China May Announce Revaluation of Yuan Today

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The New York Sun

BEIJING – No one, not even emperors, has ever eaten in the Temple of Heaven’s Hall of Prayers for Good Harvests. However, tonight a banquet will be held there for the opening session of the Fortune Global Forum. Such a break with tradition is a strong message about the importance China has attached to this event.


The opening night address will be from Hu Jintao, the president of China. Rumor has it that he may take this opportunity to revalue China’s undervalued currency, the renminbi, or yuan, which would please the corporate community and the American government.


There has been increasing pressure on a number of fronts for the Chinese to float, or at least repeg the yuan. Alternatively, some are advising the Chinese to link their currency to a basket of currencies, severing its tie to the dollar.


Most observers estimate that the yuan is 15% to 30% undervalued. In an odd, unannounced development, the yuan was allowed to float for a brief period (about 20 minutes) on April 29, and its almost instant climb from 8.277 to the dollar to 8.2700 was taken as proof of undervaluation.


The Fortune Global Forum, a gathering of business leaders from around the world, will run from today to May 18.


The attendance of so many CEOs confirms that the enthusiasm is on both sides. Hundreds have signed up, including Charles Prince of Citigroup, Richard Parsons from Time Warner, G. Richard Wagoner of GM, Philip Purcell, who needs no introduction and is probably thrilled to be away from home, Antonio Perez of Eastman Kodak, and many, many others. Most leading Chinese business and government heads are attending as well.


Because no fires are allowed in the Hall of Prayers for Good Harvests, kitchens must be set up elsewhere to accommodate the 100 chefs who will present the banquet.


At a recent breakfast forum in Manhattan put on by Crain’s New York, a standing-room-only audience quizzed the panelists about the opportunities and challenges facing those interested in partaking of the great Asian economic banquet.


The message? There is a huge upside to doing business in China, but also considerable risk.


Anthony Murthy of HSBC Securities reviewed the stats: 10 years of 8% annual GDP growth (including the 1998 Asian financial crisis); 1.3 billion people; 5,000 of Wal-Mart’s 6,000 suppliers (Wal-Mart is a bigger trading partner than the U.K.); 21% of its exports go to America; 130 million people in an emerging middle class, offering substantial domestic economic opportunities, and so on.


As impressive as the raw numbers are, more stunning is the consensus view that China today competes on quality, and not just on cheap prices. Bud Konheim, head of Nicole Miller, spoke of his long involvement in China, where he gradually moved the firm’s manufacturing as the infrastructure of the apparel business moved east.


According to Mr. Konheim, “Everything works in China. It’s not about low cost. They have the work ethic, the entrepreneurial spirit.”


Virginia Kamsky of KAI, which does investment banking and consulting for companies wishing to do business in China, echoed Mr. Konheim’s enthusiasm for the country, where she has worked and lived part-time since 1978.


However, she also cautioned listeners “not to leave your common sense at the border.” She advised against signing unprofitable deals just to get a foot in the door. Typically, a business relationship will not get any easier over time.


When she first came to China, Ms. Kamsky represented Chase Manhattan, and became adept at guiding American firms to the Chinese companies licensed to do business with foreigners. There were only nine. Now there are thousands.


Both Mr. Konheim and Ms. Kamsky reminisced about arriving in the late 1970s at Beijing’s airport, which consisted at the time of one room. Luggage was dispensed to horse-drawn carts. Ms. Kamsky remembers driving into Beijing as ranks of soldiers lined the roadsides shooting birds out of the sky. Mao had determined that birds were “bourgeois” and had to be eliminated.


How times have changed. Travelers arriving at Beijing airport today disembark into cavernous marble terminals. Delegates arriving for the Fortune forum are whisked away to one of several VIP rooms, where customs and immigration necessities are undertaken while tea is served.


Driving into Beijing today, there are no avian assassins. Instead, there are red banners lining the highway celebrating the Fortune forum. Construction cranes are literally everywhere, giving some clue as to why the country is gobbling up so much steel.


Designer stores fill hotel lobbies and seemingly endless numbers of teenagers cram boutiques that are open late and gaudily advertised with brilliant neon signs. Zoning does not appear to have caught on.


Nor has smog control. The air quality is very poor, limiting visibility, and making the visitor grateful for air conditioning. This may be one area the country will want to address before hosting the Olympics in 2008. Supposedly, the government has plans to shut down substantial coal-burning facilities to help the situation.


Word on the street is that as many as a million people may be “relocated” out of Beijing to make room for the buildings required by Olympic organizers.


The New York Sun

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