Here’s a great prediction. When asked recently about the near-term outlook for retailing, Robert Wildrick, the chief executive of Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (Nasdaq symbol JOSB, $39) said, “Higher energy prices are going to make people turn down their thermostats. It’s going to be a good year for sweaters and outerwear.”

Common sense always plays well in our overly complicated world. Mr. Wildrick, who recently participated in a seminar called “Adapt and Win… Strategies for Success,” hosted by the Fashion Institute of Technology, seems to overflow with sense, not all of it common. Maybe that’s why his company’s stock has been such a winner in recent years.

Indeed, Mr. Wildrick points out with some glee that Jos. A. Bank’s stock has been one of Nasdaq’s top performers in the past five years, and has handily outperformed other retailers such as Polo and Coach since 1999, not to mention Intel and Microsoft. That’s pretty impressive when you consider that not too long ago many had written off menswear altogether.

Remember the 1990s trend toward casual wear? All those folks in Silicon Valley showing up for meetings in blue jeans and T-shirts, throwing the fear of God into Wall Street types who were incapable of coordinating casual wear and who had closets full of bespoke suits. The demise of the suit was widely heralded – a pretty scary prospect for Jos. A. Bank, which in 1996 derived 42% of revenues from that category.

Mr. Wildrick took over management of Jos. A. Bank in 1999. The company, long known for traditional (even stodgy) men’s clothing, was struggling. Mr. Wildrick, who had served on the board and who came from a department store background, quickly assembled a new management team and began to implement a strategy for growth.

According to Susan Sansbury, who follows the company for Miller Tabak & Company and who has been recommending the stock since it hit a bump last year, there were two main ingredients to the company’s turnaround. One was eliminating the middleman and going directly to overseas suppliers. This move allowed the company to control design and production more tightly, not only resulting in lower costs but also higher quality. Consequently, management could expand into higher-priced lines. These changes, according to Ms. Sansbury, “have had a dramatic positive effect on margins.”

Mr. Wildrick describes four pillars of management: quality, service, in stock, and innovation. The company raised the quality of its goods by selecting and working directly with suppliers. Today, 90% of the company’s products are produced outside America, including 27% in China.

Management stresses a high level of service in the stores, such as typically having a tailor on premises. Also, Jos. A. Bank prides itself on carrying unusually high inventories, which in turn allow it to promise customers immediate gratification. A fellow who comes in looking for two new white dress shirts can do so with confidence.

Finally, the company continues to expand its line, lowering its dependence on suits, which today account for only 26% of sales, and adding casual wear items. It has also produced garments featuring new materials, some based on nanotechnology. For instance, they are working currently with a NASA-designed material that incorporates a cooling effect. This could be a big hit if high energy costs also mean turning thermostats up next summer.

The company has increasingly positioned itself at the high end of the market. Their typical customer is a married professional earning $100,000 to $125,000 a year. To court this shopper, Jos. A. Bank came out with two premium lines in recent years, the Signature and Signature Gold lines. It appears their customer, notwithstanding his commercial success, is also slightly accident-prone. One of the innovations that has been quite successful is a line of slacks and shirts made with materials that are stain resistant and wrinkle-free.

The upshot of these changes is a company that has reported 16 consecutive record quarters and seen net income compound at 70% over the past five years. Management has aggressively brought on new stores, which today number close to 300, and plans to open another 200 by January 2008. Jos. A. Bank has also built up catalog and Internet sales.

Growth has been funded internally, and free cash flow has been sufficient to pay down debt, which is quite low. Analysts are generally positive on the shares, which today sell at about 18 times current year projected earnings and about 15 times next year’s consensus estimate of $2.61 a share.

Still, there are doubters. The short interest in the stock is reasonably high – currently about 27%, the CFO, David Ullman, said, down from a high of 44% last year. What are investors concerned about? Ms. Sansbury suggests that some view the company’s inventories as chronically high, a concern that suggests a lack of understanding of the menswear business. Fashions in this arena do not change overnight, and the convenience of having items in stock is key.

The short-sellers may also be focusing on the ultimate build-out to 500 stores, and asking themselves, what then? Since the company serves a fairly small segment of the market, expansion does have some limits. Recent data collected by management suggests they may be able to build beyond 500 stores, but it is not certain.

Meanwhile, the company has talked about acquisition possibilities. Retailing is a huge industry, with innumerable sectors. Though there is no way of knowing what direction management might take, investors might be wise to give them some credit for the job they’ve done with Jos. A. Bank.