Burt Manning, a former chief executive of advertising biggie J. Walter Thomson who is now chairman emeritus, consistently mixes with the who’s who of the business and investment world. He sits on several boards and is incisive, informed, and respected. During a recent chat, he raised some frightening issues.

“I can’t remember when there were so many plausible gloom-and-doom scenarios out there to which nobody seems to be giving much credibility or a damn about,” he said. Dangers are being ignored as though they didn’t exist, he said, noting that businesses are barreling ahead with aggressive expansion plans, developers are constructing more and more new buildings in a weakening real estate environment, and investors are pouring billions into the market even though leading indexes are hovering around multiyear highs.

“There’s unquenchable optimism and unbelievable confidence out there despite the unknowns and imponderables,” he said. “People seem to be living on Cloud Cuckoo, believing that whatever bad happens, it’ll be okay because we’ll just muddle through.”

In effect, Mr. Manning, a member of the Advertising Hall of Fame who is widely credited with saving J. Walter Thomson during its dark period in 1987, argues we’re all ignoring the geopolitical and financial risks around us, which, if they become a reality, could wreak havoc. In particular, Mr. Manning, points to:

* The possibility of another terrorist attack on American shores, which practically everyone says is coming;

* The enormous number of unfunded pension plans besides GM’s;

* The surging debt level, especially among those Americans overextended on credit-card and home borrowing;

* The possibility that the immigration issue could go the wrong way and the 11 million illegals who are living from hand to mouth can’t pay their back taxes;

* The possibility that China or Japan will stop lending us money;

* Interest rates may go higher than we think (the dollar has risen four weeks running on speculation of more rate hikes);

* The frantic merger and acquisition activity, which is saddling companies with huge and swelling debt;

* The agony of Iraq, which looks like it’s a never-ending situation (the price tag for Iraq and Afghanistan is running roughly $7 billion a month and could rise this year an estimated 18%, to $118 billion from last year);

* The possibility that America could be forced to take military action against Iran, which, according to Middle East experts, is clearly bent on taking over Iraq;

* And the potholes in real estate – notably, the public’s vulnerability to the huge number of low-cost introductory mortgages in the face of further interest rate increases. (Foreclosures already are on the rise and forecasts are making the rounds that mortgage rates could climb three or four points over the next couple of years.)

A strong case can be made for every one of these very realistic dangers, Mr. Manning contended. “Let’s hope not, but we could be on the verge of a national disaster,” he told me. “Maybe things will be just fine, but maybe not.” In any event, he said, “The sum of all fears here is strangely optimism.”

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Best ETF bets: With the number of ETFs (exchange-traded funds) exploding (they boast total assets of about $320 billion, up around 207% from three years ago), what are the best buys among the roughly 220 currently being offered in America?

I put that question to Sander Gerber, chairman of XTF Advisors, a financial services company that provides advice on ETFs and manages ETF portfolios. ETFs are essentially a single security representing a basket of stocks that tracks an index. They’re somewhat like a mutual fund, and their chief appeal is lower fees than mutual funds, tax efficiencies, a daily reporting of holdings (mutual funds are reported quarterly), and greater flexibility (unlike open-end mutual funds, which are purchased and sold at the end of each day, you can buy and sell ETFs during the trading day). Likewise, since most ETFs hold a variety of equities, investors transcend the single stock risk.

Mr. Gerber, who sees no letup in the ETF explosion, figures the number of such domestic funds should climb to 300 before year-end, about a 33% increase from current levels. Here are his three favorite ETFs:

* iShares MSCI EAFE Index Trust ($65.20): It tracks securities in Europe, Asia, and the Far East. An 18% to 24% gain is seen over the next 12 months.

* iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund ($14.48): It tracks the Japanese market. A 9% to 12% increase is pegged a year out.

* S&P Depository Trust ($128.71): This index, known as “spiders,” tracks the S &P 500. A 15% to 20% rise is Mr. Gerber’s projection over the next 12 months.

dandordan@aol.com