Catch a Falling BRIC: Four Countries To Invest In

Almost 50 years ago, the no. 1 song in the country, recorded by Perry Como, was “Catch a Falling Star.”Relating that song to Wall Street — notably, the recent sharp and frightening sell-off in the somewhat faltering emerging markets — veteran investment adviser Richard Moroney says he thinks a more appropriate title might be “Catch a Falling BRIC.” He is referring, of course, to investing in the four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China.Catching a falling BRIC is easier said than done. A strong stomach is needed after the Dow’s bloody February 27 decline of 416 points, triggered by the wicked 9.2% plunge that day in the Shanghai/Shenzhen Index.The Shanghi drop — accompanied by widespread Wall Street warnings about further skids in the emerging markets — has scared a lot of investors away from the EMs. That’s despite their huge gains in recent years, a subsequent recovery of more than 10% in the Shanghi index, and a rebound in many EMs.Fans do abound. On Wall Street, big sell-offs often offer potential for big rebounds. That, in fact, is what editor Tony Sagami of Asia Stock Alert, a monthly newsletter out of Bigfork, Mont., expects from the EMs. He views the recent selloff as an excellent buying opportunity.Although a bull on China over the long run, Mr. Sagami says he thinks it should be avoided near term. China has had a good run, but the easy money is gone and a further correction could be in the cards, he says. What bothers him? For starters, the recent American imposition of trade tariffs on glossy paper from China, the first such action in two decades. It could be the leadoff salvo in a dangerous trade war, Mr. Sagami says. Another worry: China is tightening its money supply, having raised interest rates six times in the past 12 months, which, as everyone knows, stifles economic growth.His strategy: Except for isolated cases, don’t invest in China near term, but in China’s neighbors. One exception is the Big Board-listed New Oriental Education & Technology, which, he notes, is teaching English to Chinese who want a piece of the American dream and whose shares he sees rising about 50% during the next 12 months.A similar 12-month increase is projected for Taiwan-based Garmin, a world leader in global positioning technology (such as a system in a rental car that gives directions or one that pinpoints a lost pet that has been implanted with a chip). An even bigger gain in that period, a double, is seen in Singapore-based Hyflux, the world’s leading desalination company.Another EM bull is Hong Kong-based HK Investments Ltd. Its global analyst, Yasser Ahlarr, observes that “everyone knows EMs will be the world’s fastest-growing markets over the next five years,” which means, he believes, “every portfolio should be there to some degree.”What about the increased risks and volatility? “It’s a more volatile world, and that translates into more volatility in every financial market,” he says. “If you don’t want volatility, buy a T-bill.”Mr. Moroney, editor of the Dow Theory Forecasts of Hammond, Ind., is also pitching EMs, primarily through BRICs. But some weakness has been creeping in. He points, in particular, to the Dow Jones BRIC Index — comprising 50 companies from the four BRIC countries — which underwent a 7% decline in early 2007 after a 63% jump last year and an annualized 37% sprint during the three years ended in February. He says he thinks the index could be struck by more downside action, given its eye-popping gains in recent years.That raises an obvious SOS — maybe it’s too early to catch those falling BRICs.Mr. Moroney disagrees, arguing that for investors who can cope with volatility, the BRIC countries are appealing. He especially favors the purchase of BRIC companies via American Depository Receipts or securities of foreign countries listed on American exchanges.While he’s not specifically recommending any such stocks, he feels a couple of prominent names are worth considering, such as Infosys Technologies, a technology services company based in India, and Hong Kong-based China Mobile, the largest provider of mobile telephone services to mainland China. Yet another option for BRIC investors is said to be Claymore/BNY BRIC, an exchangetraded fund listed on the American Stock Exchange, which invests in 75 companies in the BRIC countries.It’s not, though, a one-way street for EMs, or at least so says Los Angeles day trader Arnold Silver, who also manages about $90 million of assets of wealthy individuals. Pointing to investors’ exuberant economic expectations for the EMs — in some cases GDP growth of 8% to 10% — he argues that any shortfall or signs of slowing could decimate these markets. “It’s a dangerous game and there’s no clear evidence the roller coaster ride is over; I’d stay away until the dust clears,” he says.dandordan@aol.com

Catch a Falling BRIC: Four Countries To Invest In

Catch a Falling BRIC: Four Countries To Invest In

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