – namely the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Significantly, some of those I surveyed expressed fear about a number of worrisome outcomes, such as a deadlocked election, court challenges, and a Democratic sweep of both the White House and the Senate, any of which, it’s felt, could play havoc with the market. Now the scenarios:

The good: There are two parts to this one. The first is if Wall Street’s favorite, the pro-business President Bush, wins – an outcome which money manager Selwyn Ortz of Hong Kong-based HK Investments Ltd., believes would spur a quick 2%-3% market gain a day or two immediately following the election. He also thinks such a result might lead to a return to rising stock prices since a major market uncertainty would be eliminated.

The good (part 2): The election produces a clear-cut winner, regardless of whom it might be. Standard & Poor’s chief economist, David Wyss, sees such an outcome as an important psychological plus because “the negative rhetoric would be gone and people could finally say it’s over.” He believes such an event would mark the beginning of about a 5% post election rally over the ensuing three to six months.

Two professionals who agree are market guru Elaine Garzarelli, head of institutional research firm Garzarelli Capital, and Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist of D.A. Davidson & Co. in Great Falls, Mont. Both had originally told me a win for Senator Kerry represented bum tidings for the market. In the event of such a victory, Ms. Garzarelli forecasts a 4%-7% decline, while Mr. Dickson predicts a 5%-10% plunge.

Now, though, both feel a potential Kerry win is already reflected in current stock prices. Ms. Garzarelli, for example, thinks the idea Mr. Kerry might win has already caused her projected 4%-7% corrections. Quite bullish, she contends the S &P 500 is 20% undervalued based on current long-term interest rates and that the certainty of having an election winner, which she views as quite positive for the market, could help produce a 20% gain over the next 12 months, assuming no recession.

Mr. Dickson, noting that many of his institutional clients are quite nervous about the election, believes they will not only breathe a sigh of relief once a clear-cut winner is determined, but also begin to put much of their high cash reserves to work. He figures the revelation of a non-challenged winner would spark an instant Dow rally of 300-400 points.

The bad: The election becomes deadlocked, and like the 2000 election, the final outcome is made by state and federal courts after a lengthy delay. “You can be sure another hung election wouldn’t be greeted favorably in Wall Street,” Mr. Dickson said. He thinks such a scenario would lead to a fast 3%- 5% selloff in stock prices.

Investment strategist Bill Rhodes of Boston-based Rhodes Analytics notes he’s read newspaper accounts about certain towns in Ohio where more people are registered to vote than there are people living there. “It’s possible,” he believes, “things could get ugly, with lots of fights and rankle that could easily last into December or January.” If it happens, he adds, the market would take it on the chin, and stocks, which have been in a downtrend since March, could accelerate their decline during the rest of the year. Mr. Rhodes figures if the results of a state race wind up with a margin of error, of say 2% to 3%, there will be challenges galore. And with the polls pointing to a horserace, that’s the likely scenario, he said.

The ugly: The Democrats snare both the White House and Senate. Money manager Raymond Stahler of London based Stahler Dearborn, Ltd., believes this would conjure fears of rising taxes, a tougher regulatory environment for business, and spell ill tidings for holders of drug and defense stocks. Such a scenario, he thinks, would likely lead to a speedy 5%-8% selloff in the major averages and result in a falling market for the balance of 2004.

Money manager Leonard Mohr of Los Angeles-based MCR Associates also thinks a Democratic sweep (of the White House and the Senate) would slam the market. “If it happens, I think you can write off 2005,” he said.

In contrast, one Bush-basher, money manager Joan Lappin of Gramercy Capital Management, challenges the view of many that a Bush loss would be bad for stock prices. “The market has already accepted the fact the president may not win,” she said. “With the economy doing badly, the war not going well, and oil close to its all-time high, I think he’s a loser,” she added. One reason Ms. Lappin sees the market rising in the face of a Kerry win is her expectation that Kerry as president would cease adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which she notes America has done at the rate of 1 million barrels a week since shortly after September 11, 2001. Such a move, she believes, would trigger a sharp decline in the price of oil and a hefty rise in stock prices.