Chances Slim for a Fed Rate Cut, Insiders Say

Hidden land mines, a perennial Wall Street risk, may apply Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day meeting to determine whether it will raise short-term rates. An informal poll by yours truly, however, finds that any rate hike is unlikely, a conclusion seconded by the Fed fund futures, which suggest an 8% shot of a boost.“I doubt there will be a rate increase,” a Los Angeles money manager, Arnold Silver of A. Silver Associates, says, “but if I’m wrong, there will be hell to pay on Wall Street.”A trader at London-based Stahler, Dearborn, Ltd., Dennis Healey, concurs. He says the Dow, in response to a rate increase this week, will tumble at least 150 points, and perhaps as much as 300 points. On the other hand, if, as he expects, the Fed forgoes a rate hike, the market most likely will react positively.“They won’t raise rates because the economy’s too shaky,” a professor of economics at the University of Maryland, Peter Morici, tells me. “A rate boost would only exacerbate the economic slowdown, and it wouldn’t impact inflation because it won’t lower rising oil prices.”He says he also doubts that the Fed will even signal a potential rate increase, given the potential market damage from such an admonition. At most, he says, this week’s meeting could produce little more than some jawboning about inflation risks.Mr. Morici rejects the idea that the Fed might initiate several rate hikes before year-end — say, a total of 50 to 75 basis points — to calm inflation fears, arguing instead that a weak economy should preclude such action. Actually, he doesn’t expect a rate hike until late this year or early 2009.This reflects his view that slow or no economic growth lies immediately ahead. His latest outlook calls for the gross domestic product to decline 0.4% in the current quarter, followed by a 1.8% rise in the third quarter. For all of 2008, he envisions a 1.3% GDP gain, well below last year’s growth of 2.2%.“Forget about a rate increase for now,” the chief investment strategist of Great Falls, Mont.-based D.A. Davidson & Co., Fred Dickson, says. “I can’t imagine one until home prices begin to stabilize.”Many pros don’t see any such stabilization until later this year or early 2009. A former head of the St. Louis Fed, William Poole, suggests it could even take longer, predicting “a lot more housing pain” and another 15% to 20% drop in home prices before the market strengthens.The chief economist of Raymond James Financial, Scott Brown, also views a rate hike as improbable, given renewed pressure on consumers from the end of the rebate checks and high energy prices.Standard & Poor’s chief economist, David Wyss, rules out a rate hike this week, telling me, “It’s clear the Fed will do nothing.” His reasoning: Some recent economic numbers are coming in better than expected, notably retail sales and factory orders. Likewise, he notes, while unemployment numbers are bad, they’re not as bad as expected. His GDP outlook: respective growth of 0.2% in the current quarter and 1.3% in the third quarter. The economy, he believes, won’t bottom out until the first quarter of 2009, which should coincide with the worst part of the recession.An analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., Michael Larson, also doubts a Wednesday rate boost, citing political pressures and a slowdown in economic activity. But he views a non-hike as merely a temporary reprieve, given what he says are “awful inflation figures” that strongly suggest a rate increase at either the August 5 or September 16 Fed meeting. Those awful figures he’s referring to are May’s import prices, which rose at a record 17.8% annual rate (versus a 12-month 3% increase in May 2007), and a 4.2% rise in the latest consumer prices, which is near its high end of recent years.Still, several pros think it would be dumb to rule out a rate hike, given increasing inflation fears by a growing number of current and former Fed officials. The head of the Dallas Fed, Richard Fisher, signaled the central bank’s concerns recently, warning that he expected the Fed to raise rates sooner than later, even in the face of an anemic American economy, if inflation expectations continue to worsen (which they have). Likewise, Mr. Poole is urging speedy action to temper inflation.If the Fed were to take such action, it would mark a sharp policy reversal from one of its most aggressive rate-reduction campaigns ever, a period between mid-September and today, in which it relentlessly knocked down rates to 2% from 5.25%A warning: Whenever there’s a consensus, as is the case now with the expectation of no rate boost, the opposite often occurs.dandordan@aol.com

Chances Slim for a Fed Rate Cut, Insiders Say

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