Bridge Collapse: Crisis and Opportunity
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

When we were young, we played hide and seek. Now, as grown-ups, many of us are trying to play the same game on Wall Street, hiding from the most vulnerable stocks in a dangerous roller-coaster market and seeking industries that offer the best rebound candidates once the market calms down, as it inevitably will.
A smart way to play this game is by capitalizing on a crisis. On Wall Street, crises often breed opportunity. Our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, have been a boon for defense and defense-related stocks. Terrorism fears have pumped up the share prices of security firms, and the worldwide shortage of water has sparked big gains in water stocks.
The latest crisis, the bridge tragedy in Minneapolis, is thought to present another such opportunity, as it spotlights the need to beef up the nation’s infrastructure, including highways, railroads, bridges, ports, pipelines, and power generation facilities.
An infrastructure buildup is by no means only a possibility but a sure thing, as the world becomes more urbanized and demand increases for the products and services provided by cyclical companies, such as steel, energy, transportation, metals, and natural resources.
“An infrastructure rebuilding boom is on the way, and it should give cyclical [industries] a second wind,” a money manager at London-based Raab Associates, Marcus Raab, tells me. “They’re not cheapies, but it’s where the sustained action will be once sanity returns to the market.”
Some of Mr. Raab’s favorite cyclical stocks — those he expects to outperform the market over the next couple of years — are U.S. Steel, United Technologies, Deere, and Caterpillar.
He’s right that the stocks are not cheapies. The first wind has demonstrated that. Over the past two years, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index has nearly doubled the performances of both the S&P 500 and Wilshire 2000 indexes.
A veteran investment adviser and research chief of the wellregarded Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter, Richard Moroney, concurs, though he argues that the trend is still up for many cyclical stocks, with the big kick coming from “the great urbanization of emerging countries.” In particular, he points to China, noting that in 1980 more than 80% of its population resided in rural areas. Today it’s closer to 60%, and by 2030 some estimates peg the figure on the way to 40%. A similar urbanization trend is occurring in India and other emerging nations.
Another infrastructure bull, Merrill Lynch, supports this view. It estimates that infrastructure spending in emerging nations over the next three years will exceed $1 trillion, with much of it going to cyclical companies with operations in construction equipment, cement, heavy machinery, and oil field equipment.
Mr. Moroney favors four cyclical companies, each of which he feels has the potential to rack up a 15% to 20% gain over the next 12 months. They are a leading global provider of overnight door-to-door package delivery services, FedEx; Freeport McMoRan, which became the world’s largest publicly traded copper company with its acquisition of Phelps Dodge in March; a leader in oil and gas drilling equipment and oilfield services, National Oilwell Varco; and America’s largest oil petroleum refinery, Valero Energy.
Speaking of hide and seek, Mr. Moroney advises hiding from such stocks as Boston Scientific, Ford Motor, and Kraft Foods, all of which he rates as sales.
He points out that medical device maker Boston Scientific faces a raft of problems, among them a slowing sales growth, a decline in per-share profits in each of the last eight quarters, and falling profit estimates in the wake of a weak June quarter. Further, the shares trade at a rich 28 times year-ahead estimates.
Ford shares performed well recently, spurred by speculation about of a stock sale by the Ford family and stronger than expected March quarter results. Still, Ford continues to lose money, Mr. Moroney points out, and despite rising earnings estimates it is not expected to turn a profit until 2009. Without major concessions from Ford’s unions, however, even profits in 2009 seem unlikely, he said. In addition, the company is losing market share to Japanese rivals and is thought to be poorly positioned in some market segments.
Kraft Foods has fallen 6% since its former parent, Altria, announced a spinoff in January. Profit margins have declined steadily over most of the last four years. At 18 times projected 2007 earnings, Mr. Moroney feels Kraft shares appear too expensive for the weak growth they are likely to deliver.